Key Events This Week
29 Dec: Golden Cross formation signalling potential bullish breakout
30 Dec: Death Cross formation and Mojo Grade upgraded to Hold
31 Dec: Mildly bearish technical shift amid market volatility
2 Jan: Stock closes at Rs.1,729.75, up 2.17% on the day
29 December 2025: Golden Cross Signals Potential Bullish Breakout
On Monday, Oberoi Realty Ltd formed a Golden Cross, a significant technical indicator where the 50-day moving average crossed above the 200-day moving average. This event is widely regarded as a bullish signal, suggesting a shift in momentum towards an upward trend. Despite the stock closing lower at Rs.1,669.10, down 0.61% on the day, the Golden Cross indicated that the stock might be poised for a sustained rally after a period of underperformance relative to the Sensex.
The Golden Cross was accompanied by mixed technical signals: daily moving averages turned mildly bullish, while weekly and monthly indicators such as MACD and Bollinger Bands remained bearish or neutral. Oberoi Realty’s valuation at a P/E of 27.18, below the industry average of 39.93, further suggested potential undervaluation amid improving momentum. The stock’s long-term returns remain robust, with a 96.47% gain over three years and 540.32% over ten years, underscoring its growth potential despite recent challenges.
30 December 2025: Death Cross Emerges Amid Mixed Technicals and Mojo Upgrade
Contrasting Monday’s optimism, Tuesday saw Oberoi Realty form a Death Cross, where the 50-day moving average crossed below the 200-day moving average, signalling a potential bearish trend. The stock declined further to Rs.1,646.55, down 1.35%, underperforming the Sensex’s marginal 0.01% drop. This technical deterioration reflected weakening momentum and raised caution about near-term price action.
However, on the same day, MarketsMOJO upgraded Oberoi Realty’s rating from Sell to Hold, citing improving technical indicators and a strong quarterly financial performance. The company reported a 46.2% increase in net sales to ₹1,779.04 crore in Q2 FY25-26 and record operating profits, signalling operational recovery. Despite the Death Cross, the upgrade reflected a balanced view recognising stabilisation amid volatility.
Valuation remained expensive on a price-to-book basis at 3.6 times, but discounted relative to peers. Promoter share pledging at 75.33% remained a cautionary factor. The stock’s long-term returns continued to outpace the Sensex, with 89.26% over three years and 531.54% over ten years, supporting the Hold rating amid mixed signals.
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31 December 2025: Mildly Bearish Technical Shift Amid Market Volatility
On Wednesday, Oberoi Realty faced a mildly bearish technical shift, closing at Rs.1,670.85, up 1.48% but reflecting caution in momentum indicators. The MACD showed bearish trends on weekly and monthly charts, while Bollinger Bands indicated increased selling pressure. Daily moving averages turned bearish, signalling resistance to upward moves in the short term.
Despite these bearish signals, longer-term indicators such as the Know Sure Thing (KST) remained bullish weekly, and Dow Theory assessments were mildly bullish on both weekly and monthly scales. On-Balance Volume (OBV) suggested tentative accumulation monthly, indicating some underlying support. The stock’s 52-week range between Rs.1,440.05 and Rs.2,342.95 placed the current price nearer the lower end, reinforcing the cautious outlook.
Volume was notably low at 8,164 shares, reflecting subdued trading interest amid volatility. The stock’s underperformance relative to the Sensex over the past year remained a concern, but its long-term outperformance continued to provide a foundation for potential recovery.
2 January 2026: Strong Finish with 2.17% Gain Amid Positive Market Sentiment
Oberoi Realty closed the week on a strong note, rising 2.17% to Rs.1,729.75 on Friday, outperforming the Sensex’s 0.81% gain. The stock’s volume increased to 19,148 shares, signalling renewed buying interest. This rally capped a week of technical fluctuations, with the stock recovering from earlier bearish signals and the Death Cross formation.
The positive close aligned with improving market sentiment and the recent Mojo upgrade, suggesting that investors are cautiously optimistic about the stock’s near-term prospects. The stock’s weekly high matched the closing price on Friday, indicating strong resistance clearance and potential for further momentum if supported by fundamentals and sector tailwinds.
| Date | Stock Price | Day Change | Sensex | Day Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-29 | Rs.1,669.10 | -0.61% | 37,140.23 | -0.41% |
| 2025-12-30 | Rs.1,646.55 | -1.35% | 37,135.83 | -0.01% |
| 2025-12-31 | Rs.1,670.85 | +1.48% | 37,443.41 | +0.83% |
| 2026-01-01 | Rs.1,693.05 | +1.33% | 37,497.10 | +0.14% |
| 2026-01-02 | Rs.1,729.75 | +2.17% | 37,799.57 | +0.81% |
Key Takeaways
Positive Signals: The Golden Cross formation on 29 December marked a significant bullish technical milestone, suggesting a potential trend reversal. The MarketsMOJO upgrade to Hold on 30 December reflected improving financials and stabilising technicals. The stock’s strong finish on 2 January with a 2.17% gain and increased volume indicated renewed investor interest. Long-term returns remain robust, with three- and ten-year gains far exceeding the Sensex.
Cautionary Signals: The Death Cross formation on 30 December and the mildly bearish technical shift on 31 December highlighted near-term momentum challenges. Daily moving averages and MACD indicators showed bearish tendencies, while promoter share pledging at 75.33% remains a risk factor. The stock’s valuation, though discounted relative to peers, remains expensive on a price-to-book basis. Recent underperformance relative to the Sensex over one year and year-to-date periods underscores sectoral and company-specific headwinds.
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Conclusion
Oberoi Realty Ltd’s week was defined by contrasting technical signals and a cautious but improving outlook. The formation of both Golden and Death Crosses within days illustrated the stock’s volatility and the delicate balance between bullish and bearish momentum. The MarketsMOJO upgrade to Hold and strong quarterly financials provided a foundation for optimism, while the mildly bearish technical shift and valuation concerns counsel prudence.
Overall, the stock outperformed the Sensex with a 3.00% weekly gain, supported by a strong finish on 2 January. Investors should monitor upcoming price action and volume trends closely, balancing the positive long-term growth record against near-term technical challenges. The evolving technical landscape suggests that selective opportunities may arise, but disciplined risk management remains essential amid ongoing market uncertainties.
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