Recent Price Movement and Market Context
On 20 Feb 2026, Oberoi Realty’s share price closed at ₹1,503.40, down 2.62% from the previous close of ₹1,543.80. The intraday range saw a high of ₹1,536.95 and a low of ₹1,496.40, indicating heightened volatility. The stock remains well below its 52-week high of ₹2,006.25 but comfortably above its 52-week low of ₹1,425.75. This price action reflects a cautious market stance amid broader sectoral pressures in the realty industry.
Technical Trend Analysis: Mixed Signals Across Timeframes
Oberoi Realty’s technical trend has shifted from outright bearish to mildly bearish, signalling a tentative attempt at stabilisation. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains bearish on the weekly chart, while the monthly MACD has softened to mildly bearish. This suggests that while short-term momentum is weak, longer-term momentum is showing signs of potential improvement.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) presents a contrasting picture: weekly RSI readings are bullish, indicating some short-term buying interest and potential for a rebound, whereas the monthly RSI remains neutral with no clear signal. This divergence between weekly and monthly RSI underscores the stock’s current indecision and the need for investors to monitor momentum closely.
Moving Averages and Bollinger Bands
Daily moving averages continue to exert bearish pressure, with the stock trading below key averages, reinforcing the short-term downtrend. Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart are bearish, reflecting increased volatility and downward price pressure. On the monthly scale, Bollinger Bands are mildly bearish, consistent with the broader technical trend of tentative weakness but not outright decline.
Additional Technical Indicators: KST, Dow Theory, and OBV
The Know Sure Thing (KST) oscillator remains bearish on the weekly timeframe but has improved to mildly bearish on the monthly chart, aligning with the MACD’s signals. Dow Theory readings are mildly bullish weekly, suggesting some underlying strength in price action, though the monthly Dow Theory shows no definitive trend. Meanwhile, On-Balance Volume (OBV) is mildly bullish weekly, indicating that volume trends may be supporting price stability in the near term, though monthly OBV remains neutral.
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Comparative Performance Versus Sensex
Oberoi Realty’s recent returns have lagged the benchmark Sensex across multiple periods. Over the past week, the stock declined by 3.99% compared to Sensex’s 1.41% fall. The one-month return shows a sharper drop of 8.98% against Sensex’s modest 0.90% decline. Year-to-date, Oberoi Realty is down 10.02%, significantly underperforming the Sensex’s 3.19% fall. Even over the one-year horizon, the stock has declined 6.06% while the Sensex gained 8.64%.
However, Oberoi Realty’s long-term performance remains impressive, with a three-year return of 74.54% versus Sensex’s 35.24%, a five-year return of 163.94% compared to Sensex’s 62.11%, and a remarkable ten-year return of 564.78% against Sensex’s 247.96%. This long-term outperformance highlights the company’s strong fundamentals and growth trajectory despite recent technical setbacks.
Mojo Score and Grade Revision
MarketsMOJO has downgraded Oberoi Realty’s Mojo Grade from Hold to Sell as of 5 Jan 2026, reflecting the deteriorating technical outlook and near-term risks. The current Mojo Score stands at 42.0, signalling weak momentum and caution for investors. The Market Cap Grade is 2, indicating a mid-tier valuation relative to peers. This downgrade aligns with the bearish daily moving averages and weekly MACD signals, reinforcing the need for prudence.
Investment Implications and Outlook
Investors should weigh Oberoi Realty’s mixed technical signals carefully. The weekly bullish RSI and mildly bullish Dow Theory and OBV readings suggest potential for short-term relief rallies. However, the prevailing bearish MACD, moving averages, and Bollinger Bands caution against aggressive accumulation at current levels. The stock’s underperformance relative to the Sensex in recent months further emphasises the need for selective exposure.
Long-term investors may find value in Oberoi Realty’s strong multi-year returns and sector positioning, but should remain vigilant for confirmation of a sustained technical turnaround before increasing allocations. Monitoring weekly and monthly momentum indicators will be critical to gauge the stock’s next directional move.
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Summary
Oberoi Realty Ltd’s technical parameters reveal a nuanced momentum shift, with bearish trends dominating daily and weekly charts but some mildly bullish signals emerging on monthly timeframes. The downgrade to a Sell rating by MarketsMOJO reflects these technical challenges, despite the company’s strong long-term performance and sector fundamentals. Investors should adopt a cautious stance, balancing short-term risks with the stock’s potential for recovery, and consider alternative opportunities within the realty sector as identified by leading market analysts.
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