Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Ltd. Faces Bearish Momentum Amid Technical Downgrade

Technical Momentum and Indicator Analysis

ONGC’s current price stands at ₹240.00, down 1.23% from the previous close of ₹243.00, with intraday trading ranging between ₹239.50 and ₹245.20. The stock remains below its 52-week high of ₹270.55 but comfortably above its 52-week low of ₹205.00. Despite this, the technical landscape has deteriorated, signalling increased selling pressure.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator presents a bearish outlook on both weekly and monthly charts, with the weekly MACD firmly bearish and the monthly indicator mildly bearish. This suggests that the stock’s momentum is weakening over both short and medium terms, with the weekly trend indicating more immediate downside risk.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), however, remains neutral with no clear signal on either the weekly or monthly timeframe. This lack of momentum in the RSI implies that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold, leaving room for further directional movement based on other technical factors.

Bollinger Bands reinforce the bearish sentiment, showing the stock trading near the lower band on both weekly and monthly charts. This positioning often indicates increased volatility and potential downward pressure, as the price tests support levels.

Moving Averages and Trend Confirmation

Daily moving averages have turned bearish, with the stock trading below its key short-term and medium-term averages. This alignment confirms the downward momentum and suggests that the recent price action is not a temporary pullback but part of a broader negative trend.

The Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator, which aggregates multiple momentum signals, also signals bearishness on both weekly and monthly charts. This further corroborates the weakening trend and highlights the risk of continued downside in the near term.

Dow Theory assessments show no clear trend on the weekly chart but mildly bearish conditions on the monthly chart, indicating that while short-term direction is uncertain, the medium-term outlook is increasingly negative.

On-Balance Volume (OBV) analysis reveals no significant trend on the weekly scale but mildly bearish signals monthly, suggesting that volume flow is not supporting price advances and may be contributing to the downward pressure.

Comparative Performance and Market Context

Despite the recent technical deterioration, ONGC’s longer-term returns remain impressive. Over the past five years, the stock has delivered a cumulative return of 142.79%, significantly outperforming the Sensex’s 65.05% return over the same period. Even over three years, ONGC’s 58.26% gain surpasses the Sensex’s 35.56% rise.

However, the one-year return paints a different picture, with ONGC down 10.78% while the Sensex gained 6.63%. This divergence highlights the stock’s recent struggles amid broader market strength, underscoring the importance of technical signals in assessing near-term risk.

Year-to-date, ONGC’s return is marginally negative at -0.10%, compared to the Sensex’s -3.57%, indicating relative resilience but also a lack of clear upward momentum.

Mojo Grade Downgrade and Market Capitalisation Insights

Reflecting the technical deterioration, MarketsMOJO downgraded ONGC’s Mojo Grade from Buy to Hold on 19 Jan 2026. The current Mojo Score stands at 58.0, indicating a moderate outlook with caution advised. The downgrade signals that while the stock retains some fundamental strength, the technical indicators suggest limited upside in the near term.

ONGC’s market capitalisation grade remains at 1, denoting its status as a large-cap heavyweight within the oil sector. This classification underscores the stock’s importance in portfolios but also highlights that its price movements can be influenced by broader sectoral and macroeconomic factors.

Sectoral and Industry Context

Within the oil industry, ONGC’s technical signals are consistent with sector-wide pressures, as global energy markets face volatility due to fluctuating crude prices and geopolitical uncertainties. The bearish technical trend aligns with cautious investor sentiment in the oil sector, which has seen mixed performance amid shifting demand forecasts and regulatory developments.

Investors should weigh ONGC’s solid long-term returns and large-cap stature against the current technical weakness, which may signal a period of consolidation or correction before any sustained recovery.

Investor Takeaway and Outlook

For investors, the current technical signals advise prudence. The bearish MACD, moving averages, and KST indicators suggest that ONGC may face further downside pressure in the short to medium term. The neutral RSI indicates that the stock is not yet oversold, implying that the decline could continue before a technical rebound emerges.

Long-term holders may find comfort in ONGC’s strong multi-year returns and large-cap status, but should monitor technical developments closely. A sustained break below key support levels near ₹239 could trigger further selling, while a recovery above short-term moving averages would be needed to signal a reversal.

Overall, ONGC’s downgrade to Hold reflects a balanced view: the company’s fundamentals remain intact, but technical momentum has shifted unfavourably, warranting caution and close observation of price action and volume trends.

Summary of Technical Ratings

Weekly and monthly technical indicators collectively point to a bearish stance:

• MACD: Weekly Bearish, Monthly Mildly Bearish


• RSI: No clear signal on both weekly and monthly


• Bollinger Bands: Bearish on weekly and monthly


• Moving Averages: Daily Bearish


• KST: Bearish on weekly and monthly


• Dow Theory: No trend weekly, Mildly Bearish monthly


• OBV: No trend weekly, Mildly Bearish monthly

These signals collectively justify the cautious Mojo Grade Hold rating and suggest that investors should await clearer signs of trend reversal before increasing exposure.

Conclusion

Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Ltd. is currently navigating a challenging technical environment, with momentum indicators signalling a shift towards bearishness. While the company’s long-term performance remains robust, the near-term outlook is clouded by weakening technical trends. Investors should balance ONGC’s fundamental strengths against these signals and consider alternative opportunities within the sector or broader market until a clearer recovery pattern emerges.

Unlock special upgrade rates for a limited period. Start Saving Now →