Recent Price Movement and Market Context
ONGC’s current market price stands at ₹254.30, down sharply by 5.45% from the previous close of ₹268.95. The stock’s intraday range on 2 Feb 2026 spanned from ₹253.05 to ₹275.80, reflecting heightened volatility. Despite this recent dip, the stock remains above its 52-week low of ₹205.00 but below the 52-week high of ₹277.80, indicating a consolidation phase within a broad trading band.
Comparatively, ONGC has outperformed the Sensex over shorter time frames, with a 1-week return of 3.56% against the Sensex’s -1.00%, and a 1-month gain of 8.30% versus the Sensex’s -4.67%. Year-to-date, ONGC has delivered a 5.85% return while the benchmark index declined by 5.28%. However, over the past year, ONGC slightly underperformed with a -0.93% return compared to the Sensex’s 5.16% rise. Longer-term returns remain robust, with 3-year and 5-year gains of 75.50% and 187.67% respectively, significantly outpacing the Sensex’s 35.67% and 74.40%.
Technical Trend Shift: From Sideways to Mildly Bearish
The technical trend for ONGC has shifted from a neutral sideways pattern to a mildly bearish outlook. This transition is supported by several key indicators. The daily moving averages have turned mildly bearish, signalling that short-term price momentum is weakening. The stock’s 50-day and 200-day moving averages are converging, with the shorter-term average trending downward, which often precedes further price softness.
Meanwhile, the weekly MACD remains bullish, suggesting some underlying positive momentum on a medium-term basis. However, the monthly MACD has turned mildly bearish, indicating that longer-term momentum is waning. This divergence between weekly and monthly MACD readings highlights a transitional phase where short-term strength is being offset by longer-term caution.
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RSI and Momentum Oscillators Signal Caution
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the weekly chart has turned bearish, currently indicating a reading below the neutral 50 level. This suggests that selling pressure is increasing and the stock may be entering an oversold territory if the trend continues. Conversely, the monthly RSI remains neutral with no clear signal, reflecting indecision over the longer term.
The Know Sure Thing (KST) oscillator, which aggregates multiple momentum cycles, is mildly bearish on both weekly and monthly timeframes. This reinforces the view that momentum is decelerating across multiple horizons, adding to the cautious technical outlook.
Bollinger Bands and Volume Indicators
Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart show a mildly bullish stance, with the price hovering near the upper band during recent rallies. However, the monthly Bollinger Bands have turned bearish, indicating increased volatility and a potential for downward price pressure over the longer term.
Volume-based indicators such as On-Balance Volume (OBV) show no definitive trend on either weekly or monthly charts, suggesting that volume is not confirming price moves decisively. This lack of volume confirmation often precedes periods of consolidation or trend reversals.
Dow Theory and Market Sentiment
According to Dow Theory, both weekly and monthly charts show no clear trend, reflecting market indecision. This absence of a confirmed trend aligns with the mixed signals from other technical indicators, underscoring the transitional phase ONGC is currently navigating.
Mojo Score and Analyst Ratings
MarketsMOJO assigns ONGC a Mojo Score of 58.0, categorising it as a Hold. This represents a downgrade from a previous Buy rating on 19 Jan 2026, reflecting the recent deterioration in technical momentum and cautious fundamental outlook. The Market Cap Grade remains at 1, indicating a large-cap status but with limited growth momentum in the near term.
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Investor Takeaway and Outlook
Investors should approach ONGC with measured caution given the recent shift in technical momentum. The mildly bearish signals from daily moving averages, monthly MACD, and weekly RSI suggest that the stock may face near-term headwinds. However, the weekly MACD’s bullishness and the stock’s relative outperformance against the Sensex over recent weeks provide some counterbalance, indicating potential for selective buying on dips.
Long-term investors may find comfort in ONGC’s strong multi-year returns and large-cap stability, but short-term traders should monitor key technical levels closely. A sustained break below the ₹250 mark could confirm further downside, while a rebound above the recent high of ₹275.80 may signal a resumption of upward momentum.
Overall, the downgrade to a Hold rating by MarketsMOJO reflects the nuanced technical picture and the need for investors to weigh momentum signals carefully against broader market conditions and sector fundamentals.
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