One 97 Communications Ltd Sees Sharp Open Interest Surge Amidst Market Pressure

Open Interest and Volume Dynamics

On 30 Jan 2026, One 97 Communications Ltd (symbol: PAYTM) recorded an open interest (OI) of 45,285 contracts in its derivatives, marking an 11.96% increase from the previous OI of 40,447. This rise of 4,838 contracts is significant, especially given the backdrop of a 2.51% decline in the stock price on the same day. The volume traded stood at 24,992 contracts, indicating robust participation in the futures and options market.

The futures segment alone accounted for a value of approximately ₹32,959 lakhs, while the options segment's notional value was substantially higher at ₹18,508 crores. The combined derivatives turnover reached ₹37,264 lakhs, underscoring the intense trading interest in PAYTM derivatives.

Price Performance and Market Context

Despite the surge in derivatives activity, the underlying stock price has underperformed its sector and benchmark indices. PAYTM's share price closed at ₹1,139, having touched an intraday low of ₹1,115.6, a 4.49% drop. Over the past two trading sessions, the stock has declined by 3.79%, underperforming the Financial Technology sector's 1-day return of -0.74% and the Sensex's -0.48%.

Technical indicators reveal that the stock is trading above its 200-day moving average but remains below its 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day moving averages. This mixed technical picture suggests short-term weakness amid longer-term support. Additionally, delivery volumes have fallen sharply by 28.73% compared to the 5-day average, signalling waning investor participation in the cash segment despite heightened derivatives activity.

Interpreting the Open Interest Surge

The increase in open interest amid falling prices often points to fresh short positions being established or existing shorts being added to, reflecting bearish sentiment. However, the substantial volume and value in options trading complicate this narrative, as options allow for more nuanced strategies including hedging and volatility plays.

Given the weighted average price of traded contracts was closer to the day's low, it suggests that market participants are positioning for further downside or increased volatility. The divergence between falling spot prices and rising open interest indicates that traders are actively adjusting their market exposure, possibly anticipating a continuation of the recent downtrend or preparing for a volatility spike around upcoming events.

Market Positioning and Sentiment Shifts

One 97 Communications Ltd currently holds a Mojo Score of 68.0 with a Mojo Grade of Hold, downgraded from Buy on 24 Dec 2025. This reflects a cautious stance by analysts amid recent volatility and mixed technical signals. The company’s market capitalisation stands at ₹74,765 crores, placing it in the mid-cap category within the Financial Technology sector.

The recent open interest surge may also be indicative of institutional players repositioning ahead of earnings announcements or regulatory developments impacting the fintech space. The derivatives market often acts as a leading indicator of sentiment shifts, and the current data suggests a tilt towards defensive or hedging strategies rather than outright bullish bets.

Liquidity remains adequate, with the stock’s traded value supporting a trade size of approximately ₹16.86 crores based on 2% of the 5-day average traded value. This ensures that market participants can execute sizeable trades without significant price impact, facilitating active derivatives positioning.

Potential Directional Bets and Strategic Implications

Given the combination of rising open interest, falling spot prices, and heavy options activity, market participants appear to be positioning for either continued downside or increased volatility in PAYTM shares. Traders may be employing strategies such as protective puts, short futures, or complex option spreads to capitalise on or hedge against anticipated price swings.

Investors should note that while the derivatives market signals caution, the underlying fundamentals and longer-term technical support remain intact. The stock’s position above the 200-day moving average suggests that any correction could be temporary, offering potential entry points for long-term investors.

However, the recent downgrade in Mojo Grade and the underperformance relative to sector peers warrant a measured approach. Monitoring open interest trends alongside volume and price action in the coming sessions will be crucial to gauge whether the current positioning reflects a transient market reaction or a more sustained shift in sentiment.

Outlook and Investor Takeaways

In summary, the surge in open interest for One 97 Communications Ltd’s derivatives amid a declining stock price highlights a complex market environment where investors are actively recalibrating their positions. The increased activity in options and futures suggests a heightened focus on risk management and directional bets, reflecting uncertainty in the fintech sector’s near-term trajectory.

Investors should weigh the current technical weakness against the company’s solid fundamentals and mid-cap status. The downgrade to a Hold rating signals prudence, but the stock’s liquidity and long-term support levels provide a cushion against abrupt declines.

Careful monitoring of open interest trends, volume patterns, and price movements will be essential for discerning whether the recent derivatives activity presages a sustained downtrend or a potential rebound opportunity. As always, diversification and risk management remain paramount in navigating the evolving market landscape.

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