ONGC Sees Robust Call Option Activity as Investors Eye Upside Ahead of March Expiry

Robust Call Option Volumes Highlight Investor Optimism

Data from the derivatives market reveals that ONGC’s call options have been the most actively traded contracts in the oil sector this week. The strike prices of ₹280, ₹290, and ₹300 for the expiry on 30 March 2026 have attracted significant interest, with total contracts traded amounting to 15,413 across these strikes. The ₹300 strike alone accounted for 6,347 contracts, reflecting a strong bet on the stock surpassing this level within the next month.

Turnover figures further underscore this enthusiasm, with the ₹280 strike generating ₹1,100.45 lakhs, ₹290 strike ₹926.75 lakhs, and ₹300 strike ₹726.89 lakhs in premium value. Open interest remains elevated, particularly at the ₹300 strike with 3,322 contracts outstanding, indicating sustained bullish positioning rather than short-term speculative spikes.

Price Action Supports Positive Outlook

ONGC’s underlying share price currently stands at ₹280.10, just shy of the ₹280 strike price, and has recently touched a new 52-week high of ₹293. This performance outpaces the oil sector’s 1-day return of -1.63% and the broader Sensex’s decline of -0.84%, with ONGC itself gaining 0.41% on the day. The stock’s ability to trade above its 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages signals a strong technical foundation supporting further gains.

Investor participation has also risen markedly, with delivery volumes on 27 February reaching 1.08 crore shares, a 26.09% increase over the 5-day average. This heightened engagement suggests confidence in the stock’s near-term prospects, bolstered by a healthy dividend yield of 4.92% at current prices.

Mojo Score and Market Cap Context

ONGC currently holds a Mojo Score of 68.0 with a Mojo Grade of Hold, having been downgraded from Buy on 23 February 2026. This reflects a cautious stance despite the recent bullish option activity, likely due to valuation considerations and sector headwinds. The company’s market capitalisation stands at a substantial ₹3,53,317.14 crores, categorising it as a large-cap stock with a Market Cap Grade of 1, indicating high liquidity and institutional interest.

While the downgrade signals some reservations, the stock’s technical strength and option market positioning suggest that investors are anticipating a potential rebound or sustained rally in the coming weeks. The divergence between fundamental caution and market optimism is a key dynamic to monitor.

Expiry Patterns and Strike Price Concentration

The concentration of call option activity at the ₹280 to ₹300 strikes for the 30 March expiry is telling. The ₹280 strike, just at-the-money, has seen 3,839 contracts traded with an open interest of 2,328, while the ₹290 strike, slightly out-of-the-money, has 5,227 contracts traded and 2,321 open interest. The ₹300 strike, further out-of-the-money, leads in volume and open interest, indicating that traders are betting on a meaningful price appreciation beyond current levels.

This pattern suggests a bullish skew in option positioning, with investors willing to pay premiums for the possibility of ONGC breaking above ₹300 within the next four weeks. Such activity often precedes strong directional moves, especially when supported by favourable technical and fundamental factors.

Sector and Market Comparison

Compared to the broader oil sector, which has been under pressure with a 1-day return of -1.63%, ONGC’s outperformance is notable. The stock’s resilience amid sector weakness may be attributed to company-specific factors such as steady dividend yield, improving operational metrics, or expectations of favourable government policies impacting the oil and gas industry.

Moreover, ONGC’s liquidity profile, with the ability to handle trade sizes of up to ₹8.12 crores based on 2% of the 5-day average traded value, makes it an attractive option for institutional investors seeking exposure to the energy sector.

Investor Takeaway: Balancing Bullish Sentiment with Caution

While the surge in call option volumes and open interest at higher strike prices signals bullish expectations for ONGC, investors should weigh these signals against the recent downgrade in Mojo Grade and the broader oil sector volatility. The stock’s strong technical positioning and dividend yield provide a solid foundation, but macroeconomic factors such as crude oil price fluctuations, regulatory changes, and global energy demand remain key risks.

For traders, the current option market activity offers opportunities to capitalise on potential upside through call buying or bullish spreads, especially targeting the ₹290 to ₹300 strike range. Long-term investors may prefer to monitor fundamental developments and sector trends before increasing exposure, given the Hold rating and recent grade change.

Overall, ONGC’s option market dynamics reflect a market cautiously optimistic about the company’s near-term prospects, with a clear preference for upside participation ahead of the March expiry.

Summary of Key Metrics:

• Underlying Price: ₹280.10
• 52-Week High: ₹293 (hit on 2 Mar 2026)
• Mojo Score: 68.0 (Hold, downgraded from Buy on 23 Feb 2026)
• Market Cap: ₹3,53,317.14 crores (Large Cap)
• Dividend Yield: 4.92%
• Open Interest at ₹300 Strike: 3,322 contracts
• Total Call Contracts Traded (30 Mar Expiry): 15,413
• Turnover in Call Options: Over ₹2,750 lakhs combined for top three strikes

Investors and traders should continue to monitor option open interest changes and price action closely as the expiry date approaches, as these will provide further clues on market expectations and potential price trajectories for ONGC.

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