ONGC Technical Momentum Shifts Signal Bullish Outlook Amid Strong Returns

Technical Momentum and Indicator Analysis

ONGC’s current price stands at ₹276.25, having closed at ₹274.60 previously, marking a modest intraday gain of 0.60%. The stock touched a high of ₹280.35 today, which also represents its 52-week peak, while the 52-week low remains at ₹205.00. This price action reflects a strong recovery and sustained upward momentum over the past year.

From a technical perspective, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator presents a bullish outlook on both weekly and monthly charts, signalling sustained upward momentum. The MACD’s positive crossover and divergence from the signal line suggest that buying pressure is intensifying, which often precedes further price appreciation.

Complementing this, the daily moving averages have turned bullish, indicating that short-term price trends are aligning with longer-term upward trajectories. The stock’s price currently trades above its key moving averages, reinforcing the strength of the ongoing rally.

Bollinger Bands on weekly and monthly timeframes also support this bullish narrative, with the price consistently testing or exceeding the upper band. This behaviour typically indicates strong momentum and potential continuation of the uptrend, although it can also signal overbought conditions in the short term.

However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) presents a nuanced picture. While the weekly RSI is bearish, suggesting some short-term consolidation or profit-taking, the monthly RSI remains neutral with no clear signal. This divergence between weekly and monthly RSI readings implies that while short-term volatility may persist, the medium-term trend remains intact.

The Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator is bullish on the weekly chart but mildly bearish on the monthly, further underscoring the mixed signals in the intermediate term. Meanwhile, the On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator is bullish across both weekly and monthly periods, confirming that volume trends support the price advances and that accumulation is underway.

Dow Theory assessments align with these findings, showing mildly bullish trends on both weekly and monthly scales, which suggests that the broader market sentiment towards ONGC remains positive but cautious.

Comparative Performance and Market Context

ONGC’s recent price momentum is further validated by its impressive returns relative to the Sensex benchmark. Over the past week, ONGC has surged 2.66%, significantly outperforming the Sensex’s modest 0.43% gain. The one-month return is even more striking, with ONGC appreciating 17.20% while the Sensex declined by 0.24%.

Year-to-date (YTD), ONGC has delivered a 14.98% return compared to the Sensex’s negative 1.81%, highlighting the stock’s resilience amid broader market headwinds. Over the last year, ONGC’s 16.34% gain comfortably exceeds the Sensex’s 9.85% rise, reinforcing its status as a strong sectoral outperformer.

Longer-term performance metrics are equally compelling. ONGC has generated an 88.37% return over three years, outpacing the Sensex’s 37.89% growth. Over five years, the stock’s return of 184.79% dwarfs the Sensex’s 62.34%, demonstrating sustained value creation for shareholders. Even over a decade, ONGC’s 114.09% gain, while trailing the Sensex’s 264.02%, reflects solid long-term appreciation in a capital-intensive industry.

These returns are supported by ONGC’s strong fundamentals and its strategic positioning within the oil sector, which has benefited from rising crude prices and improving demand dynamics globally.

Mojo Score Upgrade and Market Implications

Reflecting these positive developments, ONGC’s MarketsMOJO score has improved to 78.0, earning a Buy grade as of 5 February 2026, upgraded from a previous Hold rating. This upgrade signals increased confidence in the stock’s technical and fundamental outlook, supported by robust price momentum and improving trend indicators.

The company’s market capitalisation grade remains at 1, indicating its status as a large-cap heavyweight within the oil sector. This stature provides liquidity and stability, making ONGC an attractive proposition for institutional and retail investors alike.

Investors should note that while the technical indicators predominantly favour a bullish stance, some caution is warranted due to mixed signals from the RSI and KST on intermediate timeframes. These suggest potential short-term volatility or consolidation phases before the next leg of the uptrend.

Outlook and Investor Considerations

Given the current technical landscape, ONGC appears poised for further gains, supported by bullish MACD signals, strong moving averages, and positive volume trends. The stock’s ability to sustain above its 52-week high of ₹280.35 will be a critical factor in confirming the continuation of the uptrend.

Investors should monitor the weekly RSI for signs of short-term exhaustion, as well as the KST indicator’s monthly readings for any deterioration in momentum. A sustained breach below key moving averages or a reversal in volume patterns could signal a pause or correction.

Fundamentally, ONGC’s position as a leading oil producer, combined with favourable sectoral tailwinds, underpins its long-term growth prospects. The recent upgrade in technical ratings and the strong Mojo Score reinforce the stock’s appeal as a Buy for investors seeking exposure to the oil sector with a blend of growth and stability.

In summary, ONGC’s technical parameter changes reflect a meaningful shift in price momentum, supported by multiple bullish indicators and strong relative performance against the Sensex. While some caution is warranted in the short term, the overall trend favours continued appreciation, making ONGC a compelling candidate for inclusion in diversified portfolios focused on energy and natural resources.

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