ONGC Technical Momentum Shifts to Mildly Bullish Amid Mixed Indicator Signals

Price Movement and Market Context

ONGC closed at ₹243.85 on 14 Jan 2026, up from the previous close of ₹235.70. The intraday range was relatively tight, with a low of ₹235.95 and a high of ₹244.15, indicating controlled buying pressure. The stock remains below its 52-week high of ₹270.55 but comfortably above the 52-week low of ₹205.00, suggesting a recovery phase within a broader uptrend.

Comparatively, ONGC has outperformed the Sensex over shorter time frames. Over the past week, the stock returned 0.81% while the Sensex declined by 1.69%. Similarly, over the last month, ONGC gained 2.44% against the Sensex’s 1.92% loss. Year-to-date, ONGC is up 1.50%, contrasting with the Sensex’s 1.87% decline. However, over the one-year horizon, ONGC has lagged with a -4.62% return compared to the Sensex’s 9.56% gain, reflecting some volatility and sector-specific challenges.

Technical Indicators: Mixed Signals but Positive Momentum

The technical landscape for ONGC is nuanced. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains bearish on the weekly and mildly bearish on the monthly charts, signalling that momentum has not fully shifted to the upside. However, the daily moving averages have turned bullish, suggesting short-term strength and potential for further gains if this trend sustains.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on both weekly and monthly timeframes currently shows no clear signal, hovering in neutral territory. This indicates that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold, providing room for directional movement without immediate risk of reversal due to extreme conditions.

Bollinger Bands present a bullish signal on the weekly chart, with price action approaching the upper band, which often indicates upward momentum. Conversely, the monthly Bollinger Bands remain mildly bearish, reflecting some caution among longer-term investors.

Additional Technical Measures

The Know Sure Thing (KST) oscillator is bearish on both weekly and monthly charts, suggesting that momentum indicators still favour the downside in the medium term. Dow Theory analysis shows no clear trend on the weekly scale and a mildly bearish stance monthly, reinforcing the mixed technical picture.

On-Balance Volume (OBV) is mildly bearish weekly and neutral monthly, indicating that volume trends have not decisively supported the recent price gains, which could imply cautious accumulation rather than strong buying conviction.

Mojo Score Upgrade Reflects Improved Technical Outlook

MarketsMOJO has upgraded ONGC’s Mojo Grade from Hold to Buy as of 13 Jan 2026, reflecting the improved technical momentum and positive price action. The company’s Mojo Score stands at 74.0, signalling a favourable outlook relative to peers in the oil sector. Despite a Market Cap Grade of 1, indicating a large-cap status with stable market capitalisation, the upgrade suggests that technical factors are increasingly supporting a bullish stance.

This upgrade is significant given the stock’s recent performance and the broader oil industry context, where commodity price fluctuations and geopolitical factors continue to influence investor sentiment.

Long-Term Performance and Sector Comparison

Over the longer term, ONGC has delivered robust returns, with a 3-year gain of 65.94% compared to the Sensex’s 38.78%, and a 5-year return of 131.80% versus the Sensex’s 68.97%. However, the 10-year return of 64.17% trails the Sensex’s 236.47%, reflecting periods of sectoral underperformance and cyclical challenges in the oil industry.

These figures highlight ONGC’s capacity for strong medium-term growth, albeit with volatility and sensitivity to oil price cycles. Investors should weigh these factors alongside the current technical signals when considering exposure to the stock.

Outlook and Investor Considerations

While the daily moving averages and weekly Bollinger Bands suggest a positive momentum shift, the bearish MACD and KST indicators on longer timeframes counsel caution. The neutral RSI and mixed volume trends imply that the stock is in a consolidation phase, with potential for further upside if buying interest strengthens.

Investors should monitor key technical levels, including the 52-week high of ₹270.55 as a resistance point and the recent support near ₹235.00. A sustained break above the moving averages and confirmation from MACD turning bullish would reinforce the current upgrade and signal a more definitive trend reversal.

Conclusion

Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Ltd. is currently navigating a complex technical environment with signs of renewed momentum tempered by lingering bearish indicators on longer timeframes. The recent upgrade to a Buy rating by MarketsMOJO and the positive daily moving averages suggest that the stock is poised for potential gains in the near term.

However, investors should remain vigilant of mixed signals from MACD, KST, and volume trends, which indicate that the broader trend confirmation is still pending. Given ONGC’s strong medium-term performance relative to the Sensex and its strategic position in the oil sector, the stock remains an attractive candidate for investors seeking exposure to energy with a cautiously optimistic technical backdrop.

Monitoring key technical levels and sector developments will be crucial in assessing the sustainability of this momentum shift.

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