The Death Cross is widely regarded by market analysts as a warning sign that the stock’s short-term price action is losing strength relative to its longer-term trend. For PNB Gilts, this event was triggered on 18 Nov 2025, following a period of sustained price declines. The stock’s daily moving averages now reflect a bearish alignment, reinforcing concerns about the stock’s near-term outlook.
Examining PNB Gilts’ recent price performance reveals a challenging environment. Over the past year, the stock has recorded a decline of 22.61%, contrasting sharply with the Sensex’s gain of 9.48% during the same period. This underperformance extends across multiple time frames: a 3-month loss of 17.45% versus a Sensex gain of 4.18%, and a year-to-date decline of 20.15% compared to the Sensex’s 8.36% rise. Even the one-month and one-week performances show negative returns for PNB Gilts, while the benchmark index posted positive gains.
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From a valuation perspective, PNB Gilts trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 8.78, which is considerably lower than the industry average P/E of 23.62 for Non Banking Financial Companies. This valuation gap may reflect market concerns about the company’s earnings prospects amid the current downtrend. The company’s market capitalisation stands at ₹1,580 crores, categorising it as a small-cap stock within the NBFC sector.
Technical indicators further corroborate the bearish sentiment. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator shows a bearish signal on the weekly chart and a mildly bearish stance on the monthly chart. Bollinger Bands also indicate bearish pressure on both weekly and monthly time frames. The KST (Know Sure Thing) indicator aligns with this view, showing bearish signals weekly and monthly. Meanwhile, the Dow Theory analysis suggests a mildly bearish trend in both weekly and monthly periods. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicators do not currently provide clear signals, indicating a lack of strong momentum or volume trends to counter the prevailing weakness.
Despite the recent negative momentum, PNB Gilts has demonstrated some resilience over longer periods. The stock’s three-year performance shows a gain of 40.83%, slightly ahead of the Sensex’s 37.31% return. Over five years, PNB Gilts has delivered a 109.63% return, surpassing the Sensex’s 91.65%. However, the ten-year performance of 216.93% trails the Sensex’s 232.28%, suggesting that while the company has generated substantial long-term value, recent trends have shifted unfavourably.
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The recent Death Cross event for PNB Gilts is a technical development that investors and market participants should monitor closely. It reflects a shift in the stock’s momentum that could presage further declines or a prolonged period of weakness. While the stock’s valuation metrics and longer-term returns provide some context, the prevailing technical indicators and price action suggest caution.
Investors analysing PNB Gilts should consider the broader market environment, sector-specific challenges, and the company’s financial fundamentals alongside technical signals. The NBFC sector has faced headwinds in recent times, and PNB Gilts’ relative underperformance compared to the Sensex highlights the need for careful evaluation.
In summary, the formation of the Death Cross on 18 Nov 2025 marks a notable point in PNB Gilts’ price trajectory. This event, combined with bearish technical indicators and subdued recent performance, signals potential trend deterioration and long-term weakness. Market participants may wish to factor these developments into their investment decisions and risk assessments.
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