Punjab National Bank Technical Momentum Shifts to Bullish Amid Strong Returns

Technical Trend Evolution and Moving Averages

PNB’s technical trend has recently upgraded from mildly bullish to bullish, reflecting improved investor sentiment and price action. The daily moving averages have turned decisively bullish, with the stock price currently trading at ₹122.40, up 1.58% from the previous close of ₹120.50. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages have converged favourably, providing a solid support base and signalling potential for further upside. This alignment of moving averages often precedes sustained upward momentum, reinforcing the bullish outlook.

MACD and Momentum Oscillators

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator presents a nuanced picture. On the weekly timeframe, MACD remains mildly bearish, indicating some short-term caution among traders. However, the monthly MACD has turned bullish, signalling that the longer-term momentum is gaining strength. This divergence between weekly and monthly MACD suggests that while short-term volatility may persist, the broader trend favours accumulation and price appreciation.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on both weekly and monthly charts currently shows no definitive signal, hovering in neutral territory. This implies that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold, leaving room for further price movement without immediate risk of a reversal due to extreme RSI levels.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility Insights

Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart have turned bullish, with the stock price moving towards the upper band, indicating increased buying pressure and volatility expansion. The monthly Bollinger Bands are mildly bullish, suggesting a gradual strengthening of the price range. This pattern often precedes breakouts, especially when combined with other bullish indicators.

Additional Technical Indicators: KST, Dow Theory, and OBV

The Know Sure Thing (KST) oscillator is bullish on the weekly chart but mildly bearish on the monthly, echoing the mixed signals seen in MACD. Dow Theory assessments align with a mildly bullish stance on both weekly and monthly timeframes, reinforcing the notion of a positive but cautious market environment.

On-Balance Volume (OBV) readings are bullish across weekly and monthly charts, indicating that volume trends support the price advances. This volume confirmation is critical as it suggests genuine buying interest rather than speculative spikes.

Price Performance Relative to Sensex

PNB’s price returns have outperformed the Sensex across multiple time horizons. Year-to-date, the stock has delivered a robust 19.12% return compared to the Sensex’s 8.36%. Over one year, PNB’s return stands at 20.29%, significantly higher than the Sensex’s 8.21%. Even over longer periods, such as three and five years, PNB has outpaced the benchmark with returns of 116.83% and 273.74% respectively, compared to Sensex returns of 39.17% and 77.34%. This consistent outperformance underscores the stock’s resilience and growth potential within the public sector banking space.

Mojo Score Upgrade and Market Capitalisation Insights

MarketsMOJO has upgraded Punjab National Bank’s Mojo Grade from Sell to Hold as of 11 September 2025, reflecting the improved technical and fundamental outlook. The current Mojo Score stands at 65.0, indicating moderate confidence in the stock’s near-term prospects. Despite this upgrade, the Market Cap Grade remains at 1, signalling that PNB is still considered a relatively smaller-cap entity within the public sector banking universe. This combination suggests that while the stock is gaining momentum, investors should remain mindful of liquidity and market depth considerations.

Price Range and Intraday Volatility

On 31 December 2025, PNB’s price fluctuated between ₹119.50 and ₹122.75, closing near the day’s high at ₹122.40. This intraday strength, coupled with a 1.58% gain, highlights renewed buying interest. The stock is currently trading close to its 52-week high of ₹127.80, a level that may act as resistance in the short term. The 52-week low stands at ₹85.50, underscoring the significant recovery and upward trajectory over the past year.

Sectoral Context and Comparative Analysis

Within the public sector banking industry, PNB’s technical indicators and price momentum stand out positively. The sector has faced headwinds due to macroeconomic uncertainties and regulatory changes, yet PNB’s bullish technical signals suggest it is better positioned than some peers to capitalise on improving credit demand and asset quality trends. The stock’s outperformance relative to the Sensex further emphasises its potential as a key player in the sector’s recovery narrative.

Investor Takeaway and Outlook

Punjab National Bank’s recent technical parameter changes indicate a strengthening price momentum that aligns with a bullish outlook. The convergence of daily moving averages, bullish monthly MACD, and supportive volume trends via OBV provide a compelling case for investors to consider the stock as it approaches key resistance levels. However, the mixed signals from weekly MACD and KST oscillators counsel some caution in the short term, suggesting that volatility may persist before a sustained breakout.

Given the stock’s strong relative performance against the Sensex and its upgraded Mojo Grade, PNB appears well-positioned to benefit from improving sector fundamentals and broader market recovery. Investors should monitor the stock’s ability to surpass the ₹127.80 52-week high, which could trigger further momentum-driven gains.

Overall, Punjab National Bank’s technical landscape has improved significantly, shifting from a cautious stance to one that favours accumulation and potential upside. This transition, combined with solid volume support and positive longer-term momentum indicators, makes PNB a noteworthy candidate for investors seeking exposure to public sector banking with a technical edge.

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