Radico Khaitan Ltd. Technical Momentum Shifts Amid Mixed Indicator Signals

Price Movement and Market Context

On 20 Feb 2026, Radico Khaitan’s stock opened with a high of ₹2,808.40 and a low of ₹2,712.00, closing at ₹2,721.90, down from the previous close of ₹2,788.20. The stock remains well below its 52-week high of ₹3,695.00 but comfortably above its 52-week low of ₹1,846.10, indicating a wide trading range over the past year. This volatility is reflected in the stock’s recent returns, which have underperformed the benchmark Sensex over short-term periods. For instance, the stock declined by 3.81% over the past week compared to Sensex’s 1.41% fall, and by 4.07% over the last month against Sensex’s 0.90% drop. Year-to-date, Radico Khaitan has fallen 17.43%, significantly lagging the Sensex’s 3.19% decline.

However, the longer-term performance remains robust, with a one-year return of 34.78% compared to Sensex’s 8.64%, a three-year return of 142.26% versus 35.24%, and an impressive five-year gain of 390.65% against Sensex’s 62.11%. Over a decade, the stock has surged by 2,624.62%, dwarfing the Sensex’s 247.96% rise. This disparity highlights the stock’s strong growth potential despite recent short-term headwinds.

Technical Indicators: Divergent Signals Across Timeframes

Radico Khaitan’s technical trend has shifted from a sideways pattern to mildly bullish, signalling a tentative positive momentum. Yet, the detailed technical indicators reveal a nuanced scenario:

• MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The weekly MACD remains bearish, suggesting short-term selling pressure persists. Conversely, the monthly MACD is mildly bearish, indicating that while the longer-term momentum is weak, it is not decisively negative.
• RSI (Relative Strength Index): The weekly RSI shows no clear signal, hovering in a neutral zone that neither favours overbought nor oversold conditions. The monthly RSI, however, is bullish, implying that the stock has underlying strength over the longer term.
• Bollinger Bands: Weekly readings are bearish, reflecting recent price volatility and downward pressure. Monthly Bollinger Bands are mildly bullish, suggesting that the stock price is stabilising and may be poised for a gradual upward move.
• Moving Averages: Daily moving averages have turned mildly bullish, indicating that short-term price action is gaining positive traction, which could support a recovery if sustained.
• KST (Know Sure Thing): Both weekly and monthly KST indicators are bearish or mildly bearish, signalling caution as momentum remains subdued.
• Dow Theory: Weekly signals are mildly bullish, hinting at a potential trend reversal or strengthening in the near term, while monthly signals show no definitive trend, reflecting uncertainty over the longer horizon.
• OBV (On-Balance Volume): Weekly OBV is mildly bullish, indicating that volume trends support the recent price gains, but monthly OBV shows no clear trend, suggesting volume support is not yet firmly established.

These mixed signals imply that while short-term technicals are tentative and somewhat cautious, the longer-term indicators offer a cautiously optimistic outlook. Investors should weigh these factors carefully, recognising that the stock is in a transitional phase where momentum could either strengthen or falter depending on broader market conditions and sectoral developments.

Mojo Score and Rating Revision

MarketsMOJO’s latest assessment assigns Radico Khaitan a Mojo Score of 54.0, reflecting a Hold rating. This represents a downgrade from the previous Buy rating, effective from 16 Feb 2026. The downgrade is primarily driven by the recent technical deterioration and the stock’s underperformance relative to the Sensex in the short term. The Market Cap Grade remains low at 2, indicating limited market capitalisation strength compared to peers.

While the Hold rating suggests investors should exercise caution, it does not preclude potential upside if the stock’s technical momentum improves. The mildly bullish daily moving averages and monthly RSI provide some grounds for optimism, but the bearish weekly MACD and KST indicators counsel prudence.

Sector and Industry Context

Operating within the beverages sector, Radico Khaitan faces sector-specific challenges including fluctuating raw material costs, regulatory changes, and evolving consumer preferences. The sector itself has shown mixed technical signals, with some peers exhibiting stronger momentum. This context reinforces the need for investors to monitor Radico Khaitan’s technical developments closely and consider sectoral trends when making investment decisions.

Investment Implications and Outlook

Given the current technical landscape, Radico Khaitan appears to be at a crossroads. The shift from a sideways to a mildly bullish trend is encouraging, but the presence of bearish signals on key momentum indicators suggests that the stock may face resistance before a sustained uptrend can be confirmed. Investors should watch for confirmation from weekly MACD and KST indicators turning positive, alongside a strengthening OBV and sustained support from moving averages.

Moreover, the stock’s valuation relative to its historical price range and sector peers should be factored into any investment decision. With a current price of ₹2,721.90, the stock trades significantly below its 52-week high, offering a potential margin of safety if the technical momentum shifts favourably. However, the recent short-term underperformance relative to the Sensex and the downgrade to Hold rating suggest a cautious approach is warranted.

Conclusion

Radico Khaitan Ltd. is navigating a complex technical environment marked by a shift towards mild bullishness amid mixed momentum signals. The downgrade to a Hold rating by MarketsMOJO reflects the need for investors to adopt a measured stance, balancing the stock’s strong long-term fundamentals against recent short-term technical weaknesses. Monitoring key indicators such as MACD, RSI, moving averages, and volume trends will be crucial in assessing whether the stock can regain upward momentum and outperform its sector and benchmark indices in the coming months.

For investors with a medium to long-term horizon, Radico Khaitan’s historical outperformance and current valuation levels may offer an attractive entry point, provided technical signals confirm a sustained recovery. Conversely, short-term traders should remain vigilant for signs of further weakness or consolidation before committing fresh capital.

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