Rajesh Exports Ltd. Faces Technical Momentum Shift Amid Bearish Signals

Price Movement and Market Context

On 1 January 2026, Rajesh Exports closed at ₹184.00, down 3.94% from the previous close of ₹191.55. The intraday range saw a high of ₹194.00 and a low of ₹182.05, reflecting heightened volatility. The stock remains significantly below its 52-week high of ₹239.00, while comfortably above its 52-week low of ₹151.00. This price action underscores a weakening momentum after a period of relative strength.

Comparatively, the broader Sensex has shown resilience, with a year-to-date return of 9.06%, while Rajesh Exports has declined by 20.38% over the same period. Over longer horizons, the stock’s performance has been disappointing, with a 5-year return of -62.49% against Sensex’s robust 78.47% gain, highlighting structural challenges within the company or sector.

Technical Trend Shift: From Mildly Bullish to Mildly Bearish

The technical trend for Rajesh Exports has shifted from mildly bullish to mildly bearish, signalling a potential change in investor sentiment. This shift is corroborated by several key indicators:

• MACD: The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains bullish on the weekly chart and mildly bullish on the monthly chart, indicating some underlying positive momentum in the medium term. However, the lack of a strong bullish crossover and the recent price decline suggest weakening momentum.


• RSI: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows no clear signal on both weekly and monthly timeframes, hovering in a neutral zone. This absence of momentum extremes implies indecision among traders and a lack of strong directional conviction.


• Bollinger Bands: Both weekly and monthly Bollinger Bands are bearish, reflecting increased volatility and downward pressure on price. The stock price has been testing the lower bands, which often signals oversold conditions but also persistent selling pressure.


• Moving Averages: Daily moving averages have turned bearish, with the stock trading below key averages such as the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. This is a classic technical warning sign that the short-term trend is weakening.

Additional Technical Indicators

Other momentum indicators present a mixed picture:

• KST (Know Sure Thing): The weekly KST remains bullish, while the monthly KST is mildly bullish, suggesting some underlying strength in momentum over longer periods despite recent weakness.


• Dow Theory: Both weekly and monthly Dow Theory assessments remain mildly bullish, indicating that the primary trend may still hold some positive bias, though this is increasingly tenuous.


• On-Balance Volume (OBV): The weekly OBV shows no clear trend, while the monthly OBV is bullish, implying that volume flows have been supportive over the longer term but lack conviction in the short term.

Fundamental and Market Capitalisation Context

Rajesh Exports holds a Market Cap Grade of 3, reflecting a mid-tier market capitalisation within its sector. The company’s Mojo Score has deteriorated to 47.0, resulting in a downgrade from a previous Hold rating to a Sell as of 31 December 2025. This downgrade reflects the combined impact of technical weakness and fundamental concerns, signalling caution for investors.

Price Momentum and Investor Sentiment

The sharp 17.62% decline over the past week starkly contrasts with the Sensex’s marginal 0.22% drop, highlighting sector-specific or company-specific pressures. The one-month return of -1.92% versus Sensex’s -0.49% further emphasises the stock’s underperformance. Year-to-date and one-year returns of -20.38% against Sensex’s positive 9.06% reinforce the negative momentum.

Longer-term returns paint a more concerning picture. Over three, five, and ten years, Rajesh Exports has delivered returns of -74.79%, -62.49%, and -73.02% respectively, while the Sensex has surged by 40.07%, 78.47%, and 226.30%. This stark divergence suggests structural challenges in the company’s growth trajectory or sector dynamics that have weighed heavily on investor confidence.

Technical Outlook and Moving Averages

The daily moving averages have decisively turned bearish, with the stock price trading below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. This “death cross” scenario often signals a sustained downtrend and can trigger further selling pressure. The bearish Bollinger Bands on weekly and monthly charts reinforce this outlook, indicating that volatility is skewed to the downside.

However, the mildly bullish MACD and KST on monthly charts suggest that some medium-term momentum remains intact, potentially offering a floor for the stock if broader market conditions improve. The lack of RSI extremes indicates that the stock is not yet oversold, leaving room for further downside before a technical rebound might be expected.

Sector and Industry Considerations

Rajesh Exports operates within the Gems, Jewellery and Watches sector, which has faced headwinds from fluctuating gold prices, changing consumer demand, and global economic uncertainties. These factors have contributed to the stock’s underperformance relative to the broader market. Investors should weigh these sectoral risks alongside the technical signals when considering exposure to Rajesh Exports.

Investor Takeaway

Rajesh Exports Ltd.’s recent technical deterioration, combined with its underwhelming price performance relative to the Sensex, signals caution for investors. The downgrade from Hold to Sell by MarketsMOJO, reflected in the Mojo Grade of 47.0, underscores the need for a reassessment of risk exposure in this stock.

While some medium-term indicators such as MACD and KST remain mildly bullish, the prevailing bearish signals from moving averages and Bollinger Bands suggest that the stock may face continued downward pressure in the near term. Investors should monitor key support levels near ₹182 and the 52-week low of ₹151 for potential technical rebounds, but should remain vigilant given the sectoral headwinds and weak long-term returns.

In summary, Rajesh Exports currently exhibits a fragile technical setup with a momentum shift towards bearishness. Investors seeking exposure to the Gems, Jewellery and Watches sector may want to consider alternative opportunities with stronger technical and fundamental profiles.

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