Refex Industries Ltd Sees Mixed Technical Signals Amid Price Momentum Shift

Price Momentum and Recent Market Performance

On 29 Jan 2026, Refex Industries Ltd closed at ₹231.10, marking a significant day change of +5.98% from the previous close of ₹218.05. The intraday range saw a low of ₹219.00 and a high of ₹235.80, indicating heightened volatility. However, the stock remains substantially below its 52-week high of ₹534.00, underscoring the persistent downward pressure over the past year.

Comparatively, the stock’s returns have lagged the broader Sensex benchmark across most recent periods. Over the past week, Refex declined by 0.45% while Sensex gained 0.53%. The one-month and year-to-date returns for Refex were -12.18% and -11.13% respectively, both underperforming Sensex’s -3.17% and -3.37%. The one-year return starkly contrasts with a -50.19% drop for Refex against an 8.49% gain for Sensex, highlighting significant underperformance in the medium term.

Longer-term performance remains impressive, with a three-year return of 361.46% and a five-year return of 1173.28%, far outpacing Sensex’s 38.79% and 75.67% respectively. Over a decade, Refex’s return of 12,854.04% dwarfs the Sensex’s 236.52%, reflecting the company’s historical growth trajectory despite recent setbacks.

Technical Indicator Analysis: Mixed Signals Across Timeframes

The technical landscape for Refex Industries is nuanced, with several indicators presenting conflicting signals that suggest a transitional phase in price momentum.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The weekly MACD remains bearish, indicating that short-term momentum is still subdued. The monthly MACD, however, has improved to mildly bearish, suggesting a potential easing of downward pressure over the longer term but no definitive bullish reversal yet.

RSI (Relative Strength Index): Both weekly and monthly RSI readings are bullish, signalling that the stock is gaining positive momentum and may be entering oversold recovery phases. This divergence from MACD suggests that while momentum is improving, it has yet to translate into a sustained uptrend.

Bollinger Bands: Weekly Bollinger Bands indicate a mildly bearish stance, with price action likely constrained near the lower band, reflecting volatility and potential resistance. Monthly bands remain bearish, reinforcing the longer-term downtrend.

Moving Averages: Daily moving averages continue to show bearish trends, with the stock trading below key averages, indicating that short-term price action remains under pressure despite recent gains.

KST (Know Sure Thing): Weekly KST is bearish, while monthly KST is mildly bearish, further confirming the cautious outlook on momentum across different time horizons.

Dow Theory: Weekly readings are mildly bearish, with no clear trend established on the monthly scale, reflecting uncertainty in market sentiment and trend direction.

On-Balance Volume (OBV): Weekly OBV is mildly bullish, suggesting that buying volume is beginning to pick up, which could support price recovery if sustained. Monthly OBV shows no clear trend, indicating volume patterns have yet to confirm a definitive directional move.

Mojo Score and Market Capitalisation Insights

Refex Industries currently holds a Mojo Score of 40.0, categorised as a Sell grade, an improvement from its previous Strong Sell rating as of 11 Aug 2025. This upgrade reflects a modest enhancement in technical and fundamental parameters but still signals caution for investors. The company’s market cap grade stands at 3, indicating a mid-tier capitalisation relative to its sector peers.

The gradual improvement in the Mojo Grade suggests that while the stock is showing signs of stabilisation, it has yet to demonstrate the strength required for a confident buy recommendation. Investors should weigh this alongside the mixed technical signals and recent price volatility.

Sector and Industry Context

Operating within the Other Chemical products sector, Refex Industries faces sector-specific challenges including raw material price fluctuations, regulatory pressures, and demand variability. The sector’s overall performance has been mixed, with some companies showing resilience while others struggle with margin pressures. Refex’s technical indicators and price action must be viewed in this broader context, where external factors may continue to influence momentum and valuation.

Given the sector’s cyclical nature, the current mildly bearish to neutral technical stance may reflect a consolidation phase before a potential sector-wide recovery or further correction.

Investor Takeaways and Outlook

Investors analysing Refex Industries should consider the following key points:

• The recent price increase of nearly 6% in a single day suggests short-term buying interest, supported by bullish RSI and mildly bullish OBV on weekly charts.


• Longer-term indicators such as monthly MACD, Bollinger Bands, and moving averages remain bearish or mildly bearish, indicating that the stock has not yet broken free from its downtrend.


• The divergence between momentum indicators (RSI bullish vs. MACD bearish) signals a transitional phase, where caution is warranted until clearer confirmation of trend reversal emerges.


• Relative underperformance against the Sensex over recent months and the past year highlights ongoing challenges, despite impressive long-term returns.


• The upgrade from Strong Sell to Sell Mojo Grade reflects some improvement but still advises prudence.

Overall, Refex Industries appears to be at a technical crossroads. Short-term momentum is improving, but the stock remains vulnerable to broader sector and market headwinds. Investors with a higher risk tolerance may consider selective accumulation on dips, while more conservative participants might await stronger confirmation of trend reversal.

Conclusion

Refex Industries Ltd’s recent technical parameter changes highlight a stock in flux, with a mixture of bullish and bearish signals across weekly and monthly charts. While short-term momentum indicators such as RSI and OBV suggest improving investor sentiment, longer-term measures including MACD, moving averages, and Bollinger Bands caution against premature optimism.

The stock’s substantial underperformance relative to the Sensex over the past year further emphasises the need for careful analysis before committing capital. The upgrade in Mojo Grade from Strong Sell to Sell is a positive development but does not yet signal a definitive turnaround.

Investors should monitor upcoming price action closely, particularly for confirmation of trend reversals through sustained volume increases and moving average crossovers. Until then, a balanced approach combining selective exposure with risk management remains advisable.

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