Refex Industries Ltd Technical Momentum Shifts Amid Mixed Indicator Signals

Price Momentum and Recent Performance

Refex Industries Ltd, operating in the Other Chemical products sector, has seen its share price rise from a previous close of ₹227.35 to a high of ₹241.75 intraday on 10 Feb 2026. Despite this short-term strength, the stock remains significantly below its 52-week high of ₹534.00, indicating persistent longer-term challenges. The 52-week low stands at ₹209.80, placing the current price closer to the lower end of its annual range.

Examining returns relative to the benchmark Sensex reveals a mixed performance. Over the past week, Refex outperformed the Sensex with a 9.04% gain versus 2.94% for the index. The one-month return also shows modest outperformance at 1.57% compared to 0.59%. However, year-to-date, the stock has declined by 7.71%, underperforming the Sensex’s 1.36% loss. Over the one-year horizon, Refex’s return is deeply negative at -45.45%, contrasting sharply with the Sensex’s positive 7.97%. Longer-term returns remain impressive, with a three-year gain of 314.08% and a remarkable ten-year return of 13,645.70%, dwarfing the Sensex’s 249.97% over the same period.

Technical Indicator Analysis: A Mixed Bag

The technical trend for Refex Industries has shifted from a strongly bearish stance to a mildly bearish one, signalling a tentative improvement in market sentiment. However, the underlying indicators present a complex scenario.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains bearish on the weekly chart and mildly bearish on the monthly chart. This suggests that while short-term momentum is still weak, there is some easing of downward pressure over the longer term. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum oscillator, offers a more optimistic view, showing bullish readings on both weekly and monthly timeframes. This divergence between MACD and RSI indicates that while momentum is building, it has yet to translate into a sustained upward trend.

Bollinger Bands, which measure volatility and potential price extremes, are mildly bearish on both weekly and monthly charts. This implies that the stock price is still under pressure and may face resistance near the upper band. The daily moving averages remain bearish, reinforcing the notion that short-term price action is still constrained by downward forces.

Additional Technical Signals

The Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator, which aggregates multiple rate-of-change measures, is bearish on the weekly chart and mildly bearish on the monthly chart. This aligns with the MACD’s message of cautious momentum improvement but persistent weakness. Dow Theory analysis shows no clear trend on the weekly timeframe and a mildly bearish trend on the monthly timeframe, underscoring the lack of a definitive directional bias.

On-Balance Volume (OBV), a volume-based indicator used to confirm price trends, shows no trend on both weekly and monthly charts. This lack of volume confirmation suggests that recent price movements may not be strongly supported by investor participation, which could limit the sustainability of gains.

Mojo Score and Market Capitalisation Insights

Refex Industries currently holds a Mojo Score of 37.0, categorised as a Sell rating. This represents an upgrade from its previous Strong Sell grade assigned on 11 Aug 2025, indicating some improvement in the company’s outlook. The market capitalisation grade is a low 3, reflecting its relatively small size within the Other Chemical products sector. This combination of a modestly improved rating but still negative sentiment suggests that investors should remain cautious, as the stock has yet to demonstrate a convincing turnaround.

Comparative Sector and Market Context

Within the Other Chemical products industry, Refex Industries faces competitive pressures and sector-specific challenges that have weighed on its valuation. The stock’s recent outperformance relative to the Sensex in the short term is encouraging but must be weighed against its significant underperformance over the past year. The broader market environment remains volatile, with mixed signals from technical indicators across sectors. Investors should consider Refex’s technical profile alongside fundamental factors and sector trends before making allocation decisions.

Technical Outlook and Investor Considerations

The current technical landscape for Refex Industries suggests a cautious approach. The bullish RSI readings on weekly and monthly charts hint at potential upward momentum building beneath the surface. However, the persistent bearish signals from MACD, moving averages, Bollinger Bands, and KST indicators temper enthusiasm. The absence of volume confirmation via OBV further complicates the outlook, as sustainable rallies typically require strong trading participation.

Investors should monitor key technical levels closely. The stock’s ability to hold above the recent close of ₹240.00 and break through resistance near the intraday high of ₹241.75 will be critical. A sustained move above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, currently signalling bearish trends, would be a positive development. Conversely, a drop below the 52-week low of ₹209.80 would reinforce the bearish case.

Conclusion: A Stock in Transition

Refex Industries Ltd is currently navigating a transitional phase in its technical profile. While recent price momentum and bullish RSI readings offer hope for a recovery, the prevailing bearish signals from other key indicators and the lack of volume support counsel prudence. The upgrade from Strong Sell to Sell on the Mojo grading scale reflects this tentative improvement but also highlights ongoing risks.

For investors, the stock’s long-term historical returns remain impressive, but the near-term outlook is clouded by mixed technical signals and sector headwinds. Close attention to price action around critical moving averages and volume trends will be essential to gauge whether Refex can sustain a meaningful rebound or if further downside lies ahead.

In sum, Refex Industries Ltd presents a complex technical picture that demands careful analysis and a balanced approach, favouring those with a higher risk tolerance and a longer investment horizon.

Upgrade at special rates, valid only for the next few days. Claim Your Special Rate →