Key Events This Week
29 Dec 2025: Stock opens week at Rs.255.40, declines 2.95%
30 Dec 2025: Continued selling pressure, closes at Rs.250.70 (-1.84%)
31 Dec 2025: Intraday high surge of 9.07%, closes at Rs.260.05 (+3.73%)
1 Jan 2026: Modest gain of 0.54%, closes at Rs.261.45
2 Jan 2026: Mixed technical signals emerge, closes at Rs.262.10 (+0.25%)
29 December 2025: Sharp Opening Decline Amid Broader Market Weakness
Refex Industries Ltd opened the week at Rs.255.40 on 29 December, marking a decline of 2.95% from the previous close. This drop coincided with a broader market sell-off as the Sensex fell 0.41% to 37,140.23. The stock’s volume of 55,005 shares indicated moderate trading interest. The early weakness set a cautious tone for the week, reflecting investor concerns amid sector volatility.
30 December 2025: Continued Selling Pressure Narrows Gains
The downward trend persisted on 30 December, with Refex Industries closing at Rs.250.70, down 1.84% from the prior day. The Sensex was largely flat, edging down 0.01% to 37,135.83, signalling a lack of broad market support. Volume declined to 31,833 shares, suggesting reduced trading activity. The stock’s underperformance relative to the benchmark highlighted ongoing investor caution.
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31 December 2025: Intraday Surge Reverses Downtrend
On the final trading day of 2025, Refex Industries Ltd staged a notable rebound, surging 9.07% intraday to a high of Rs.267.35. The stock closed at Rs.260.05, up 3.73% from the previous close, outperforming the Sensex which gained 0.83% to 37,443.41. This rally marked a reversal after five consecutive days of decline, driven by strong buying interest and heightened volatility. The intraday volatility was calculated at 11.95%, reflecting active trading swings. Despite this bounce, the stock remained below key moving averages, indicating the broader downtrend was not fully reversed.
1 January 2026: Modest Gains Amid Mixed Market Sentiment
Refex Industries continued to edge higher on 1 January, closing at Rs.261.45, a 0.54% gain. The Sensex also advanced 0.14% to 37,497.10. Trading volume was 80,875 shares, showing renewed investor interest. The stock’s incremental rise suggested cautious optimism, though technical indicators remained mixed, with the price still below several moving averages.
2 January 2026: Mixed Technical Signals Amid Price Momentum Shift
The week concluded with Refex Industries closing at Rs.262.10, up 0.25% on the day, while the Sensex surged 0.81% to 37,799.57. Despite the modest price gain, technical analysis revealed a complex picture. The stock’s momentum shifted from strongly bearish to mildly bearish, with the weekly MACD remaining negative but monthly MACD showing slight improvement. The weekly RSI was neutral, while the monthly RSI was bullish, indicating potential longer-term strength. Bollinger Bands and moving averages continued to signal downside risk, and volume trends were inconclusive with a mildly bullish weekly On-Balance Volume but no clear monthly trend. These mixed signals suggest the stock is at a technical crossroads, balancing short-term weakness against tentative signs of recovery.
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Daily Price Comparison: Refex Industries Ltd vs Sensex
| Date | Stock Price | Day Change | Sensex | Day Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-29 | Rs.255.40 | -2.95% | 37,140.23 | -0.41% |
| 2025-12-30 | Rs.250.70 | -1.84% | 37,135.83 | -0.01% |
| 2025-12-31 | Rs.260.05 | +3.73% | 37,443.41 | +0.83% |
| 2026-01-01 | Rs.261.45 | +0.54% | 37,497.10 | +0.14% |
| 2026-01-02 | Rs.262.10 | +0.25% | 37,799.57 | +0.81% |
Key Takeaways
Positive Signals: The strong intraday surge on 31 December marked a significant reversal after a prolonged decline, demonstrating underlying buying interest. The weekly On-Balance Volume and monthly RSI indicators suggest tentative accumulation and potential for longer-term recovery. The stock’s modest gains on the last two trading days of the week reflect cautious optimism among investors.
Cautionary Signals: Despite the rebound, Refex Industries remains below key moving averages, with the weekly MACD and Bollinger Bands indicating persistent short-term bearish momentum. The stock underperformed the Sensex over the week, highlighting relative weakness. Volume trends remain mixed, and the technical outlook is characterised by uncertainty, signalling that the downtrend is not conclusively broken.
Long-Term Context: While recent performance has been subdued, Refex Industries has delivered exceptional long-term returns, outperforming the Sensex substantially over three, five, and ten-year horizons. This historical strength contrasts with the current technical challenges, underscoring the importance of monitoring evolving momentum and market conditions closely.
Conclusion
Refex Industries Ltd’s week was marked by volatility and mixed signals, with a sharp intraday rally on 31 December offsetting early losses and culminating in a modest overall gain by week’s end. The stock’s technical indicators reveal a transition from strong bearishness to a more tempered, mildly bearish stance, reflecting a market in flux. While the long-term track record remains impressive, the current environment calls for careful analysis as the stock navigates short-term headwinds amid broader market gains. Investors should watch key technical levels and volume patterns closely to gauge whether the tentative signs of recovery can be sustained in the coming weeks.
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