Price Performance and Market Context
On 2 February 2026, Reliance Industries closed at ₹1,346.00, down 3.57% from the previous close of ₹1,395.90. The stock traded within a range of ₹1,335.70 to ₹1,410.95 during the day, remaining well below its 52-week high of ₹1,611.20 but comfortably above the 52-week low of ₹1,115.55. This recent price weakness contrasts with the broader market, as the Sensex declined by 1.00% over the past week, while Reliance’s stock fell by 2.88% in the same period.
Over longer horizons, Reliance’s returns have been mixed relative to the Sensex. The stock has underperformed the benchmark over the past month (-12.64% vs. -4.67%) and year-to-date (-14.23% vs. -5.28%), signalling short-term headwinds. However, over one year, Reliance has outpaced the Sensex with a 7.37% gain compared to 5.16%, and over five and ten years, it has delivered robust returns of 60.22% and 470.61% respectively, outperforming the Sensex’s 74.40% and 224.57% gains over the same periods.
Technical Indicator Analysis: Mixed Signals Emerge
The technical landscape for Reliance Industries has shifted noticeably, with several key indicators signalling caution. The overall technical trend has moved from mildly bullish to sideways, reflecting uncertainty in price direction.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Both weekly and monthly MACD readings are mildly bearish, indicating that momentum is weakening. The MACD line has crossed below its signal line on the weekly chart, suggesting a potential short-term downtrend, while the monthly chart confirms this mild bearishness, signalling that the longer-term momentum is also under pressure.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI on both weekly and monthly timeframes currently shows no clear signal, hovering near neutral levels. This suggests that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold, reinforcing the sideways momentum narrative.
Bollinger Bands: Both weekly and monthly Bollinger Bands are bearish, with the price trending towards the lower band. This indicates increased volatility and a potential continuation of downward pressure in the near term.
Moving Averages: On a daily basis, moving averages remain mildly bullish, with the stock price still above some key short-term averages. However, the gap between the price and longer-term moving averages is narrowing, signalling that the bullish momentum is weakening.
KST (Know Sure Thing): The weekly KST indicator is mildly bearish, while the monthly KST remains bullish. This divergence suggests that while short-term momentum is deteriorating, the longer-term trend may still hold some strength.
Dow Theory: Both weekly and monthly Dow Theory assessments are mildly bearish, indicating that the primary trend may be under threat, with potential for further downside or consolidation.
On-Balance Volume (OBV): No clear trend is evident in OBV on weekly or monthly charts, implying that volume is not confirming any strong directional move, which adds to the sideways momentum interpretation.
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Mojo Score and Grade Revision
MarketsMOJO has revised Reliance Industries’ Mojo Grade from Buy to Hold as of 6 January 2026, reflecting the deteriorating technical outlook and recent price weakness. The current Mojo Score stands at 52.0, indicating a neutral stance. The Market Cap Grade remains at 1, underscoring Reliance’s status as a large-cap heavyweight in the oil sector but signalling limited upside from a market capitalisation perspective at present.
This downgrade aligns with the technical indicators’ signals, suggesting investors should exercise caution and monitor price action closely before committing to new positions.
Comparative Sector and Market Performance
Within the oil sector, Reliance’s recent underperformance relative to the Sensex and sector peers is notable. The broader market’s more modest declines contrast with Reliance’s sharper pullback, raising questions about sector-specific headwinds such as fluctuating crude oil prices, regulatory developments, or company-specific factors impacting investor sentiment.
Despite these challenges, Reliance’s long-term fundamentals remain robust, supported by diversified operations spanning refining, petrochemicals, retail, and digital services. This diversification may provide some cushion against sector volatility, but the current technical signals advise prudence.
Outlook and Investor Considerations
Investors should weigh the mixed technical signals carefully. The mildly bearish MACD and Bollinger Bands, combined with a sideways overall trend, suggest limited near-term upside and potential for further consolidation or correction. The absence of strong volume confirmation via OBV and neutral RSI readings reinforce this cautious outlook.
However, the mildly bullish daily moving averages and monthly KST indicate that the longer-term uptrend is not yet decisively broken. This implies that while short-term momentum has weakened, the stock may find support and stabilise if broader market conditions improve or if company fundamentals strengthen.
Given the downgrade to Hold, investors currently holding Reliance shares might consider tightening stop-loss levels or reducing exposure, while new entrants may prefer to wait for clearer technical confirmation before initiating positions.
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Summary
Reliance Industries Ltd is currently navigating a phase of technical uncertainty, with momentum indicators signalling a shift from mild bullishness to a sideways trend. The downgrade in Mojo Grade to Hold reflects this evolving landscape, underscoring the need for investors to adopt a cautious stance. While the stock’s long-term fundamentals remain sound, short-term technical signals advise vigilance amid increased volatility and price weakness.
Market participants should monitor key technical levels and broader sector developments closely, balancing the stock’s historical strength against emerging headwinds. For those seeking alternatives, analytical tools highlight other large-cap opportunities with potentially stronger momentum and value characteristics.
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