Technical Momentum and Price Action Overview
On 26 Feb 2026, Reliance Industries closed at ₹1,398.20, down 2.23% from the previous close of ₹1,430.15. The intraday range saw a high of ₹1,440.00 and a low of ₹1,393.50, reflecting increased selling pressure. The stock remains well below its 52-week high of ₹1,611.20 but comfortably above the 52-week low of ₹1,115.55, indicating a wide trading band over the past year.
Over the past week, Reliance’s stock return was -2.99%, underperforming the Sensex’s -1.74% return. Year-to-date, the stock has declined by 10.91%, significantly lagging the Sensex’s 3.46% fall. Despite this, the one-year return remains robust at 16.14%, outperforming the Sensex’s 10.29%. However, over longer horizons such as three and five years, Reliance has underperformed the benchmark, with returns of 28.58% and 43.02% respectively, compared to Sensex’s 38.36% and 61.20%. The ten-year return of 549.63% remains impressive, more than doubling the Sensex’s 258.10% gain.
MACD and Momentum Indicators Signal Bearishness
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator presents a mixed but predominantly bearish picture. On the weekly chart, MACD is firmly bearish, indicating downward momentum in the near term. The monthly MACD is mildly bearish, suggesting that while the longer-term trend is weakening, it has not yet fully turned negative. This divergence between weekly and monthly MACD readings highlights a transitional phase where short-term selling pressure is intensifying.
The Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator also reflects this duality. Weekly KST is bearish, reinforcing the short-term negative momentum, whereas the monthly KST remains bullish, signalling that the broader trend may still hold some strength. This contrast emphasises the importance of monitoring weekly price action closely for potential further declines or a reversal.
RSI and Bollinger Bands: Neutral to Bearish Signals
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on both weekly and monthly timeframes currently shows no clear signal, hovering in neutral zones. This lack of extreme readings suggests that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold, leaving room for further directional movement based on other technical factors.
Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart are bearish, with the price trending towards the lower band, indicating increased volatility and downward pressure. Conversely, the monthly Bollinger Bands are sideways, reflecting a consolidation phase over the longer term. This pattern suggests that while short-term volatility is rising, the stock may be stabilising in a broader range.
Moving Averages and Dow Theory Assessments
Daily moving averages provide a mildly bullish signal, with the stock price remaining above key short-term averages. This indicates some underlying support and potential for short-term rebounds. However, weekly and monthly Dow Theory assessments are mildly bearish, signalling that the primary trend may be weakening. This divergence between short-term moving averages and longer-term trend theory highlights the complexity of the current technical landscape.
On-Balance Volume (OBV) analysis shows a mildly bearish trend on the weekly chart, suggesting that volume is not supporting recent price gains. The monthly OBV shows no clear trend, indicating a lack of conviction among investors over the longer term.
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Mojo Score and Market Capitalisation Insights
Reliance Industries currently holds a Mojo Score of 47.0, categorised as a Sell rating, downgraded from Hold on 25 Feb 2026. This downgrade reflects the deteriorating technical parameters and cautious sentiment among analysts. The company’s Market Cap Grade is 1, indicating a relatively low score in market capitalisation metrics compared to peers in the oil sector.
This downgrade is significant given Reliance’s stature as a large-cap heavyweight in the oil industry. The shift from Hold to Sell suggests that investors should exercise caution and closely monitor technical developments before committing fresh capital.
Comparative Performance and Sector Context
Within the oil sector, Reliance’s recent underperformance relative to the Sensex and its own historical returns is notable. While the broader market has shown resilience, Reliance’s technical indicators point to a weakening momentum that could impact near-term price appreciation. The stock’s 1-month return of 0.88% slightly trails the Sensex’s 0.91%, and its 1-week return of -2.99% is significantly worse than the benchmark’s -1.74%.
Investors should weigh these technical signals against fundamental factors and sector dynamics, including global oil prices, regulatory developments, and company-specific news, which could influence the stock’s trajectory.
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Investor Takeaway and Outlook
The technical landscape for Reliance Industries Ltd is currently characterised by a cautious tone. The shift from mildly bullish to mildly bearish momentum, as evidenced by weekly MACD and KST indicators, alongside bearish Bollinger Bands and Dow Theory signals, suggests that the stock may face headwinds in the near term.
However, the absence of extreme RSI readings and mildly bullish daily moving averages indicate that the stock is not in oversold territory and could see short-term rebounds if supported by positive catalysts. Investors should remain vigilant for confirmation of trend direction in the coming weeks, particularly watching weekly MACD and volume trends for signs of sustained selling or recovery.
Given the downgrade to a Sell rating and the current technical signals, a defensive stance may be prudent. Monitoring sector developments and broader market conditions will be essential to gauge whether Reliance can regain momentum or if further downside is likely.
Long-Term Performance Context
Despite recent technical challenges, Reliance’s long-term performance remains impressive. The ten-year return of 549.63% significantly outpaces the Sensex’s 258.10%, underscoring the company’s historical ability to generate substantial shareholder value. This long-term strength may provide some comfort to investors considering the current technical weakness as a potential buying opportunity on dips.
Nevertheless, the underperformance over the three- and five-year periods relative to the Sensex highlights the importance of a nuanced approach, balancing technical signals with fundamental analysis and market conditions.
Conclusion
Reliance Industries Ltd is at a technical crossroads, with momentum indicators signalling a shift towards bearishness in the short to medium term. The downgrade in Mojo Grade to Sell reflects this evolving technical picture. While the stock’s long-term fundamentals and historical returns remain strong, investors should approach with caution and consider alternative opportunities within the sector or broader market until clearer signs of trend reversal emerge.
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