Reliance Industries Ltd Shows Mixed Technical Signals Amid Mildly Bullish Momentum

Price Momentum and Recent Market Performance

On 4 February 2026, Reliance Industries closed at ₹1,437.85, marking a significant intraday high of ₹1,489.00 and a low of ₹1,431.00. This represents a 3.43% gain from the previous close of ₹1,390.15. The stock remains below its 52-week high of ₹1,611.20 but comfortably above the 52-week low of ₹1,115.55, indicating a recovery phase within a broader upward channel.

Comparatively, RIL outperformed the Sensex over the past week, delivering a 4.11% return against the benchmark’s 2.30%. However, over the one-month and year-to-date periods, the stock underperformed, declining 9.71% and 8.38% respectively, compared to the Sensex’s more modest falls of 2.36% and 1.74%. Over longer horizons, RIL’s returns remain robust, with a 15.48% gain over one year and an impressive 543.33% over ten years, far outpacing the Sensex’s 8.49% and 245.70% respectively.

Technical Indicator Analysis: Mixed Signals

The technical landscape for Reliance Industries is characterised by a blend of bullish and bearish signals across different timeframes and indicators, reflecting a complex momentum environment.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): On a weekly basis, the MACD remains mildly bearish, suggesting some short-term selling pressure or consolidation. Conversely, the monthly MACD is bullish, indicating that the longer-term trend retains upward momentum. This divergence points to potential short-term volatility within an overall positive trend.

RSI (Relative Strength Index): Both weekly and monthly RSI readings currently provide no clear signal, hovering in neutral zones. This suggests the stock is neither overbought nor oversold, leaving room for directional movement without immediate risk of reversal due to extreme momentum.

Bollinger Bands: Weekly Bollinger Bands indicate a mildly bearish stance, implying that price volatility has increased with a slight downward bias in the short term. However, the monthly Bollinger Bands are bullish, reinforcing the longer-term upward price channel.

Moving Averages: Daily moving averages have turned mildly bullish, signalling that recent price action is gaining strength. This is a positive sign for traders looking for confirmation of a trend shift from sideways to upward momentum.

KST (Know Sure Thing): The weekly KST remains mildly bearish, while the monthly KST is bullish. This aligns with the MACD’s mixed timeframe signals, underscoring the importance of monitoring short-term fluctuations within a longer-term uptrend.

Dow Theory: Both weekly and monthly Dow Theory assessments are mildly bearish, indicating some caution among market participants and the possibility of intermittent corrections despite the broader bullish undertone.

On-Balance Volume (OBV): No clear trend is discernible on weekly or monthly OBV charts, suggesting volume has not decisively confirmed price movements recently. This lack of volume confirmation may temper enthusiasm for a strong breakout in the near term.

Technical Trend Shift and Market Capitalisation Assessment

The overall technical trend for Reliance Industries has shifted from a sideways pattern to a mildly bullish trajectory. This transition is supported by daily moving averages and monthly momentum indicators, suggesting that the stock may be entering a phase of gradual appreciation. However, the presence of mildly bearish weekly signals advises caution for short-term traders.

Reliance’s Market Cap Grade remains at 1, reflecting its status as a dominant large-cap stock within the oil sector. Despite a recent downgrade in its Mojo Grade from Buy to Hold on 6 January 2026, the company maintains a Mojo Score of 62.0, indicating a moderate investment appeal based on MarketsMOJO’s comprehensive evaluation framework.

Investors should note that the downgrade reflects a recalibration of expectations amid mixed technical signals and recent price volatility rather than a fundamental deterioration. The oil sector’s cyclical nature and global energy market dynamics continue to influence Reliance’s stock performance.

Comparative Returns and Long-Term Outlook

When benchmarked against the Sensex, Reliance Industries has demonstrated superior long-term returns, particularly over the past decade where it has delivered a staggering 543.33% gain compared to the Sensex’s 245.70%. This outperformance underscores the company’s resilience and growth potential despite short-term fluctuations.

However, the recent underperformance over one month (-9.71%) and year-to-date (-8.38%) relative to the Sensex’s smaller declines suggests that investors are currently more cautious. This may be attributed to sector-specific headwinds or broader market uncertainties impacting oil prices and energy demand forecasts.

Investment Implications and Strategic Considerations

For investors, the current technical profile of Reliance Industries suggests a cautious but constructive stance. The mildly bullish daily moving averages and monthly momentum indicators provide a foundation for potential upside, while the weekly bearish signals and neutral RSI readings counsel prudence in the short term.

Given the stock’s strong long-term track record and dominant market position, it remains a core holding candidate for portfolios with a medium to long-term horizon. However, traders seeking near-term gains should monitor key technical levels closely, particularly the 52-week high of ₹1,611.20 as a resistance point and the recent support near ₹1,390.15.

Volume trends, as indicated by the lack of a clear OBV signal, should also be watched for confirmation of any breakout or breakdown. A sustained increase in volume accompanying price advances would strengthen the bullish case, while declining volume could signal a lack of conviction.

Sector dynamics, including global oil price movements and regulatory developments, will continue to influence Reliance’s trajectory. Investors should integrate these macro factors with technical insights to formulate balanced strategies.

Summary of Technical Ratings and Market Position

MarketsMOJO’s comprehensive assessment currently assigns Reliance Industries a Hold rating with a Mojo Score of 62.0, reflecting a tempered outlook amid mixed technical signals. The downgrade from Buy on 6 January 2026 highlights the need for investors to reassess risk-reward profiles in light of recent price momentum shifts.

While the stock’s large market capitalisation and sector leadership remain intact, the mildly bearish weekly indicators and neutral momentum readings suggest that a period of consolidation or moderate volatility may persist before a decisive trend emerges.

Investors are advised to maintain a balanced view, leveraging technical analysis alongside fundamental and sectoral insights to navigate the evolving landscape.

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