Reliance Infrastructure Ltd Faces Intensified Downtrend Amid Weak Technical Signals

Price Momentum and Recent Performance

Reliance Infrastructure’s current market price stands at ₹141.40, down sharply from the previous close of ₹148.80, reflecting a day decline of 4.97%. This drop significantly outpaces the broader Sensex’s modest 0.75% decline over the same one-week period, highlighting the stock’s underperformance. Over the past month, the stock has plunged 18.48%, compared to the Sensex’s 1.98% fall, while year-to-date losses amount to 14.20% against the benchmark’s 2.32% decline.

Looking at longer-term returns, the stock has suffered a 50.51% loss over the past year, starkly contrasting with the Sensex’s 8.65% gain. Even over a decade, Reliance Infrastructure’s price has declined by 70.19%, while the Sensex has surged 240.06%. These figures illustrate the stock’s persistent struggles despite occasional short-term rallies.

Technical Indicators Signal Bearish Momentum

The technical trend for Reliance Infrastructure has shifted decisively from mildly bearish to bearish, reflecting a worsening outlook. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator, a key momentum oscillator, remains bearish on both weekly and monthly charts, signalling sustained downward momentum. The MACD line continues to trade below its signal line, confirming the dominance of sellers.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), however, remains neutral with no clear signal on weekly or monthly timeframes, suggesting the stock is neither oversold nor overbought at present. This lack of RSI confirmation indicates that while momentum is negative, the stock has not yet reached extreme levels that might prompt a technical rebound.

Bollinger Bands also reinforce the bearish stance, with the stock price hugging the lower band on weekly and monthly charts. This pattern typically indicates strong selling pressure and heightened volatility, often preceding further declines unless a reversal catalyst emerges.

Moving Averages and Trend Analysis

Daily moving averages for Reliance Infrastructure are firmly bearish, with the stock trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. This alignment confirms the prevailing downtrend and suggests resistance at higher levels. The KST (Know Sure Thing) indicator, which aggregates multiple momentum cycles, is bearish on the weekly chart and mildly bearish monthly, further supporting the negative technical outlook.

Dow Theory assessments show a mildly bearish trend on the weekly scale, while the monthly trend remains without a clear directional bias. This mixed signal implies that while short-term momentum is weak, longer-term trend confirmation is still pending, leaving room for potential volatility.

On-balance volume (OBV) indicators show no definitive trend on weekly or monthly charts, indicating that volume flows have not decisively favoured buyers or sellers recently. This neutral volume pattern suggests that price declines may be driven more by sentiment than by strong institutional selling.

Mojo Score and Market Capitalisation Insights

Reliance Infrastructure’s Mojo Score currently stands at a low 26.0, reflecting a strong sell recommendation. This represents a downgrade from its previous sell rating as of 08 September 2025, signalling deteriorating fundamentals and technicals. The company’s market capitalisation grade is rated 3, indicating a relatively modest market cap compared to peers in the power sector.

The stock’s 52-week high of ₹425.00 contrasts sharply with its current price near ₹141.40, underscoring the significant value erosion over the past year. The 52-week low of ₹127.95 suggests the stock is approaching multi-month lows, but the absence of RSI oversold signals tempers expectations of an imminent rebound.

Sector and Industry Context

Operating within the power sector, Reliance Infrastructure faces sectoral headwinds including regulatory challenges, fluctuating commodity prices, and evolving energy demand patterns. Compared to the broader power industry, the stock’s technical deterioration is more pronounced, reflecting company-specific issues alongside sector-wide pressures.

Investors should note that while the power sector has seen pockets of recovery, Reliance Infrastructure’s technical indicators lag behind, suggesting caution. The bearish signals across multiple timeframes and indicators imply that the stock may continue to underperform unless there is a significant change in operational or market conditions.

Investor Takeaway and Outlook

Given the comprehensive bearish signals from MACD, Bollinger Bands, and moving averages, alongside the stock’s underperformance relative to the Sensex, investors should approach Reliance Infrastructure with caution. The downgrade to a strong sell rating by MarketsMOJO reflects both technical weakness and fundamental concerns.

While the RSI does not yet indicate oversold conditions, the persistent downtrend and failure to reclaim key moving averages suggest limited near-term upside. Investors seeking exposure to the power sector may consider alternative stocks with stronger technical profiles and more favourable momentum.

In summary, Reliance Infrastructure’s technical parameter changes highlight a clear shift towards intensified selling pressure and negative momentum. Until there is a confirmed reversal in key indicators or a fundamental catalyst, the stock is likely to remain under pressure.

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