SEPC Ltd Technical Momentum Shifts Amid Mixed Market Signals

Technical Trend Overview and Price Movement

On 10 February 2026, SEPC Ltd closed at ₹9.77, marking an 8.31% increase from the previous close of ₹9.02. The stock traded within a range of ₹9.29 to ₹9.94 during the day, reflecting heightened intraday volatility. Despite this uptick, the stock remains significantly below its 52-week high of ₹17.45, while comfortably above its 52-week low of ₹7.69. This price action suggests a tentative recovery phase, albeit within a broader downtrend context.

The technical trend has shifted from outright bearish to mildly bearish, signalling a potential stabilisation but not yet a definitive reversal. This subtle change is critical for investors seeking to gauge the stock’s momentum and risk profile.

MACD Signals: Divergent Weekly and Monthly Perspectives

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator presents a mixed scenario for SEPC Ltd. On a weekly basis, the MACD is mildly bullish, indicating that short-term momentum is gaining some traction. This is often interpreted as a positive sign for potential upward price movement in the near term. However, the monthly MACD remains bearish, reflecting persistent downward pressure over a longer horizon.

This divergence between weekly and monthly MACD readings suggests that while short-term traders might find opportunities, long-term investors should remain cautious given the prevailing negative momentum on a broader scale.

RSI and Bollinger Bands: Neutral to Mildly Bearish Signals

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on both weekly and monthly charts currently shows no clear signal, hovering in neutral territory. This indicates that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold, implying a lack of strong directional conviction from momentum traders at present.

Conversely, Bollinger Bands on weekly and monthly timeframes are mildly bearish, suggesting that price volatility remains skewed towards downside risk. The bands’ contraction and positioning hint at potential price consolidation or a cautious trading range, which may precede a more decisive move.

Moving Averages and KST: Predominantly Bearish Outlook

Daily moving averages for SEPC Ltd remain mildly bearish, indicating that the stock price is still trending below key short-term averages such as the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. This suggests that despite recent gains, the stock has yet to establish a sustained upward trajectory.

The Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator, a momentum oscillator, is bearish on both weekly and monthly charts. This reinforces the notion of underlying weakness in the stock’s price action, signalling that momentum remains subdued and caution is warranted.

Dow Theory and On-Balance Volume (OBV): Mixed Signals

According to Dow Theory, the weekly trend is mildly bullish, hinting at a possible emerging uptrend in the short term. However, the monthly Dow Theory trend shows no clear direction, reflecting uncertainty in the broader market context for SEPC Ltd.

On-Balance Volume (OBV), which measures buying and selling pressure, shows no discernible trend on either weekly or monthly timeframes. This lack of volume confirmation suggests that recent price movements may not be strongly supported by investor participation, limiting conviction behind the current momentum shift.

Comparative Returns: SEPC Ltd vs Sensex

SEPC Ltd’s recent returns present a mixed picture when compared with the benchmark Sensex index. Over the past week, SEPC surged 22.58%, significantly outperforming the Sensex’s 2.94% gain. Similarly, the one-month return of 5.62% also outpaces the Sensex’s 0.59% rise.

However, year-to-date (YTD) returns tell a different story, with SEPC declining 3.55% compared to the Sensex’s modest 1.36% loss. Over longer horizons, the stock has underperformed markedly: a 43.00% drop over one year versus a 7.97% gain for the Sensex, and a 22.43% decline over three years against a robust 38.25% Sensex increase.

Even over five years, SEPC has delivered a strong 109.85% gain, outperforming the Sensex’s 63.78% rise, but the 10-year return remains deeply negative at -60.01%, contrasting sharply with the Sensex’s 249.97% growth. These figures highlight the stock’s volatile performance and cyclical challenges within the construction sector.

Mojo Score and Grade: Slight Improvement but Still a Sell

SEPC Ltd’s current Mojo Score stands at 37.0, reflecting a modest improvement from its previous standing. The Mojo Grade has been upgraded from Strong Sell to Sell as of 2 December 2025, signalling a slight easing in negative sentiment but still cautioning investors against aggressive buying.

The company’s market cap grade is rated 3, indicating a mid-tier capitalisation within its sector. This rating, combined with the technical and fundamental signals, suggests that while the stock may offer some short-term trading opportunities, it remains a risky proposition for long-term investors.

Sector Context and Outlook

Operating within the construction industry, SEPC Ltd faces sector-specific headwinds including fluctuating raw material costs, regulatory challenges, and cyclical demand patterns. The mixed technical signals mirror these uncertainties, with short-term momentum showing signs of recovery but longer-term indicators cautioning restraint.

Investors should closely monitor key technical levels, particularly the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, alongside volume trends to confirm any sustained trend reversal. Additionally, broader market conditions and sectoral developments will play a crucial role in shaping SEPC’s trajectory in the coming months.

Conclusion: A Cautious Approach Recommended

SEPC Ltd’s recent technical momentum shift from bearish to mildly bearish, supported by a mildly bullish weekly MACD and neutral RSI, suggests tentative optimism. However, the persistence of bearish monthly indicators, subdued volume trends, and mixed Dow Theory signals counsel prudence.

While the stock’s recent price gains and weekly outperformance relative to the Sensex are encouraging, the longer-term underperformance and ongoing sector challenges temper enthusiasm. Investors should weigh these factors carefully, considering both technical signals and fundamental context before making allocation decisions.

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