Technical Trend and Momentum Analysis
Recent technical assessments reveal that Shiva Cement's overall trend has softened from bearish to mildly bearish, signalling a tentative attempt at stabilisation rather than a decisive reversal. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator presents a nuanced picture: the weekly MACD has turned mildly bullish, suggesting some short-term positive momentum, while the monthly MACD remains bearish, indicating that longer-term downward pressure persists.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum oscillator, currently offers no clear signal on either the weekly or monthly charts, hovering in neutral territory. This lack of directional RSI guidance implies that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold, leaving room for volatility depending on forthcoming market catalysts.
Bollinger Bands, which measure price volatility and potential reversal points, are mildly bearish on both weekly and monthly timeframes. This suggests that price movements remain constrained within a downward trending channel, with limited upside breakout potential in the near term.
Daily moving averages continue to signal bearishness, reinforcing the view that short-term price action is still dominated by selling pressure. The Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator adds complexity, showing a mildly bullish stance on the weekly chart but bearish on the monthly, mirroring the MACD's mixed signals and underscoring the stock's uncertain momentum trajectory.
Price Action and Volume Considerations
Shiva Cement closed at ₹20.06, up slightly from the previous close of ₹19.85, with intraday highs reaching ₹20.48 and lows touching ₹19.70. The 52-week price range remains wide, with a high of ₹42.74 and a low of ₹19.60, highlighting significant volatility and a steep decline from peak levels.
Volume-based indicators such as On-Balance Volume (OBV) are currently unreported, limiting insights into the strength behind recent price moves. However, the absence of a clear volume trend suggests that buying interest has yet to gain meaningful traction to support a sustained rally.
Comparative Performance Versus Sensex
When benchmarked against the Sensex, Shiva Cement's returns have been notably disappointing. Over the past week, the stock declined by 10.53%, sharply underperforming the Sensex's modest 1.00% loss. This underperformance extends across longer periods: a 1-month return of -8.94% versus Sensex's -4.67%, and a year-to-date return of -8.82% compared to the Sensex's -5.28%.
More starkly, the 1-year and 3-year returns reveal a severe lag, with Shiva Cement down 46.38% and 60.01% respectively, while the Sensex posted gains of 5.16% and 35.67% over the same periods. Even over five years, the stock's 2.59% gain pales in comparison to the Sensex's robust 74.40% advance. Only on a 10-year horizon does Shiva Cement's 207.93% return approach the Sensex's 224.57%, reflecting some long-term value creation despite recent struggles.
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Mojo Score and Rating Implications
MarketsMOJO assigns Shiva Cement a Mojo Score of 23.0, categorising it as a Strong Sell. This represents a downgrade from the previous Sell rating issued on 25 Aug 2025, reflecting deteriorating technical and fundamental conditions. The Market Cap Grade stands at 4, indicating a relatively modest market capitalisation that may limit liquidity and institutional interest.
The downgrade to Strong Sell is consistent with the mixed technical signals and the stock’s persistent underperformance relative to the broader market. Investors should be cautious, as the technical indicators suggest that any short-term rallies may be countered by prevailing bearish forces.
Sector Context and Industry Comparison
Operating within the Cement & Cement Products sector, Shiva Cement faces headwinds from subdued demand and pricing pressures that have impacted the industry broadly. While some peers have managed to stabilise or even recover, Shiva Cement’s technical and price momentum remain weak, underscoring company-specific challenges.
Sectoral trends and macroeconomic factors such as infrastructure spending and raw material costs will continue to influence the stock’s trajectory. However, the current technical landscape suggests limited upside without a significant catalyst or improvement in fundamentals.
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Investor Takeaway and Outlook
In summary, Shiva Cement Ltd’s technical indicators reveal a stock caught between tentative short-term bullish signals and persistent longer-term bearish trends. The weekly MACD and KST hint at mild bullish momentum, but monthly indicators and daily moving averages maintain a bearish stance. The absence of RSI signals and subdued Bollinger Band dynamics further complicate the outlook.
Price action near the lower end of the 52-week range, combined with significant underperformance against the Sensex, suggests that investors should exercise caution. The Strong Sell Mojo Grade reinforces the need for prudence, especially for those seeking stable or appreciating investments within the cement sector.
Until there is a clear technical breakout supported by volume and fundamental improvements, Shiva Cement is likely to remain under pressure. Investors may consider monitoring the stock closely for any shifts in momentum or sectoral catalysts that could alter its trajectory.
Technical Summary Table
Key technical indicators as of 2 Feb 2026:
- Trend: Mildly Bearish (from Bearish)
- MACD: Weekly - Mildly Bullish; Monthly - Bearish
- RSI: Weekly & Monthly - No Signal
- Bollinger Bands: Weekly & Monthly - Mildly Bearish
- Moving Averages (Daily): Bearish
- KST: Weekly - Mildly Bullish; Monthly - Bearish
- Dow Theory: Weekly & Monthly - No Trend
Price and Returns Overview
Current Price: ₹20.06 | Previous Close: ₹19.85 | 52-Week High: ₹42.74 | 52-Week Low: ₹19.60
Returns vs Sensex:
- 1 Week: -10.53% vs -1.00%
- 1 Month: -8.94% vs -4.67%
- Year-to-Date: -8.82% vs -5.28%
- 1 Year: -46.38% vs +5.16%
- 3 Years: -60.01% vs +35.67%
- 5 Years: +2.59% vs +74.40%
- 10 Years: +207.93% vs +224.57%
Given these metrics, Shiva Cement remains a challenging proposition for investors prioritising technical strength and relative performance.
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