SJVN Ltd. Technical Momentum Shifts Amid Bearish Signals

Recent Price Movement and Market Context

On 20 Jan 2026, SJVN Ltd. closed at ₹74.51, down 3.10% from the previous close of ₹76.89. The intraday range saw a high of ₹76.92 and a low of ₹74.37, hovering near its 52-week low of ₹69.82, while significantly below its 52-week high of ₹107.50. This price action underscores the stock’s vulnerability amid broader market pressures and sector-specific challenges.

Comparatively, SJVN’s returns have been mixed over various time horizons. While it outperformed the Sensex over the medium to long term — delivering a 119.47% return over three years and 197.45% over five years versus Sensex’s 36.79% and 68.52% respectively — the stock has underperformed in the short term. Notably, it declined 7.49% over the past week against a modest 0.75% gain in the Sensex, and posted a 26.23% loss over the past year while the benchmark rose 8.65%.

Technical Trend Shift: From Mildly Bearish to Bearish

The technical trend for SJVN has deteriorated from mildly bearish to outright bearish, signalling increased downside risk. This shift is corroborated by multiple technical indicators across different time frames:

• Moving Averages (Daily): The stock is trading below its key moving averages, confirming a bearish daily trend. The downward slope of these averages suggests sustained selling pressure.


• Bollinger Bands (Weekly and Monthly): Both weekly and monthly Bollinger Bands indicate bearish momentum, with price action gravitating towards the lower band, reflecting heightened volatility and downside bias.


• KST (Know Sure Thing) Indicator: Both weekly and monthly KST readings are bearish, reinforcing the negative momentum across intermediate and longer-term horizons.


• Dow Theory: Weekly and monthly Dow Theory assessments remain mildly bearish, indicating that the broader market structure for the stock is under pressure.

Mixed Signals from Momentum Indicators

While the overall technical picture is bearish, some momentum indicators present a nuanced view:

• MACD: The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator shows a mildly bullish signal on the weekly chart, suggesting some short-term positive momentum. However, the monthly MACD remains bearish, indicating that longer-term momentum is still negative.


• RSI: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on both weekly and monthly charts currently shows no clear signal, hovering in neutral territory. This suggests that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold, leaving room for further directional movement.


• On-Balance Volume (OBV): Weekly OBV shows no discernible trend, but the monthly OBV is bullish, implying that accumulation may be occurring at a longer-term level despite price weakness.

Mojo Score and Grade Analysis

SJVN’s Mojo Score currently stands at 21.0, a significant deterioration from its previous Sell grade to a Strong Sell rating as of 6 Nov 2024. This downgrade reflects a comprehensive reassessment of the stock’s fundamentals and technical outlook by MarketsMOJO’s proprietary scoring system. The low score is driven by weak price momentum, deteriorating technical trends, and a market cap grade of 2, indicating limited market capitalisation strength relative to peers.

The Strong Sell rating is a clear caution for investors, signalling that the stock is expected to underperform in the near to medium term. This is consistent with the bearish signals from moving averages, Bollinger Bands, and KST indicators.

Sector and Industry Context

Operating within the power sector, SJVN faces sector-specific headwinds including regulatory uncertainties, fluctuating energy demand, and competitive pressures from renewable energy sources. While the power industry has shown resilience, SJVN’s technical deterioration contrasts with some peers that have maintained stronger momentum and fundamentals.

Investors should weigh these sector dynamics alongside the stock’s technical signals before making allocation decisions.

Risk and Opportunity Considerations

Despite the bearish technical landscape, the monthly OBV’s bullish indication suggests that some institutional accumulation may be underway, potentially signalling a base-building phase. However, the absence of a clear RSI signal and the bearish monthly MACD counsel caution, as the stock may remain under pressure until a definitive reversal pattern emerges.

Given the stock’s proximity to its 52-week low and the significant underperformance over the past year, value investors might consider monitoring for signs of technical recovery or fundamental catalysts before initiating positions.

Conclusion: Navigating SJVN’s Bearish Technical Landscape

SJVN Ltd.’s recent technical parameter changes highlight a clear shift towards bearish momentum, with multiple indicators confirming downside risks. The downgrade to a Strong Sell Mojo Grade and a low Mojo Score of 21.0 reinforce the cautionary stance investors should adopt. While some mixed signals from MACD and OBV hint at potential longer-term accumulation, the prevailing trend remains negative across daily, weekly, and monthly time frames.

Investors should closely monitor key technical levels, particularly the 52-week low of ₹69.82, and watch for any reversal signals in momentum indicators before considering new positions. Given the stock’s underperformance relative to the Sensex over the past year and the power sector’s evolving dynamics, a prudent approach is warranted.

For those currently holding SJVN, evaluating alternative power sector stocks with stronger technical and fundamental profiles may be advisable to optimise portfolio performance.

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