SJVN Ltd. Technical Momentum Shifts Amid Mixed Indicator Signals

Technical Trend Overview: A Shift from Bearish to Mildly Bearish

The technical landscape for SJVN Ltd. has evolved recently, with the overall trend moving from a clear bearish stance to a mildly bearish one. This subtle shift is underscored by mixed signals from key momentum indicators. On the weekly chart, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned mildly bullish, suggesting some short-term upward momentum. However, the monthly MACD remains bearish, indicating that longer-term pressures persist.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on both weekly and monthly timeframes currently shows no definitive signal, hovering in neutral zones that neither confirm overbought nor oversold conditions. This lack of directional clarity in RSI suggests that the stock is consolidating, awaiting a catalyst to break decisively in either direction.

Moving Averages and Bollinger Bands: Bearish Bias Prevails

Daily moving averages continue to exert bearish pressure on SJVN’s price action. The stock currently trades at ₹73.32, slightly above the previous close of ₹72.28, but well below its 52-week high of ₹107.50. The 52-week low stands at ₹68.17, indicating a relatively narrow trading range in recent months. The daily moving averages’ bearish alignment suggests that short-term selling pressure remains intact, limiting upside potential.

Bollinger Bands on both weekly and monthly charts also signal a mildly bearish outlook. The bands are relatively tight, reflecting subdued volatility, but the price action near the lower band on the monthly scale hints at potential downside risk if selling intensifies. This technical setup implies that while the stock is not in free fall, it faces resistance to sustained rallies.

Additional Momentum Indicators: KST and Dow Theory Insights

The Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator presents a split view: weekly readings are mildly bullish, aligning with the MACD’s short-term optimism, but monthly KST remains bearish, reinforcing the longer-term caution. Dow Theory analysis further complicates the picture, showing no clear trend on the weekly scale and a mildly bearish stance monthly. This divergence between short- and long-term indicators suggests that investors should remain vigilant and consider time horizon carefully when evaluating SJVN’s prospects.

Volume and On-Balance Volume (OBV) Analysis

Volume-based indicators such as On-Balance Volume (OBV) show no significant trend on either weekly or monthly charts. The absence of strong volume confirmation for price moves indicates that recent price changes may lack conviction from institutional investors. This volume neutrality adds to the technical uncertainty, as sustained moves typically require robust volume support.

Performance Comparison: SJVN vs. Sensex

Examining SJVN’s returns relative to the benchmark Sensex reveals a mixed performance profile. Over the past week, SJVN outperformed the Sensex with a 3.87% gain versus the index’s 2.94%. However, this short-term strength is offset by underperformance over longer periods. The stock declined 6.14% over the past month while the Sensex rose 0.59%, and year-to-date returns show a 1.95% loss compared to the Sensex’s 1.36% decline.

More strikingly, over the past year, SJVN’s stock price has fallen 23.19%, contrasting sharply with the Sensex’s 7.97% gain. Despite this, the company has delivered impressive long-term returns, with 127.00% over three years and 178.25% over five years, outperforming the Sensex’s 38.25% and 63.78% respectively. The 10-year return of 162.33% trails the Sensex’s 249.97%, reflecting sector-specific headwinds in recent years.

Mojo Score and Rating: Strong Sell Signals Intensify

MarketsMOJO’s proprietary scoring system assigns SJVN Ltd. a Mojo Score of 27.0, reflecting a deteriorated technical and fundamental outlook. The company’s Mojo Grade was recently downgraded from Sell to Strong Sell on 6 Nov 2024, signalling increased caution among analysts. This downgrade is supported by a Market Cap Grade of 2, indicating limited market capitalisation strength relative to peers in the power sector.

The Strong Sell rating is consistent with the mixed technical signals and the bearish longer-term momentum indicators. Investors should weigh these warnings carefully, especially given the stock’s underperformance relative to the broader market over the past year.

Price Action and Volatility: Current Trading Range

On 10 Feb 2026, SJVN’s stock price opened near ₹72.39, touched a high of ₹73.43, and closed at ₹73.32. This intraday range reflects modest volatility, with the stock trading close to its recent lows. The proximity to the 52-week low of ₹68.17 suggests limited upside momentum, while the distance from the 52-week high of ₹107.50 underscores the challenges in regaining previous strength.

Given the daily moving averages’ bearish stance and the Bollinger Bands’ mildly bearish signals, the stock appears to be in a consolidation phase with a downward bias. Traders should monitor for a breakout above the upper Bollinger Band or a sustained move above key moving averages to confirm any reversal in trend.

Sector Context and Industry Dynamics

SJVN operates within the power sector, a space currently facing regulatory and demand-side uncertainties. While the sector has shown resilience in some segments, the mixed technical signals for SJVN may reflect company-specific challenges such as project delays, tariff pressures, or capital expenditure concerns. Investors should consider these sectoral headwinds alongside technical analysis when forming investment decisions.

Investor Takeaway: Navigating Mixed Signals

For investors tracking SJVN Ltd., the current technical picture is one of cautious optimism tempered by significant risks. Short-term momentum indicators such as the weekly MACD and KST suggest mild bullishness, but these are offset by bearish monthly signals and daily moving averages. The absence of strong volume confirmation further complicates the outlook.

Given the stock’s recent downgrade to Strong Sell and its underperformance relative to the Sensex over the past year, investors should approach with prudence. Those with a longer investment horizon may find value in the company’s strong multi-year returns, but near-term volatility and sector challenges warrant close monitoring.

Technical traders might wait for clearer confirmation of trend reversal, such as a sustained break above key moving averages or a bullish crossover in monthly MACD, before committing to new positions. Conversely, risk-averse investors may prefer to explore alternative power sector stocks with stronger momentum and fundamentals.

Conclusion

SJVN Ltd.’s technical momentum has shifted to a mildly bearish stance, reflecting a complex interplay of short-term bullish signals and longer-term bearish pressures. The stock’s recent upgrade in daily price and weekly momentum indicators offers some hope, but the prevailing monthly bearishness and weak volume trends caution against aggressive buying. MarketsMOJO’s Strong Sell rating reinforces the need for careful analysis before investment.

Investors should balance the company’s historical outperformance over three to five years against recent underperformance and technical deterioration. Monitoring key technical indicators and sector developments will be essential in navigating SJVN’s evolving market position.

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