Price Movement and Market Context
As of 2 January 2026, SPIC closed at ₹83.45, down 0.71% from the previous close of ₹84.05. The stock traded within a narrow intraday range, hitting a high of ₹84.89 and a low of ₹83.14. This price level remains significantly below its 52-week high of ₹128.10, yet comfortably above the 52-week low of ₹66.25, indicating a wide trading band over the past year.
Comparatively, SPIC’s returns over various periods reveal a mixed performance relative to the Sensex benchmark. Over the past week, the stock outperformed the Sensex with a 4.09% gain versus a 0.26% decline in the index. However, on a one-month and year-to-date basis, SPIC slightly underperformed, with returns of -0.52% and -0.71% respectively, compared to the Sensex’s -0.53% and -0.04%. Over longer horizons, SPIC has delivered robust gains, notably a 10.57% return over the past year against the Sensex’s 8.51%, and an impressive 242.71% over five years, far outpacing the Sensex’s 77.96%.
Technical Trend Shift: From Mildly Bearish to Bearish
The recent technical trend change from mildly bearish to bearish signals a deterioration in momentum. This shift is corroborated by several key indicators. The daily moving averages are firmly bearish, suggesting that short-term price action is under pressure. The weekly MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) remains bearish, reinforcing the downtrend, while the monthly MACD is mildly bearish, indicating some longer-term caution but not a definitive sell-off.
RSI (Relative Strength Index) readings on both weekly and monthly charts currently show no clear signal, hovering in neutral territory. This lack of momentum in the RSI suggests that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold, leaving room for either a reversal or continuation of the current trend.
Bollinger Bands and KST Analysis
Bollinger Bands provide insight into volatility and price extremes. On the weekly chart, the bands are mildly bearish, indicating that price is trending towards the lower band, a sign of selling pressure. The monthly Bollinger Bands are bearish, reinforcing the longer-term downtrend. Conversely, the KST (Know Sure Thing) indicator presents a mixed view: bearish on the weekly timeframe but bullish on the monthly, suggesting that while short-term momentum is weak, there may be underlying strength over the longer term.
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Additional Technical Indicators: OBV and Dow Theory
On-Balance Volume (OBV) analysis on the weekly chart is mildly bearish, indicating that volume trends are not strongly supporting price advances. The monthly OBV shows no clear trend, suggesting indecision among market participants. Dow Theory readings add further nuance: weekly signals are mildly bullish, hinting at some accumulation or positive price action in the short term, while the monthly perspective shows no definitive trend, reflecting uncertainty in the broader market context.
Mojo Score and Market Capitalisation Insights
MarketsMOJO assigns SPIC a Mojo Score of 51.0, reflecting a neutral stance with a Mojo Grade of Hold. This represents an upgrade from a previous Sell rating as of 31 December 2025, signalling a modest improvement in the stock’s technical and fundamental outlook. The company’s market capitalisation grade stands at 3, indicating a mid-tier market cap relative to peers in the fertiliser sector.
These ratings suggest that while SPIC is not currently a strong buy candidate, it has stabilised from prior weakness and may offer selective opportunities for investors with a medium-term horizon.
Sector and Industry Context
Operating within the fertilisers industry, SPIC’s performance is influenced by sectoral dynamics such as commodity prices, government policies, and agricultural demand cycles. The sector has seen mixed momentum recently, with some stocks benefiting from rising input costs and others pressured by regulatory changes. SPIC’s technical indicators reflect this uncertainty, with bearish short-term signals tempered by some longer-term bullish hints.
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Investor Takeaway: Balancing Caution with Opportunity
Investors analysing SPIC should weigh the bearish technical momentum against the stock’s historical resilience and long-term gains. The current price near ₹83.45 is well below the 52-week high, offering a potential entry point for those anticipating a recovery. However, the bearish daily moving averages and weekly MACD caution against aggressive buying in the near term.
The neutral RSI and mixed KST readings suggest that the stock is at a technical crossroads, where a decisive move in either direction could set the tone for coming months. Given the Mojo Grade upgrade to Hold, investors might consider a watchful approach, monitoring for confirmation of trend reversals or further deterioration.
Comparing SPIC’s returns with the Sensex reveals that while the stock has outperformed over the past year and five years, it has lagged over three years, highlighting the cyclical nature of the fertiliser sector and the importance of timing in investment decisions.
Conclusion
Southern Petrochemical Industries Ltd. currently exhibits a bearish technical momentum with mixed signals from key indicators. While short-term trends suggest caution, longer-term indicators and recent rating upgrades imply potential for stabilisation or recovery. Investors should remain vigilant, balancing the stock’s historical performance and sector fundamentals against the prevailing technical signals before committing capital.
Summary of Key Technical Indicators:
- Daily Moving Averages: Bearish
- Weekly MACD: Bearish
- Monthly MACD: Mildly Bearish
- Weekly RSI: No Signal
- Monthly RSI: No Signal
- Weekly Bollinger Bands: Mildly Bearish
- Monthly Bollinger Bands: Bearish
- Weekly KST: Bearish
- Monthly KST: Bullish
- Weekly Dow Theory: Mildly Bullish
- Monthly Dow Theory: No Trend
- Weekly OBV: Mildly Bearish
- Monthly OBV: No Trend
Price and Returns Overview:
- Current Price: ₹83.45
- 52-Week High: ₹128.10
- 52-Week Low: ₹66.25
- 1 Week Return: +4.09% (Sensex: -0.26%)
- 1 Month Return: -0.52% (Sensex: -0.53%)
- Year-to-Date Return: -0.71% (Sensex: -0.04%)
- 1 Year Return: +10.57% (Sensex: +8.51%)
- 3 Year Return: -4.41% (Sensex: +40.02%)
- 5 Year Return: +242.71% (Sensex: +77.96%)
- 10 Year Return: +229.19% (Sensex: +225.63%)
Mojo Score and Grade: Mojo Score 51.0, Mojo Grade Hold (upgraded from Sell on 31 Dec 2025)
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