Spel Semiconductor Ltd Faces Bearish Momentum Amid Technical Downgrade

Technical Momentum Shifts to Bearish Territory

Spel Semiconductor Ltd’s share price closed at ₹159.40 on 5 Feb 2026, down 1.94% from the previous close of ₹162.55. The stock’s intraday range fluctuated between ₹154.90 and ₹165.00, reflecting heightened volatility. Over the past 52 weeks, the stock has traded between ₹100.05 and ₹262.80, indicating a wide price band and significant historical price swings.

Recent technical assessments reveal a transition from a mildly bearish to a fully bearish trend. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator, a key momentum gauge, remains bearish on the weekly chart and mildly bearish on the monthly timeframe. This suggests that the stock’s downward momentum is strengthening in the short term, although longer-term signals remain somewhat less severe.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), often used to identify overbought or oversold conditions, currently shows no definitive signal on both weekly and monthly charts. This neutral RSI reading implies that the stock is neither overextended on the upside nor deeply oversold, leaving room for further directional movement.

Moving Averages and Bollinger Bands Confirm Downtrend

Daily moving averages for Spel Semiconductor Ltd are mildly bearish, indicating that short-term price averages are trending lower. This is corroborated by the Bollinger Bands, which are bearish on both weekly and monthly charts. The bands’ contraction and downward slope suggest increasing selling pressure and potential for further downside volatility.

The Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator, which aggregates multiple rate-of-change measures, aligns with this bearish outlook. It is bearish on the weekly timeframe and mildly bearish monthly, reinforcing the view that momentum is weakening across multiple horizons.

Mixed Signals from Dow Theory and On-Balance Volume

Interestingly, the Dow Theory presents a nuanced picture. While the weekly Dow Theory reading is mildly bullish, the monthly perspective remains mildly bearish. This divergence highlights the complexity of the stock’s price action, where short-term optimism is tempered by longer-term caution.

On-Balance Volume (OBV) data is currently unavailable, limiting insights into volume-driven price trends. However, the existing technical indicators collectively point towards a cautious stance for investors.

Strong Sell Rating Reflects Technical Weakness

Reflecting these developments, MarketsMOJO has downgraded Spel Semiconductor Ltd’s Mojo Grade from Sell to Strong Sell as of 11 Dec 2025. The company’s Mojo Score stands at 12.0, underscoring significant technical and fundamental concerns. The Market Cap Grade remains modest at 4, indicating a mid-tier market capitalisation relative to peers.

Despite the bearish technical signals, it is important to contextualise the stock’s performance against broader market benchmarks. Over the past week, Spel Semiconductor Ltd has outperformed the Sensex with an 8.29% return versus the index’s 1.79%. Over one month, the stock surged 14.27%, while the Sensex declined 2.27%. Year-to-date, the stock gained 16.52% compared to a 1.65% drop in the Sensex.

Long-Term Returns Outpace Market Despite Recent Weakness

While short-term technicals have deteriorated, Spel Semiconductor Ltd’s long-term returns remain impressive. Over three years, the stock has delivered a staggering 252.27% return, vastly outperforming the Sensex’s 37.76% gain. Over five years, the stock’s return of 1144.34% dwarfs the Sensex’s 65.60%, and over a decade, it has appreciated 685.22% compared to the Sensex’s 244.38%.

This exceptional long-term performance reflects the company’s underlying growth potential and sectoral tailwinds in Other Electrical Equipment. However, the recent technical deterioration suggests that investors should exercise caution and closely monitor momentum indicators before committing fresh capital.

Price Action and Volatility Considerations

The stock’s recent price action shows a decline from the previous close of ₹162.55 to ₹159.40, with intraday lows touching ₹154.90. This downward movement, coupled with bearish Bollinger Bands and moving averages, signals increased volatility and potential for further downside pressure in the near term.

Investors should note that the stock’s 52-week high of ₹262.80 remains significantly above current levels, indicating a substantial retracement. The 52-week low of ₹100.05 provides a distant support level, but the current technical setup suggests that the stock may test intermediate support zones before any sustained recovery.

Investor Takeaway: Navigating Mixed Signals

Spel Semiconductor Ltd’s current technical profile presents a challenging landscape for investors. The downgrade to a Strong Sell Mojo Grade reflects deteriorating momentum and increasing bearishness across key technical indicators such as MACD, Bollinger Bands, and moving averages. However, the absence of extreme RSI signals and the mildly bullish weekly Dow Theory reading suggest that the stock is not yet in oversold territory, leaving room for potential short-term rebounds.

Given the stock’s strong long-term outperformance relative to the Sensex, investors with a higher risk tolerance may consider selective accumulation on confirmed technical support levels. Conversely, those prioritising capital preservation should heed the bearish signals and consider reducing exposure or exploring alternative opportunities within the sector.

Ultimately, close monitoring of weekly and monthly momentum indicators will be crucial in assessing whether Spel Semiconductor Ltd can stabilise and resume its upward trajectory or if further downside is imminent.

Summary of Key Technical Indicators:

• MACD: Weekly Bearish, Monthly Mildly Bearish
• RSI: Neutral on Weekly and Monthly
• Bollinger Bands: Bearish on Weekly and Monthly
• Moving Averages: Daily Mildly Bearish
• KST: Weekly Bearish, Monthly Mildly Bearish
• Dow Theory: Weekly Mildly Bullish, Monthly Mildly Bearish

Price and Returns Overview:

• Current Price: ₹159.40
• Previous Close: ₹162.55
• 52-Week High: ₹262.80
• 52-Week Low: ₹100.05
• 1 Week Return: +8.29% vs Sensex +1.79%
• 1 Month Return: +14.27% vs Sensex -2.27%
• Year-to-Date Return: +16.52% vs Sensex -1.65%
• 1 Year Return: +3.31% vs Sensex +6.66%
• 3 Year Return: +252.27% vs Sensex +37.76%
• 5 Year Return: +1144.34% vs Sensex +65.60%
• 10 Year Return: +685.22% vs Sensex +244.38%

In conclusion, Spel Semiconductor Ltd’s recent technical deterioration warrants caution despite its impressive historical returns. Investors should weigh the bearish momentum signals against the stock’s long-term growth narrative and consider portfolio diversification strategies accordingly.

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