Technical Trend and Moving Averages
The overall technical trend for SpiceJet has transitioned from mildly bearish to bearish, reflecting a more pronounced negative momentum in recent trading sessions. Daily moving averages reinforce this stance, with the stock price positioned below key averages, signalling sustained selling pressure. This alignment typically indicates that short-term price action is under pressure, and the stock may face resistance in attempting to regain upward momentum.
On the daily chart, the bearish stance of moving averages suggests that the stock has yet to find a stable support level that could catalyse a reversal. The current price range between ₹30.00 and ₹30.75 for the day remains close to the 52-week low of ₹28.13, underscoring the challenges faced by the airline in regaining investor confidence.
MACD and Momentum Oscillators
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator presents a nuanced view. On a weekly basis, the MACD remains mildly bullish, hinting at some underlying positive momentum that could support short-term rallies. However, the monthly MACD is bearish, indicating that the longer-term momentum remains subdued. This divergence between weekly and monthly MACD readings suggests that while short-term traders might find opportunities, the broader trend remains under pressure.
Complementing this, the Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator echoes a similar pattern: mildly bullish on the weekly timeframe but bearish on the monthly scale. Such mixed signals often reflect market indecision or a transitional phase where the stock is attempting to stabilise after a period of decline.
Relative Strength Index and Bollinger Bands
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on both weekly and monthly charts currently does not provide a definitive signal, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions. This neutral RSI reading suggests that the stock is not exhibiting extreme momentum in either direction, which may imply a consolidation phase or a pause in directional movement.
In contrast, Bollinger Bands on both weekly and monthly timeframes are bearish. The stock price is closer to the lower band, signalling increased volatility and a tendency towards downward price pressure. This technical setup often precedes either a continuation of the downtrend or a potential rebound if the price finds support near the lower band.
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Volume and Dow Theory Perspectives
Volume-based indicators such as On-Balance Volume (OBV) have not provided clear directional cues on weekly or monthly charts, which may reflect subdued trading interest or a lack of conviction among market participants. This absence of volume confirmation often complicates the interpretation of price movements and can signal a period of uncertainty.
Dow Theory analysis presents a split view: mildly bearish on the weekly timeframe but mildly bullish on the monthly. This divergence suggests that while short-term price action may be under pressure, the longer-term trend could be attempting to stabilise or reverse. Investors and traders should monitor these signals closely for confirmation of trend direction.
Price Performance Relative to Sensex
SpiceJet’s price returns over various periods highlight the challenges faced by the airline sector amid broader market conditions. Over the past week, the stock recorded a decline of 8.64%, significantly underperforming the Sensex’s marginal fall of 0.40%. The one-month return shows a sharper contraction of 17.12%, compared to the Sensex’s slight dip of 0.23%.
Year-to-date and one-year returns for SpiceJet stand at -45.05% and -45.91% respectively, contrasting with the Sensex’s positive returns of 8.12% and 5.36% over the same periods. This stark divergence underscores the sector-specific headwinds impacting SpiceJet, including operational challenges and market sentiment.
Longer-term performance also reflects this trend, with three-year, five-year, and ten-year returns for SpiceJet at -25.02%, -70.04%, and -54.74% respectively, while the Sensex posted gains of 37.73%, 79.90%, and 231.05% over these intervals. Such data points illustrate the persistent difficulties faced by the airline in delivering shareholder value relative to the broader market.
Intraday Price Range and Volatility
On 19 Dec 2025, SpiceJet’s intraday price fluctuated between ₹30.00 and ₹30.75, with a closing price of ₹30.44, slightly below the previous close of ₹30.53. This narrow range near the lower end of the 52-week price band suggests limited buying interest and ongoing pressure near support levels. The 52-week high of ₹61.99 remains distant, indicating that the stock has yet to regain significant upward momentum.
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Implications for Investors and Market Participants
The recent assessment changes in SpiceJet’s technical parameters highlight a market environment where the stock faces considerable headwinds. The bearish trend in moving averages and Bollinger Bands, combined with mixed momentum signals from MACD and KST, suggest that the stock is navigating a challenging phase with limited clarity on a sustained recovery.
Investors should weigh these technical signals alongside fundamental factors and sector dynamics before making decisions. The airline industry continues to grapple with operational costs, fluctuating fuel prices, and competitive pressures, all of which influence market sentiment and price action.
Given the divergence between short-term mildly bullish signals and longer-term bearish momentum, market participants may find opportunities in tactical trades but should remain cautious about the broader trend. Monitoring volume trends and confirmation from momentum oscillators will be critical in assessing potential shifts in price direction.
Conclusion
SpiceJet’s stock price momentum and technical indicators present a complex landscape marked by a shift towards bearishness in key parameters. While some weekly indicators suggest mild bullishness, the prevailing monthly signals and moving averages point to ongoing downward pressure. The stock’s performance relative to the Sensex further emphasises the challenges faced by the airline sector in the current market environment.
Investors and analysts will need to closely observe upcoming price action and technical signals to gauge whether SpiceJet can stabilise and reverse its trend or if further consolidation and declines are likely. The interplay of technical momentum, volume, and broader market conditions will remain pivotal in shaping the stock’s trajectory in the near term.
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