Recent Price Movement and Market Context
On 10 December 2025, SpiceJet's share price closed at ₹34.31, marking a daily gain of 5.57% from the previous close of ₹32.50. The intraday range spanned from ₹32.60 to ₹34.99, indicating heightened volatility. Despite this short-term price strength, the stock remains considerably below its 52-week high of ₹61.99, while trading above its 52-week low of ₹28.13.
Comparing SpiceJet's returns with the broader Sensex index highlights a challenging environment for the airline. Over the past week, SpiceJet's stock recorded an 8.03% return, contrasting with the Sensex's decline of 0.55%. However, over longer periods, the stock's performance has lagged significantly. Year-to-date, SpiceJet's return stands at -38.07%, while the Sensex has advanced by 8.35%. Over one year, SpiceJet's return is -43.30%, compared to the Sensex's 3.87% gain. The disparity extends further over three, five, and ten-year horizons, underscoring persistent headwinds for the airline sector relative to the broader market.
Technical Trend Evolution
Technical analysis reveals a shift in SpiceJet's trend from bearish to mildly bearish on a recent assessment. This subtle change suggests a potential easing of downward momentum, though the overall trend remains cautious. Daily moving averages indicate a mildly bearish stance, reflecting that short-term price averages continue to exert downward pressure.
On the weekly timeframe, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator signals a mildly bullish momentum, suggesting some strengthening in price momentum. Conversely, the monthly MACD remains bearish, indicating that longer-term momentum has yet to confirm a sustained recovery. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on both weekly and monthly charts currently shows no definitive signal, implying that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold in these periods.
Bollinger Bands and KST Indicators
Bollinger Bands, which measure price volatility and potential reversal points, present a bullish signal on the weekly chart, indicating that recent price movements are pushing towards the upper band and suggesting upward momentum. However, the monthly Bollinger Bands remain mildly bearish, reflecting a more cautious outlook over the longer term.
The Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator, a momentum oscillator, aligns with the MACD in showing mildly bullish signals on the weekly chart, while the monthly KST remains bearish. This divergence between short- and long-term momentum indicators highlights the complexity of SpiceJet's current technical landscape.
Dow Theory and Volume Considerations
According to Dow Theory, weekly signals for SpiceJet are mildly bearish, indicating that the prevailing trend on this timeframe is still under pressure. In contrast, the monthly Dow Theory perspective is mildly bullish, suggesting that the broader market forces may be shifting in favour of the stock over a longer horizon.
On-Balance Volume (OBV) data for both weekly and monthly periods is currently unavailable, limiting insights into volume-driven momentum. Volume analysis often provides confirmation of price trends, and its absence leaves some uncertainty in interpreting the strength behind recent price moves.
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Moving Averages and Momentum Analysis
Daily moving averages for SpiceJet currently indicate a mildly bearish trend, suggesting that short-term price averages remain below longer-term averages. This technical configuration often signals caution among traders, as it may reflect ongoing selling pressure or consolidation phases.
The weekly MACD's mildly bullish stance contrasts with the monthly bearish signal, illustrating a divergence between short- and long-term momentum. This divergence can sometimes precede a trend reversal but also warrants careful monitoring for confirmation.
RSI readings on weekly and monthly charts do not currently provide clear signals, indicating that the stock is trading in a neutral zone without extremes of buying or selling pressure. This neutrality may reflect indecision among market participants or a pause in directional momentum.
Comparative Performance and Sector Context
SpiceJet operates within the airline industry, a sector that has faced significant volatility due to fluctuating fuel costs, regulatory changes, and shifting travel demand patterns. The stock's performance relative to the Sensex index underscores the challenges faced by the company and its peers.
While the Sensex has shown positive returns over multiple timeframes, SpiceJet's returns have been negative, particularly over the medium to long term. For instance, over the past five years, SpiceJet's stock has recorded a return of -63.42%, whereas the Sensex has appreciated by 83.64%. This stark contrast highlights the sector-specific pressures impacting the airline.
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Outlook and Investor Considerations
The current technical landscape for SpiceJet suggests a period of cautious observation. Mixed signals from momentum indicators such as MACD, RSI, and Bollinger Bands across different timeframes imply that the stock is navigating a complex phase. Short-term momentum shows signs of mild bullishness, while longer-term indicators remain more reserved or bearish.
Investors analysing SpiceJet should consider the broader sector dynamics alongside these technical signals. The airline industry continues to face headwinds from operational costs and market uncertainties, which are reflected in the stock's subdued long-term returns compared to the broader market.
Monitoring the evolution of moving averages and momentum oscillators in the coming weeks will be critical to identifying any sustained shifts in trend. Additionally, volume-based indicators, once available, could provide further clarity on the conviction behind price movements.
Summary
SpiceJet's share price momentum has experienced a subtle shift, with technical indicators presenting a mixed picture. While weekly momentum oscillators and Bollinger Bands suggest some short-term strength, monthly indicators and moving averages maintain a more cautious stance. The stock's performance relative to the Sensex highlights ongoing sector challenges, with significant negative returns over medium and long-term periods.
Investors should weigh these technical signals alongside fundamental and sector-specific factors when assessing SpiceJet's prospects. The current environment calls for careful analysis and monitoring of evolving market conditions.
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