SRF Ltd. Technical Momentum Shifts Amid Bearish Indicators

Technical Trend Overview and Momentum Shift

SRF Ltd.’s technical trend has transitioned from mildly bearish to outright bearish, reflecting a deterioration in price momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator, a widely used momentum oscillator, remains bearish on the weekly chart and mildly bearish on the monthly timeframe. This suggests that the stock’s short-term momentum is weakening, while longer-term momentum is also under pressure but less severe.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), another momentum gauge, currently shows no clear signal on both weekly and monthly charts, indicating a lack of strong directional momentum or potential consolidation. However, the Bollinger Bands, which measure volatility and price levels relative to moving averages, are bearish on both weekly and monthly scales, signalling that the stock price is trending towards the lower band and may be under selling pressure.

Daily moving averages reinforce this bearish outlook, with the stock trading below key averages, confirming downward momentum in the short term. The Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator presents a mixed picture: bearish on the weekly chart but bullish on the monthly, suggesting some longer-term strength that is currently overshadowed by short-term weakness.

Price Action and Volume Analysis

SRF Ltd. closed at ₹2,685.00, slightly up by 0.22% from the previous close of ₹2,679.05. The intraday range was between ₹2,651.95 and ₹2,715.00, indicating moderate volatility. Despite this minor gain, the stock remains closer to its 52-week low of ₹2,569.95 than its 52-week high of ₹3,319.00, underscoring the recent price weakness.

On-balance volume (OBV), which tracks buying and selling pressure, is mildly bearish on both weekly and monthly charts. This suggests that volume trends are not supporting a strong price rally, and selling pressure may be gradually increasing.

Comparative Returns and Market Context

When compared to the broader market, SRF Ltd.’s performance has lagged significantly. Over the past week, the stock declined by 5.23%, while the Sensex gained 0.23%. The one-month return shows a similar pattern with SRF down 6.55% against a 0.77% rise in the Sensex. Year-to-date, the stock has fallen 12.67%, considerably underperforming the Sensex’s 2.82% decline.

Over longer horizons, SRF’s returns have been more favourable. The five-year return stands at an impressive 143.44%, more than double the Sensex’s 62.73%. The ten-year return is even more striking at 1,110.06%, vastly outperforming the Sensex’s 249.29%. This indicates that while the stock has strong long-term growth credentials, recent technical signals and short-term price action warrant caution.

Mojo Score and Grade Downgrade

MarketsMOJO’s proprietary scoring system has downgraded SRF Ltd.’s mojo grade from Hold to Sell as of 16 Feb 2026, reflecting the deteriorating technical and fundamental outlook. The current mojo score stands at 48.0, which is below the threshold for a neutral or positive rating. The market capitalisation grade is low at 2, indicating limited market cap strength relative to peers.

This downgrade aligns with the bearish technical signals and the stock’s underperformance relative to the benchmark indices. Investors should weigh these factors carefully, especially given the mixed signals from longer-term indicators such as the KST and Dow Theory, which show mildly bullish trends on weekly charts but no clear monthly trend.

Sector and Industry Considerations

SRF Ltd. operates within the specialty chemicals sector, a space that has faced volatility due to fluctuating raw material costs, regulatory changes, and global demand shifts. The sector’s cyclical nature means that technical momentum can be heavily influenced by macroeconomic factors. Currently, the sector is experiencing mixed signals, with some companies showing resilience while others, including SRF, face headwinds.

Given the sector’s complexity, technical indicators should be considered alongside fundamental analysis and broader market conditions. The bearish signals in SRF’s technicals may reflect sector-wide pressures as well as company-specific challenges.

Investor Implications and Outlook

For investors, the current technical landscape suggests caution. The bearish MACD, moving averages, and Bollinger Bands indicate that downward momentum may persist in the near term. The lack of strong RSI signals suggests the stock is not yet oversold, implying further downside risk is possible before a meaningful reversal.

However, the longer-term bullish signals from the KST and Dow Theory weekly charts, combined with SRF’s strong historical returns, suggest that the stock could regain momentum if sector conditions improve and company fundamentals strengthen.

Investors should monitor key support levels near the 52-week low of ₹2,569.95 and watch for any shifts in volume trends or technical indicators signalling a reversal. Until then, the downgrade to a Sell rating and the current technical signals advise prudence.

Conclusion

SRF Ltd.’s recent technical parameter changes highlight a shift towards bearish momentum, with multiple indicators confirming weakening price action. The downgrade in mojo grade to Sell reflects these developments and the stock’s underperformance relative to the Sensex. While longer-term indicators offer some hope of recovery, the immediate outlook remains cautious.

Investors should consider these technical signals alongside fundamental factors and sector dynamics before making investment decisions. Monitoring key technical levels and volume trends will be crucial in assessing whether SRF Ltd. can regain upward momentum or if further downside lies ahead.

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