Technical Trend Shift and Momentum Analysis
STC’s technical trend has transitioned from mildly bearish to outright bearish, reflecting increasing selling pressure and weakening price momentum. The stock closed at ₹117.95 on 2 February 2026, down 2.44% from the previous close of ₹120.90. Intraday, it traded between ₹117.95 and ₹122.70, remaining well below its 52-week high of ₹168.50, signalling a significant retracement from recent peaks.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator, a key momentum oscillator, remains bearish on both weekly and monthly timeframes. This suggests that the stock’s short-term momentum is aligned with a downward trajectory, with the MACD line below the signal line and both positioned beneath the zero line. Such a configuration typically indicates sustained selling pressure and a lack of bullish reversal signals.
Similarly, Bollinger Bands on weekly and monthly charts are bearish, with the price hugging or moving below the lower band. This often reflects increased volatility and downward momentum, reinforcing the negative outlook. The daily moving averages also confirm this bearish stance, with the stock price trading below key averages such as the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which act as resistance levels.
RSI and Other Momentum Indicators
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on weekly and monthly charts currently shows no clear signal, hovering in a neutral zone without indicating oversold or overbought conditions. This lack of divergence or extreme readings suggests that while momentum is negative, the stock is not yet in an oversold state that might prompt a technical bounce.
The Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator, which aggregates multiple rate-of-change measures, is bearish on both weekly and monthly timeframes, further confirming the downward momentum. Meanwhile, Dow Theory and On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicators show no definitive trend or volume confirmation, indicating that volume patterns have not yet decisively supported either bulls or bears.
Price Performance Relative to Sensex
When compared with the broader market, STC’s returns have been mixed but generally underwhelming over recent periods. Over the past week, the stock outperformed the Sensex with a 2.57% gain versus the Sensex’s 1.00% decline. However, this short-term strength is overshadowed by longer-term underperformance. Over one month, STC declined by 8.92%, nearly double the Sensex’s 4.67% fall. Year-to-date, the stock is down 7.78%, compared to the Sensex’s 5.28% drop.
Over the one-year horizon, STC’s return stands at -14.19%, starkly contrasting with the Sensex’s positive 5.16% gain. This underperformance highlights the stock’s vulnerability amid broader market strength. Over three years, however, STC has delivered a 48.09% return, outperforming the Sensex’s 35.67%, indicating some resilience in the medium term. Yet, over five years, the stock’s 56.12% gain trails the Sensex’s 74.40%, and over ten years, STC has declined by 11.71% while the Sensex surged 224.57%, underscoring long-term challenges.
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MarketsMOJO Ratings and Quality Grades
MarketsMOJO has downgraded STC’s Mojo Grade from Sell to Strong Sell as of 28 July 2025, reflecting the deteriorating technical and fundamental outlook. The current Mojo Score stands at 3.0, signalling weak momentum and caution for investors. The Market Cap Grade is 4, indicating a mid-tier market capitalisation relative to peers in the Trading & Distributors sector.
This downgrade is consistent with the bearish technical indicators and the stock’s recent price action. Investors should note that the combination of a Strong Sell rating and bearish technical signals suggests limited near-term upside and elevated downside risk.
Technical Indicators in Detail
The daily moving averages are firmly bearish, with the stock price below the 50-day and 200-day averages, which are themselves trending downward. This alignment typically signals a continuation of the downtrend until a clear reversal pattern emerges.
Weekly and monthly MACD indicators remain below zero, with no sign of bullish crossover, reinforcing the negative momentum. The absence of RSI extremes suggests the stock is not yet oversold, implying further room for decline before a technical rebound might occur.
Bollinger Bands’ bearish stance, with price near or below the lower band, indicates heightened volatility and selling pressure. The KST indicator’s bearish readings on weekly and monthly charts add further weight to the negative momentum narrative.
Dow Theory and OBV indicators currently show no clear trend or volume confirmation, which means that while price momentum is negative, volume patterns have not decisively confirmed a strong directional move. This lack of volume support may limit the strength of any short-term rallies.
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Investor Implications and Outlook
Given the current technical landscape, investors should approach STC with caution. The bearish momentum across multiple timeframes and indicators suggests that the stock may continue to face downward pressure in the near term. The lack of oversold RSI readings and absence of volume confirmation further imply that any rallies could be short-lived or lack conviction.
Long-term investors may consider the stock’s mixed historical returns, noting that while STC has outperformed the Sensex over three years, it has lagged over five and ten years. This inconsistency, combined with the current technical weakness, warrants a careful reassessment of portfolio exposure.
Traders relying on technical signals should monitor key support levels near the 52-week low of ₹103.00, as a breach could accelerate selling. Conversely, a sustained move above the 50-day moving average and a bullish MACD crossover would be required to signal a potential trend reversal.
Overall, the downgrade to Strong Sell by MarketsMOJO aligns with the technical evidence, suggesting that STC is currently a high-risk holding with limited upside potential.
Summary of Key Technical Metrics
- Current Price: ₹117.95 (down 2.44% on 2 Feb 2026)
- 52-Week High/Low: ₹168.50 / ₹103.00
- MACD: Weekly & Monthly Bearish
- RSI: Neutral (No Signal)
- Bollinger Bands: Weekly & Monthly Bearish
- Moving Averages: Daily Bearish (Price below 50 & 200 DMA)
- KST: Weekly & Monthly Bearish
- Dow Theory & OBV: No definitive trend
- Mojo Score: 3.0 (Strong Sell, downgraded from Sell)
- Market Cap Grade: 4
Investors should weigh these technical factors alongside fundamental analysis and market conditions before making investment decisions regarding State Trading Corporation of India Ltd.
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