Surge in Open Interest Signals Renewed Bullish Sentiment in Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Ltd.

Open Interest and Volume Dynamics

Data from 20 Feb 2026 reveals that ONGC’s open interest (OI) in derivatives rose sharply by 14,723 contracts, a 10.38% increase from the previous figure of 141,831 to 156,554. This notable expansion in OI is accompanied by a substantial volume of 126,358 contracts traded, indicating active participation from both institutional and retail investors. The futures value stands at ₹1,61,401.03 lakhs, while the options value is an overwhelming ₹63,751.52 crores, culminating in a total derivatives value of ₹1,68,966.79 lakhs.

Such a surge in OI, particularly when paired with rising volumes, often points to fresh positions being established rather than existing ones being squared off. This suggests that market participants are positioning themselves for a potential directional move in ONGC’s stock price.

Price Performance and Technical Strength

ONGC’s underlying stock price has been on an upward trajectory, hitting a new 52-week high of ₹280.80 on the day of the report. The stock outperformed its sector by 0.32% and the broader Sensex by 0.28%, registering a 0.89% gain compared to the sector’s 0.66% and Sensex’s 0.61% returns. Over the past two consecutive trading sessions, ONGC has delivered a cumulative return of 4.78%, underscoring strong bullish momentum.

Technically, ONGC is trading above all key moving averages – 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day – which is a classic indicator of sustained upward momentum. The stock’s delivery volume on 19 Feb surged to 1.74 crore shares, a 72.9% increase over the five-day average, signalling rising investor conviction and participation in the underlying equity.

Market Positioning and Potential Directional Bets

The increase in open interest alongside rising prices and volumes suggests that traders are predominantly taking long positions, anticipating further upside in ONGC’s shares. The futures and options market data corroborate this view, with the substantial options value indicating active hedging and speculative activity around the stock.

Given ONGC’s sector-leading dividend yield of 5.02% and its large-cap status with a market capitalisation of ₹3,48,599.54 crores, the stock remains attractive for both income-focused and growth-oriented investors. The liquidity profile, with a trade size capacity of ₹11.84 crores based on 2% of the five-day average traded value, ensures that institutional players can manoeuvre sizeable positions without significant market impact.

Mojo Score Upgrade Reflects Positive Outlook

MarketsMOJO has upgraded ONGC’s Mojo Grade from Hold to Buy as of 5 Feb 2026, reflecting improved fundamentals and technicals. The stock’s Mojo Score stands at a robust 75.0, signalling strong buy sentiment. This upgrade aligns with the recent surge in open interest and price action, reinforcing the view that ONGC is poised for further gains.

Additionally, the company’s Market Cap Grade is rated 1, indicating its status as a large-cap heavyweight within the oil sector. This rating supports the stock’s appeal as a stable yet growth-oriented investment option amid volatile energy markets.

Sector and Broader Market Context

The oil sector has been experiencing renewed investor interest driven by global supply-demand dynamics and geopolitical factors. ONGC, as a leading player in India’s oil industry, benefits from this tailwind. Its recent outperformance relative to the sector and Sensex highlights its resilience and capacity to capitalise on favourable market conditions.

Investors should note that while the open interest surge and price momentum are encouraging, the oil sector remains sensitive to external shocks such as crude price fluctuations and regulatory changes. Hence, monitoring derivatives activity alongside fundamental developments remains crucial for informed decision-making.

Investor Takeaway

For investors and traders, the recent surge in ONGC’s open interest combined with strong price action and rising volumes suggests a bullish market stance. The stock’s technical strength, dividend yield, and large-cap credentials make it a compelling candidate for both medium and long-term portfolios.

However, given the inherent volatility in the oil sector, it is prudent to keep a close watch on global crude trends and domestic policy developments. The derivatives market activity provides valuable clues on market sentiment and potential price trajectories, making it an essential tool for strategic positioning.

In summary, ONGC’s current market behaviour indicates increased confidence among investors, with fresh long positions being established in anticipation of further upside. This aligns well with the recent Mojo Grade upgrade and the stock’s outperformance relative to peers and benchmarks.

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