Technical Trend Overview: From Bearish to Mildly Bearish
Recent technical assessments indicate that Surya Roshni’s overall trend has transitioned from a clearly bearish stance to a mildly bearish one. This subtle improvement suggests that while downward pressure remains, the intensity has lessened, potentially signalling a stabilisation phase. The daily moving averages, a key gauge of short-term momentum, remain mildly bearish, indicating that the stock is still facing resistance but may be consolidating before a possible directional move.
MACD Signals: Divergent Weekly and Monthly Perspectives
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator presents a mixed scenario. On a weekly basis, the MACD remains bearish, underscoring persistent selling momentum in the near term. However, the monthly MACD has softened to mildly bearish, suggesting that longer-term selling pressure is easing. This divergence between weekly and monthly MACD readings highlights the importance of timeframe when interpreting momentum, with short-term traders remaining cautious while longer-term investors may find some comfort in the reduced bearishness.
RSI and Momentum Oscillators: Bullish Weekly, Neutral Monthly
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the weekly chart has turned bullish, signalling improving buying interest and momentum over the past several sessions. This is a positive development, as RSI readings above 50 typically indicate upward momentum. Conversely, the monthly RSI shows no clear signal, reflecting a neutral stance over the longer term. Complementing this, the Know Sure Thing (KST) oscillator is mildly bullish on the weekly timeframe but mildly bearish monthly, reinforcing the theme of short-term strength amid longer-term caution.
Bollinger Bands and Price Volatility
Bollinger Bands on both weekly and monthly charts remain mildly bearish, indicating that price volatility is still skewed towards the downside. The stock’s current price of ₹263.95 is well below its 52-week high of ₹358.30 but comfortably above the 52-week low of ₹205.30, suggesting a wide trading range. The bands’ mild bearishness implies that while the stock is not in a strong downtrend, it faces resistance near the upper band, limiting upside potential in the near term.
Volume and Dow Theory Insights
On-balance volume (OBV) readings show no clear trend on either weekly or monthly charts, indicating that volume is not decisively supporting either buying or selling pressure. Meanwhile, Dow Theory analysis reveals a mildly bullish weekly trend but no discernible monthly trend, further emphasising the mixed signals that investors must weigh carefully.
Price Performance Relative to Sensex
Surya Roshni’s price returns over various periods present a mixed but generally positive long-term outlook. Over the past week, the stock surged 7.93%, significantly outperforming the Sensex’s 2.94% gain. However, over the last month and year-to-date, the stock has declined by 3.72% and 4.11% respectively, underperforming the Sensex’s modest gains of 0.59% and 1.36%. Over longer horizons, Surya Roshni has delivered robust returns, with a 3-year gain of 55.87% versus Sensex’s 38.25%, a 5-year gain of 239.27% compared to Sensex’s 63.78%, and an impressive 10-year return of 644.57% against Sensex’s 249.97%. These figures highlight the stock’s strong fundamental growth over time despite recent volatility.
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Moving Averages and Daily Momentum
The daily moving averages for Surya Roshni remain mildly bearish, indicating that the stock’s short-term trend is still under pressure. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages have yet to show a bullish crossover, a technical event often viewed as a buy signal. This suggests that while the stock has gained 3.65% today, sustained upward momentum may require further confirmation from these key averages.
Market Capitalisation and Mojo Score Implications
Surya Roshni currently holds a market cap grade of 3, reflecting a mid-tier valuation within its sector. The company’s Mojo Score has recently declined to 35.0, with a corresponding downgrade from Hold to Sell on 17 Nov 2025. This downgrade reflects the technical and fundamental challenges the stock faces, despite pockets of short-term bullishness. Investors should consider this rating in conjunction with the mixed technical signals before making allocation decisions.
Sector Context: Iron & Steel Products
Operating within the Iron & Steel Products sector, Surya Roshni’s performance is influenced by broader commodity cycles and industrial demand. The sector has experienced volatility due to fluctuating raw material costs and global trade dynamics. Surya Roshni’s technical indicators mirror this uncertainty, with oscillators and trend analyses showing a blend of cautious optimism and lingering bearish pressures.
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Investor Takeaway: Navigating Mixed Signals
Surya Roshni’s technical landscape is characterised by a blend of cautious bullishness and persistent bearish undertones. The weekly RSI and KST oscillators suggest improving momentum, while the MACD and moving averages caution against premature optimism. The stock’s recent price appreciation of 3.65% and weekly return of 7.93% outperforming the Sensex indicate short-term strength, but monthly and year-to-date returns remain negative, underscoring ongoing challenges.
Investors should weigh these technical signals alongside the company’s fundamental downgrade and sector dynamics. The mildly bearish moving averages and Bollinger Bands suggest that resistance levels remain intact, and a confirmed breakout above key moving averages would be necessary to signal a sustained uptrend.
Long-term investors may find comfort in Surya Roshni’s impressive multi-year returns, which have significantly outpaced the Sensex over 3, 5, and 10-year periods. However, short-term traders should remain vigilant for confirmation of trend reversals before increasing exposure.
Conclusion
Surya Roshni Ltd’s technical parameters reveal a stock in transition, with momentum shifting from bearish to mildly bearish and mixed signals across key indicators. While short-term oscillators show signs of bullishness, longer-term trends remain cautious. The stock’s recent price gains and weekly outperformance of the Sensex offer some optimism, but investors should monitor moving averages and MACD signals closely for confirmation of a sustained trend change. Given the recent downgrade to a Sell rating and a Mojo Score of 35.0, a prudent approach combining technical analysis with fundamental evaluation is advisable.
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