Technical Trend Overview
The technical trend for TARC has transitioned from mildly bearish to bearish, signalling a more cautious stance among traders and investors. On a weekly basis, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains bearish, reinforcing the presence of downward momentum. Meanwhile, the monthly MACD reading is mildly bearish, indicating some moderation in the longer-term trend but still reflecting pressure on the stock price.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) presents a mixed picture. The weekly RSI does not currently generate a clear signal, suggesting a period of consolidation or indecision in the short term. Conversely, the monthly RSI is bullish, implying that over a longer horizon, the stock may be gaining some underlying strength despite recent volatility.
Moving Averages and Bollinger Bands
Daily moving averages for TARC are firmly bearish, indicating that the stock price is trading below key average price levels, which often acts as resistance. This aligns with the Bollinger Bands analysis, where the weekly bands are bearish, reflecting increased volatility and downward pressure. The monthly Bollinger Bands are mildly bearish, suggesting that while the stock is experiencing some selling pressure, the extent of price deviation from the mean is less severe over the longer term.
Additional Technical Indicators
The Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator, which helps identify momentum shifts, is bearish on a weekly basis and mildly bearish monthly. This further supports the view of prevailing downward momentum in the near term, with some moderation over extended periods. The Dow Theory, a classic market trend analysis tool, shows no definitive trend on either weekly or monthly charts, indicating a lack of clear directional conviction among market participants.
On-Balance Volume (OBV), which measures buying and selling pressure through volume flow, is mildly bearish weekly but bullish monthly. This divergence suggests that while short-term volume trends may be weak, longer-term accumulation could be taking place, potentially providing a foundation for future price support.
Price and Volatility Snapshot
As of the latest trading session, TARC’s stock price closed at ₹145.90, down from the previous close of ₹148.10, marking a daily decline of 1.49%. The day’s trading range was narrow, with a low of ₹145.90 and a high of ₹148.10. The stock’s 52-week high stands at ₹206.10, while the 52-week low is ₹103.45, highlighting a wide trading band over the past year.
Strong fundamentals, solid momentum, fair price – This Large Cap from the NBFC sector checks every box for our Top 1%. This should definitely be on your radar!
- - Complete fundamentals package
- - Technical momentum confirmed
- - Reasonable valuation entry
Comparative Returns Analysis
Examining TARC’s returns relative to the Sensex provides further context to its recent performance. Over the past week, TARC’s stock price recorded a marginal decline of 0.14%, outperforming the Sensex’s 0.40% fall. Over the last month, TARC posted a positive return of 6.96%, contrasting with the Sensex’s slight negative return of 0.30%.
However, year-to-date figures show a contrasting trend, with TARC’s stock down by 18.01% while the Sensex gained 8.69%. Over the last year, TARC’s return was negative at 20.88%, compared to the Sensex’s positive 7.21%. Despite these recent setbacks, the longer-term performance remains robust, with TARC delivering a 226.03% return over three years and an impressive 631.33% over five years, significantly outpacing the Sensex’s 37.41% and 80.85% returns respectively.
Sector and Industry Context
Operating within the Realty sector, TARC’s technical and price movements must be viewed against broader industry trends. The Realty sector often experiences cyclical volatility influenced by macroeconomic factors such as interest rates, government policies, and demand-supply dynamics in real estate markets. The current technical signals suggest that TARC is navigating a phase of consolidation with mixed momentum cues, which may reflect sector-wide uncertainties as well as company-specific developments.
Implications for Investors
The combination of bearish daily moving averages and weekly MACD alongside a bullish monthly RSI and OBV points to a complex technical landscape. Short-term traders may interpret the prevailing bearish signals as cautionary, while longer-term investors might find the monthly bullish indicators suggestive of potential underlying strength. The absence of a clear Dow Theory trend further emphasises the need for careful monitoring of price action and volume in the coming weeks.
TARC or something better? Our SwitchER feature analyzes this small-cap Realty stock and recommends superior alternatives based on fundamentals, momentum, and value!
- - SwitchER analysis complete
- - Superior alternatives found
- - Multi-parameter evaluation
Summary and Outlook
TARC’s recent technical parameter changes reflect a shift towards a more bearish short-term outlook, tempered by some longer-term bullish signals. The stock’s current price near ₹145.90 remains well below its 52-week high, indicating room for price movement in either direction depending on market catalysts and sector developments.
Investors should consider the mixed signals from MACD, RSI, moving averages, and volume indicators when assessing TARC’s potential. The interplay of these factors suggests that while caution is warranted in the near term, the stock’s longer-term fundamentals and historical performance may offer opportunities for those with a more extended investment horizon.
Continued observation of technical indicators alongside fundamental developments will be essential to gauge the stock’s trajectory in the evolving Realty market landscape.
Only Rs. 14,999 - Get MojoOne + Stock of the Week for 1 Year PLUS 18 Months FREE! Claim Your Free Year →
