Tata Power Company Ltd Faces Bearish Momentum Amid Technical Downturn

Technical Trend Shift and Momentum Analysis

Over the past week, Tata Power’s share price has declined by 2.03%, underperforming the Sensex’s 0.99% drop. The one-month return is down 4.06%, significantly lagging the Sensex’s 1.20% gain. Year-to-date, the stock has fallen 4.60%, contrasting sharply with the Sensex’s robust 8.36% advance. This divergence highlights the stock’s recent weakness despite its historically strong performance over longer horizons, including a 394.19% return over five years and an impressive 452.95% gain over ten years.

Technically, the trend has deteriorated from mildly bearish to outright bearish. The daily moving averages confirm this shift, with the stock trading below key averages, signalling sustained selling pressure. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is bearish on the weekly chart and mildly bearish on the monthly, indicating that momentum is weakening but not yet at extreme levels. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains neutral on both weekly and monthly timeframes, suggesting no immediate oversold or overbought conditions, but the lack of positive signals adds to the cautious outlook.

Volatility and Trend Indicators

Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart show sideways movement, reflecting a period of consolidation, while the monthly bands have turned bearish, implying increased volatility with a downward bias. The Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator aligns with this view, bearish on the weekly and mildly bearish on the monthly, reinforcing the momentum loss. Meanwhile, Dow Theory presents a mixed picture: mildly bullish on the weekly but mildly bearish on the monthly, indicating short-term resilience amid longer-term caution.

On-balance volume (OBV) readings are mildly bullish weekly but mildly bearish monthly, suggesting that while some buying interest persists in the short term, the broader trend is weakening. This mixed volume pattern underscores the uncertainty among investors and the potential for further downside if selling intensifies.

Price Levels and Market Capitalisation

Tata Power’s current price stands at ₹374.35, down from the previous close of ₹376.30. The stock’s 52-week high is ₹416.70, while the low is ₹326.25, placing the current price closer to the lower end of its annual range. This proximity to the 52-week low adds to the bearish sentiment, as the stock struggles to regain upward momentum. The company’s market cap grade remains at 1, reflecting its large-cap status but also signalling limited upside potential in the near term given the technical backdrop.

Mojo Score and Grade Implications

The company’s mojo score has declined to 26.0, resulting in a downgrade from Sell to Strong Sell as of 30 December 2025. This reflects the accumulation of bearish technical signals and the deteriorating price momentum. The downgrade is significant given the previous rating was already cautious, signalling that investors should exercise heightened vigilance. The strong sell rating is supported by the convergence of multiple technical indicators pointing to further downside risk.

Long-Term Performance Versus Recent Weakness

Despite the current technical challenges, Tata Power’s long-term returns remain impressive. Over three years, the stock has delivered an 80.24% return, more than double the Sensex’s 39.17%. Over five and ten years, the outperformance is even more pronounced, with returns of 394.19% and 452.95% respectively, compared to the Sensex’s 77.34% and 226.18%. This disparity suggests that while the stock is facing short- to medium-term headwinds, its underlying fundamentals and growth trajectory have historically rewarded patient investors.

Sector and Industry Context

Operating within the power sector, Tata Power is subject to regulatory, commodity price, and demand fluctuations that can impact its share price volatility. The sector itself has seen mixed technical signals, with some peers showing resilience while others face similar momentum challenges. Investors should consider the broader power sector dynamics alongside Tata Power’s individual technical profile when making investment decisions.

Investor Takeaway and Outlook

For investors, the current technical landscape suggests caution. The bearish signals across daily, weekly, and monthly charts indicate that Tata Power’s share price may face further pressure in the near term. The absence of strong RSI signals means the stock is not yet oversold, leaving room for additional declines. The mixed volume and Dow Theory readings imply that short-term rallies may occur but are unlikely to reverse the broader bearish trend without significant fundamental catalysts.

Given the downgrade to Strong Sell and the low mojo score, investors should consider risk management strategies, including trimming exposure or seeking alternative investments within the power sector or other sectors with more favourable technical profiles. The stock’s long-term outperformance remains a positive backdrop, but the current technical deterioration warrants a prudent approach.

Summary of Technical Indicators

• MACD: Weekly Bearish, Monthly Mildly Bearish


• RSI: No signal on Weekly and Monthly


• Bollinger Bands: Weekly Sideways, Monthly Bearish


• Moving Averages: Daily Bearish


• KST: Weekly Bearish, Monthly Mildly Bearish


• Dow Theory: Weekly Mildly Bullish, Monthly Mildly Bearish


• OBV: Weekly Mildly Bullish, Monthly Mildly Bearish

In conclusion, Tata Power Company Ltd’s technical parameters have shifted decisively towards a bearish stance, reflecting weakening price momentum and increased downside risk. While the company’s long-term fundamentals and returns remain strong, the current technical environment advises caution for investors seeking near-term gains.

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