TCPL Packaging Ltd. Technical Momentum Shifts Amid Bearish Signals

Technical Trend Overview

Recent analysis reveals that TCPL Packaging’s technical trend has deteriorated from mildly bearish to outright bearish. This shift is underscored by the daily moving averages, which currently indicate a bearish stance, reflecting downward price pressure in the short term. The stock closed at ₹2,854.30 on 13 Feb 2026, down 2.57% from the previous close of ₹2,929.50, with a daily trading range between ₹2,854.30 and ₹2,937.05.

On a weekly and monthly basis, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains bearish and mildly bearish respectively, signalling that momentum is weakening. The weekly MACD’s bearish reading suggests that the stock’s recent price action is dominated by sellers, while the monthly mildly bearish stance indicates a more gradual loss of upward momentum over a longer horizon.

Momentum Oscillators and Volatility Indicators

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on both weekly and monthly charts currently shows no clear signal, hovering in a neutral zone. This suggests that while the stock is not yet oversold or overbought, the absence of a strong RSI signal adds to the uncertainty surrounding the stock’s immediate direction.

Bollinger Bands on weekly and monthly timeframes are mildly bearish, indicating that price volatility is skewed towards the downside. The stock price is closer to the lower band, which often signals increased selling pressure but can also precede a potential bounce if the price becomes oversold.

Volume and Trend Confirmation

On-Balance Volume (OBV) analysis shows no clear trend on the weekly chart but a mildly bearish trend on the monthly chart. This divergence suggests that while short-term volume does not confirm a strong directional move, longer-term volume patterns are consistent with the weakening price momentum. The KST (Know Sure Thing) indicator aligns with this view, showing bearish momentum on the weekly scale and mildly bearish on the monthly scale.

Interestingly, the Dow Theory readings present a mixed picture: weekly data is mildly bullish, hinting at some underlying strength in the short term, whereas monthly data remains mildly bearish, reinforcing the longer-term caution.

Price Performance Relative to Sensex

Despite the recent technical weakness, TCPL Packaging’s long-term returns remain impressive when compared to the benchmark Sensex. Over the past 10 years, the stock has delivered a cumulative return of 516.81%, nearly doubling the Sensex’s 264.02% gain. Over five years, the stock’s return of 645.93% vastly outpaces the Sensex’s 62.34%, highlighting the company’s strong growth trajectory over the medium to long term.

However, more recent returns have been less favourable. Year-to-date, TCPL Packaging has declined by 5.46%, compared to a 1.81% drop in the Sensex. Over the past year, the stock has fallen 11.52%, while the Sensex gained 9.85%. This divergence emphasises the current technical challenges facing the stock, despite its solid historical performance.

Valuation and Market Capitalisation Context

TCPL Packaging currently holds a Mojo Score of 50.0 with a Mojo Grade of Hold, upgraded from Sell on 10 Feb 2026. The company’s market cap grade stands at 3, indicating a mid-tier market capitalisation within its sector. This upgrade reflects a cautious optimism amid the mixed technical signals, suggesting that while the stock is not yet a strong buy, it is no longer a sell either.

Investors should note that the packaging sector itself is facing headwinds, with broader industry trends influencing stock performance. TCPL’s technical deterioration aligns with sector-wide pressures, although its long-term fundamentals remain intact.

Moving Averages and Short-Term Outlook

The daily moving averages are firmly bearish, signalling that the stock’s short-term trend is downward. This is corroborated by the stock’s inability to sustain levels above ₹2,900 in recent sessions. The 52-week high of ₹4,909.55 remains a distant target, while the 52-week low of ₹2,552.35 provides a potential support zone if selling intensifies.

Traders should watch for any reversal signals, particularly if the RSI moves into oversold territory or if the price finds support near the lower Bollinger Band. Until then, the technical outlook remains cautious, with a bias towards further downside or consolidation.

Conclusion: Balanced View for Investors

TCPL Packaging Ltd. currently presents a complex technical picture. While the stock’s long-term returns and fundamental positioning remain strong, the recent shift to bearish technical indicators suggests caution in the near term. The downgrade in technical trend to bearish, combined with bearish MACD and moving averages, points to potential further downside or sideways movement before any meaningful recovery.

Investors should monitor key technical levels, including the ₹2,850 support zone and the behaviour of momentum oscillators such as RSI and MACD. A sustained break below recent lows could signal deeper weakness, whereas any signs of stabilisation or bullish divergence may offer entry points for those with a longer-term horizon.

Given the current Mojo Grade of Hold, TCPL Packaging is best approached with a balanced strategy, weighing its historical outperformance against the present technical caution. Active monitoring of technical signals and sector developments will be essential for making informed decisions in the coming weeks.

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