Tejas Networks Ltd Technical Momentum Shifts Amid Bearish Outlook

Technical Trend Overview and Momentum Analysis

Recent technical assessments reveal that Tejas Networks' overall trend has transitioned from a firmly bearish stance to a mildly bearish one. This subtle improvement, however, masks a broader context of persistent weakness. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains bearish on both weekly and monthly charts, signalling that downward momentum is still dominant over medium and longer terms. Conversely, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has improved to bullish territory on weekly and monthly timeframes, suggesting some short-term buying interest and potential for a corrective bounce.

The daily moving averages continue to exert bearish pressure, with the current price of ₹455.90 hovering just above the 52-week low of ₹440.05 but far below the 52-week high of ₹1,220.00. This wide trading range highlights the stock’s volatility and the significant correction it has undergone over the past year.

Bollinger Bands and KST Indicator Insights

Bollinger Bands analysis presents a mildly bearish outlook on the weekly scale and a more pronounced bearish stance monthly, indicating that price volatility remains skewed towards downside risk. The KST (Know Sure Thing) momentum oscillator aligns with this view, showing bearish signals on both weekly and monthly charts, reinforcing the notion that the stock’s momentum is yet to decisively turn positive.

Volume and Dow Theory Signals

On-Balance Volume (OBV) readings provide a mixed picture: no clear trend on the weekly scale but a bullish indication monthly. This divergence suggests that while recent trading volumes have not decisively supported a trend shift, longer-term accumulation may be underway. Dow Theory assessments add further nuance, with a mildly bullish weekly signal contrasting with a mildly bearish monthly outlook. This split underscores the stock’s current technical uncertainty and the need for cautious interpretation by investors.

Price Performance Relative to Sensex

Tejas Networks’ price performance starkly contrasts with the broader market benchmark, the Sensex. Over the past week, the stock posted a modest gain of 0.51%, outperforming the Sensex’s decline of 1.02%. However, over the one-month horizon, the stock fell 7.73%, significantly underperforming the Sensex’s 1.18% loss. Year-to-date and one-year returns are particularly concerning, with Tejas Networks down approximately 61.5% and 61.99% respectively, while the Sensex has delivered positive returns of 8.39% and 7.62% over the same periods.

Longer-term comparisons show a mixed picture: a 3-year return of -19.98% versus Sensex’s 38.54%, but a strong 5-year outperformance with a 265.45% gain compared to Sensex’s 77.88%. This suggests that while the stock has faced severe headwinds recently, it has demonstrated robust growth over a longer horizon, albeit with heightened volatility.

Mojo Score and Market Capitalisation Context

Tejas Networks currently holds a Mojo Score of 6.0, reflecting a strong sell recommendation, an upgrade in severity from its previous sell grade as of 20 Oct 2025. This downgrade signals increased caution from analysts and technical evaluators. The company’s market capitalisation grade stands at 3, indicating a mid-tier valuation relative to its peers in the telecom equipment and accessories sector.

Despite the recent daily price increase to ₹455.90 from a previous close of ₹448.80, the stock remains vulnerable given the prevailing bearish technical indicators and the significant gap from its 52-week high. Investors should weigh these factors carefully against the backdrop of sectoral trends and broader market conditions.

Moving Averages and Daily Price Action

Daily moving averages continue to exert downward pressure, with the stock trading below key short- and medium-term averages. Today’s intraday high of ₹465.00 and low of ₹445.45 reflect a narrow trading range, suggesting consolidation but limited upward momentum. The persistent bearish signals from moving averages imply that any rallies may be met with resistance, and a sustained recovery will require a decisive break above these technical barriers.

Investor Implications and Outlook

Given the mixed technical signals, investors should approach Tejas Networks with caution. The bullish RSI readings on weekly and monthly charts offer some hope of a short-term rebound, but the dominant bearish MACD, KST, and moving averages caution against aggressive positioning. The divergence between volume-based indicators and price momentum further complicates the outlook, indicating that any recovery may be tentative and subject to volatility.

Long-term investors may find value in the stock’s historical outperformance over five years, but the recent steep declines and technical deterioration suggest that a clear turnaround is yet to materialise. Monitoring key support levels near ₹440 and resistance around ₹465-470 will be critical in assessing the stock’s next directional move.

Conclusion: Navigating a Complex Technical Landscape

Tejas Networks Ltd’s technical profile presents a nuanced picture of a stock caught between lingering bearish momentum and emerging bullish signals. While the weekly and monthly RSI improvements hint at potential short-term strength, the prevailing bearish MACD, KST, and moving averages caution investors about the sustainability of any rally. The stock’s significant underperformance relative to the Sensex over recent months and years further emphasises the challenges ahead.

For investors, the key will be to monitor technical developments closely, particularly the interplay of volume trends and price action around critical support and resistance levels. Until a clear and sustained shift in momentum is confirmed, a cautious stance remains advisable.

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