TGV Sraac Ltd Faces Bearish Momentum Amid Mixed Technical Signals

Technical Trend Overview and Price Movement

As of 25 Feb 2026, TGV Sraac Ltd’s stock price closed at ₹87.15, down 0.60% from the previous close of ₹87.68. The intraday range was relatively narrow, with a low of ₹86.20 and a high of ₹87.94, indicating limited volatility. The stock remains significantly below its 52-week high of ₹142.25, while hovering just above its 52-week low of ₹84.20, signalling a prolonged period of price consolidation and weakness.

The technical trend has shifted from mildly bearish to outright bearish, reflecting a deterioration in momentum. This is corroborated by the daily moving averages, which currently maintain a bearish alignment, suggesting that short-term price action remains under pressure. The stock’s performance relative to the broader market also paints a challenging picture: over the past year, TGV Sraac has declined by 10.08%, contrasting sharply with the Sensex’s 10.44% gain over the same period.

MACD and Momentum Indicators

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator presents a nuanced view. On a weekly basis, the MACD remains bearish, signalling that downward momentum is intact in the medium term. The monthly MACD, however, is only mildly bearish, indicating that while the longer-term trend is negative, it is not yet decisively so. This divergence between weekly and monthly MACD readings suggests that the stock may be in a transitional phase, with potential for either further downside or a stabilisation if positive catalysts emerge.

Complementing this, the Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator shows bearish momentum on the weekly chart but turns bullish on the monthly timeframe. This mixed signal further emphasises the stock’s current indecision, with short-term pressures counterbalanced by some longer-term positive momentum.

RSI and Overbought/Oversold Conditions

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the weekly chart is bullish, indicating that the stock is not currently oversold and may have some underlying strength or potential for a short-term bounce. Conversely, the monthly RSI offers no clear signal, reflecting a neutral stance over the longer term. This disparity between weekly and monthly RSI readings suggests that while short-term momentum may be improving, the broader trend remains uncertain.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands provide additional insight into volatility and price extremes. On a weekly basis, the bands indicate a mildly bearish outlook, with the stock price gravitating towards the lower band, signalling selling pressure. The monthly Bollinger Bands are more decisively bearish, reinforcing the view that the stock is under sustained downward pressure over the longer term. This contraction near the lower bands often precedes either a continuation of the downtrend or a volatility-driven reversal, making it a critical area for investors to monitor.

Moving Averages and Daily Price Action

The daily moving averages remain bearish, with the stock trading below its key short-term averages. This alignment typically signals continued selling pressure and a lack of immediate buying interest. The failure to reclaim these averages suggests that the bears retain control in the near term. Investors should watch for any crossover events or sustained moves above these averages as potential early signs of trend reversal.

Volume and Dow Theory Signals

Volume-based indicators such as On-Balance Volume (OBV) currently do not provide a clear directional signal on either weekly or monthly charts, indicating subdued trading interest or a lack of conviction among market participants. Meanwhile, Dow Theory assessments show no clear trend on the weekly timeframe and a mildly bearish stance on the monthly scale, reinforcing the cautious outlook.

Comparative Performance and Long-Term Returns

Examining TGV Sraac’s returns relative to the Sensex reveals a mixed but generally underwhelming performance in recent years. Over the past week, the stock declined by 0.21%, outperforming the Sensex’s 1.47% drop. However, over one month and year-to-date periods, the stock has underperformed significantly, with losses of 4.23% and 21.77% respectively, compared to modest gains in the Sensex. Over longer horizons, the stock’s five- and ten-year returns remain impressive at 236.49% and 490.85%, far exceeding the Sensex’s 61.92% and 256.13% gains, highlighting its historical growth potential despite recent setbacks.

Mojo Score and Analyst Ratings

TGV Sraac currently holds a Mojo Score of 40.0, categorised as a Sell rating, a downgrade from its previous Hold grade as of 20 Jan 2026. This reflects a cautious stance from MarketsMOJO analysts, who have factored in the deteriorating technical indicators and recent price weakness. The company’s Market Cap Grade stands at 4, indicating a relatively modest market capitalisation within its sector. The downgrade signals that investors should exercise prudence and consider the risks before initiating or adding to positions.

Investor Takeaway and Outlook

In summary, TGV Sraac Ltd is navigating a challenging technical landscape marked by bearish momentum across multiple timeframes and indicators. While some weekly signals such as RSI and KST hint at potential short-term strength, the prevailing trend remains negative, supported by bearish MACD, moving averages, and Bollinger Bands on monthly charts. The stock’s underperformance relative to the Sensex over recent months further underscores the cautious environment.

Investors should closely monitor key technical levels, particularly the daily moving averages and Bollinger Band boundaries, for signs of a reversal or further deterioration. Given the current Mojo Grade downgrade and mixed technical signals, a conservative approach is advisable, with a focus on risk management and potential alternative opportunities within the Commodity Chemicals sector.

Looking Ahead

Market participants should watch for any fundamental developments or sectoral shifts that could influence TGV Sraac’s trajectory. Meanwhile, the technical indicators suggest that the stock is in a consolidation phase with a bearish bias, requiring confirmation before any meaningful recovery can be anticipated.

Limited Period Only. Start at Rs. 9,999 - Get MojoOne for 1 Year + 3 Months FREE (60% Off) Get 71% Off →