The Investment Trust of India Ltd Faces Bearish Momentum Amid Technical Downturn

Price Movement and Market Context

The stock closed at ₹99.50 on 17 February 2026, down 2.12% from the previous close of ₹101.65. Intraday trading saw a narrow range between ₹99.50 and ₹100.00, reflecting subdued volatility. The 52-week high remains at ₹184.00, while the 52-week low is ₹93.00, indicating the stock is trading closer to its lower band, a sign of sustained weakness over the past year.

Comparatively, The Investment Trust of India Ltd has underperformed the Sensex significantly over multiple time horizons. Year-to-date, the stock has declined by 16.74%, while the Sensex has fallen by a more modest 2.28%. Over the past year, the stock’s return is a steep negative 32.68%, contrasting with the Sensex’s positive 9.66%. Even over a 10-year horizon, the stock has lost 23.40%, whereas the Sensex has surged 259.08%, underscoring the stock’s prolonged underperformance within the NBFC sector.

Technical Trend Shift: From Mildly Bearish to Bearish

Recent technical analysis reveals a clear shift in trend sentiment. The overall technical trend has moved from mildly bearish to outright bearish, signalling increased downside risk. This shift is corroborated by multiple technical indicators across different time frames.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains bearish on both weekly and monthly charts, indicating that momentum is firmly tilted towards sellers. The MACD histogram continues to show negative values, and the MACD line remains below the signal line, confirming the downward momentum.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) presents a mixed picture. On the weekly chart, RSI is bullish, suggesting some short-term buying interest or oversold conditions that could prompt a minor bounce. However, the monthly RSI shows no clear signal, indicating a lack of sustained momentum to reverse the prevailing downtrend.

Bollinger Bands and Moving Averages Confirm Bearish Bias

Bollinger Bands on both weekly and monthly charts are bearish, with the stock price hugging the lower band. This suggests increased selling pressure and a lack of volatility expansion to the upside. The narrowing of bands also indicates a potential squeeze, but the current direction favours downside breakout risk.

Daily moving averages reinforce this bearish outlook. The stock price remains below key moving averages such as the 50-day and 200-day, which act as resistance levels. The downward sloping moving averages confirm the persistence of the negative trend and discourage bullish sentiment among traders.

Additional Technical Indicators: KST, Dow Theory, and OBV

The Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator is bearish on both weekly and monthly timeframes, signalling that momentum is weakening and the stock is likely to continue its downward trajectory. Dow Theory analysis shows no clear trend on the weekly chart but mildly bearish conditions on the monthly chart, indicating that the broader market forces are not supporting a recovery at this stage.

On the volume front, the On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator shows no trend on the weekly chart but a bullish signal on the monthly chart. This divergence suggests that while short-term volume does not confirm a trend, longer-term accumulation might be occurring. However, this is insufficient to offset the prevailing bearish technical signals.

Mojo Score and Grade Reflect Technical Weakness

MarketsMOJO has downgraded The Investment Trust of India Ltd’s mojo grade from Sell to Strong Sell as of 31 July 2025, reflecting the deteriorating technical and fundamental outlook. The current mojo score stands at a low 23.0, signalling weak momentum and poor quality grades. The market capitalisation grade is 4, indicating a relatively small market cap compared to peers, which may contribute to higher volatility and risk.

Given the combination of bearish technical indicators and underwhelming price performance, the stock is currently positioned as a high-risk investment within the NBFC sector. Investors should exercise caution and consider the broader market context before initiating or adding to positions.

Sector and Market Comparison

The NBFC sector has faced headwinds recently due to tightening liquidity conditions and regulatory scrutiny. The Investment Trust of India Ltd’s underperformance relative to the Sensex and sector peers highlights company-specific challenges alongside sector-wide pressures. While the Sensex has managed modest gains over the past year, this stock’s 32.68% decline over the same period underscores its vulnerability.

Investor Takeaway and Outlook

In summary, The Investment Trust of India Ltd is exhibiting a clear bearish momentum shift, confirmed by multiple technical indicators including MACD, Bollinger Bands, moving averages, and KST. The weekly RSI’s bullish signal offers only a short-term counterpoint and does not negate the broader negative trend. The stock’s proximity to its 52-week low and sustained underperformance relative to the Sensex further reinforce the cautious stance.

Investors should weigh these technical signals alongside fundamental factors and sector dynamics. The downgrade to a Strong Sell mojo grade by MarketsMOJO reflects the consensus view of elevated risk and limited near-term upside. Those holding the stock may consider risk mitigation strategies, while prospective buyers should seek confirmation of trend reversal before committing capital.

Given the current technical landscape, a conservative approach is advisable until clear signs of momentum improvement emerge, such as a MACD crossover to bullish, RSI stabilisation above 50 on monthly charts, or price recovery above key moving averages.

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