Price Movement and Market Context
Thermax’s stock closed at ₹3,013.05 on 31 Dec 2025, up slightly by 0.21% from the previous close of ₹3,006.75. The intraday range saw a low of ₹2,945.00 and a high of ₹3,029.55, indicating moderate volatility. The stock remains well below its 52-week high of ₹4,439.45 but comfortably above its 52-week low of ₹2,744.20, suggesting a consolidation phase after a significant downtrend.
Comparatively, the Sensex has delivered a positive return of 8.36% year-to-date (YTD), while Thermax has declined by 26.00% over the same period. This underperformance is also reflected in the one-year return, where Thermax is down 24.82% against Sensex’s 8.21%. However, over longer horizons, the stock has outperformed the benchmark, with a 5-year return of 231.85% compared to Sensex’s 77.34%, and a 10-year return of 230.22% versus Sensex’s 226.18%. This contrast highlights the stock’s cyclical nature and the recent challenges it faces.
Technical Trend Analysis: Mixed Signals
The technical trend for Thermax has shifted from bearish to mildly bearish, reflecting a tentative improvement but still signalling caution. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator presents a split view: the weekly MACD is mildly bullish, suggesting some short-term upward momentum, while the monthly MACD remains bearish, indicating longer-term downward pressure.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) adds further nuance. On a weekly basis, the RSI shows no clear signal, hovering in a neutral zone, whereas the monthly RSI is bullish, implying that the stock may be gaining strength over a longer timeframe. This divergence between weekly and monthly RSI readings suggests that short-term momentum is uncertain, but there could be a foundation for recovery if monthly trends persist.
Bollinger Bands and Moving Averages
Bollinger Bands on both weekly and monthly charts remain mildly bearish, indicating that price volatility is contained but with a downward bias. The stock price is likely trading near the lower band, which often signals oversold conditions but also warns of potential further declines if the trend continues.
Daily moving averages reinforce this cautious stance, showing a mildly bearish trend. The stock price is currently below key moving averages, which typically act as resistance levels. Until the price decisively breaks above these averages, the bearish momentum may persist.
From struggle to strength! This Small Cap from Textile - Machinery is showing early turnaround signals that look promising. Position yourself now for explosive growth potential ahead!
- - Early turnaround signals
- - Explosive growth potential
- - Textile - Machinery recovery play
Position for Explosive Growth →
Additional Technical Indicators: KST, Dow Theory, and OBV
The Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator remains bearish on both weekly and monthly charts, signalling that momentum is still predominantly negative. This aligns with the monthly MACD and Bollinger Bands, reinforcing the longer-term downtrend.
Dow Theory readings offer a more balanced perspective. Weekly data is mildly bullish, suggesting some short-term optimism, but monthly readings are mildly bearish, consistent with other monthly indicators. This split underscores the importance of monitoring the stock over different time horizons.
On-Balance Volume (OBV) analysis shows no clear trend on the weekly chart and a mildly bearish trend monthly. This suggests that volume is not strongly supporting price advances, which is a cautionary sign for investors looking for sustained rallies.
Mojo Score and Grade Downgrade
Reflecting these mixed technical signals and recent price action, Thermax’s Mojo Score stands at 35.0, categorised as a Sell. This represents a downgrade from the previous Hold rating on 4 August 2025. The Market Cap Grade remains low at 2, indicating limited market capitalisation strength relative to peers. The downgrade signals that the stock currently lacks sufficient momentum and quality metrics to warrant a more positive outlook.
Investment Implications and Outlook
Thermax’s technical landscape is characterised by a cautious transition phase. While weekly indicators hint at mild bullishness, monthly signals remain predominantly bearish, suggesting that any recovery may be tentative and subject to volatility. The stock’s underperformance relative to the Sensex over the past year and YTD period further emphasises the challenges it faces in regaining investor confidence.
Investors should closely monitor key technical levels, particularly the moving averages and Bollinger Bands, for signs of a sustained breakout or breakdown. The divergence between short-term and long-term indicators warrants a measured approach, favouring those with a higher risk tolerance and a longer investment horizon.
Considering Thermax Ltd.? Wait! SwitchER has found potentially better options in Heavy Electrical Equipment and beyond. Compare this mid-cap with top-rated alternatives now!
- - Better options discovered
- - Heavy Electrical Equipment + beyond scope
- - Top-rated alternatives ready
Long-Term Performance Context
Despite recent setbacks, Thermax’s long-term performance remains impressive. The stock has delivered a 5-year return of 231.85%, significantly outperforming the Sensex’s 77.34% over the same period. Similarly, the 10-year return of 230.22% closely matches the Sensex’s 226.18%, underscoring the company’s ability to generate substantial wealth over extended periods.
This historical strength may provide some comfort to investors, but the current technical and fundamental challenges suggest that patience and careful analysis are required before committing fresh capital.
Summary
Thermax Ltd. is navigating a complex technical environment with mixed momentum signals. While weekly indicators show tentative bullishness, monthly trends remain bearish, reflecting ongoing headwinds. The downgrade to a Sell Mojo Grade and a modest Mojo Score of 35.0 reinforce the need for caution. Investors should weigh the stock’s long-term outperformance against its recent struggles and monitor technical developments closely for clearer directional cues.
Only Rs. 9,999 - Get MojoOne + Stock of the Week for 1 Year (MRP = Rs. 34,999) Start Today
