Thomas Cook (India) Ltd Sees Mixed Technical Signals Amid Price Momentum Shift

Price Momentum and Recent Market Performance

Thomas Cook (India) Ltd’s stock price closed at ₹149.50 on 1 Jan 2026, up from the previous close of ₹139.70, marking a significant intraday gain. The stock’s 52-week high stands at ₹202.10, while the low is ₹118.10, indicating a wide trading range over the past year. This volatility is mirrored in the stock’s returns relative to the broader Sensex index. Over the past week, Thomas Cook outperformed the Sensex with a 4.44% gain compared to the index’s marginal decline of 0.22%. However, the year-to-date and one-year returns remain negative at -23.55%, contrasting sharply with the Sensex’s positive 9.06% return over the same period.

Technical Trend Shift: From Bearish to Mildly Bearish

The technical trend for Thomas Cook has shifted from a clear bearish stance to a more nuanced mildly bearish position. This subtle change suggests that while downward pressure remains, there are emerging signs of potential stabilisation or limited recovery. The daily moving averages continue to signal bearish momentum, indicating that the stock price remains below key average levels, which typically acts as resistance to upward movement.

MACD and RSI Analysis

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator presents a mixed picture. On a weekly basis, the MACD remains bearish, signalling that the short-term momentum is still lagging. However, the monthly MACD has improved to mildly bearish, hinting at a possible easing of downward momentum over a longer timeframe. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum oscillator, currently shows no clear signal on both weekly and monthly charts, suggesting that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold. This neutral RSI reading implies that the stock could be poised for a directional move but lacks a definitive momentum bias at present.

Bollinger Bands and Moving Averages

Bollinger Bands, which measure volatility and potential price extremes, indicate a mildly bearish stance on both weekly and monthly charts. The stock price is hovering near the lower band, which often acts as a support level but also signals caution as it may reflect increased selling pressure. The daily moving averages reinforce this bearish outlook, with the stock trading below its short- and medium-term averages, suggesting that the bears currently hold sway in the near term.

KST, Dow Theory and OBV Indicators

The Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator, which aggregates multiple rate-of-change measures, remains bearish on a weekly basis but has improved to mildly bearish monthly, aligning with the MACD’s longer-term outlook. Dow Theory analysis presents a more complex scenario: weekly signals are mildly bullish, suggesting some short-term optimism, while monthly signals remain mildly bearish, reflecting caution over the medium term. On balance, these mixed signals indicate a market in flux, with neither bulls nor bears firmly in control.

On-Balance Volume (OBV), a volume-based indicator that helps confirm price trends, shows mildly bullish readings weekly and bullish readings monthly. This divergence between price and volume suggests that accumulation may be occurring despite the price weakness, potentially signalling a foundation for future upward moves if confirmed by price action.

Mojo Score and Market Capitalisation Grade

Thomas Cook’s current Mojo Score stands at 40.0, categorised as a Sell rating, a downgrade from the previous Hold grade assigned on 3 Nov 2025. This downgrade reflects the deteriorating technical and fundamental outlook. The company’s market capitalisation grade is 3, indicating a mid-tier market cap relative to its peers in the Tour and Travel Related Services sector. This positioning suggests moderate liquidity and investor interest but also highlights the need for stronger catalysts to drive a sustained recovery.

Long-Term Performance Context

Examining Thomas Cook’s returns over longer horizons reveals a mixed performance. While the stock has delivered impressive gains over three and five years—110.12% and 217.41% respectively—these returns significantly outperform the Sensex benchmarks of 40.07% and 78.47% over the same periods. However, the 10-year return is negative at -26.48%, contrasting with the Sensex’s robust 226.30% gain, underscoring the company’s cyclical challenges and sector-specific headwinds. This long-term perspective is crucial for investors weighing the stock’s recovery potential against its historical volatility.

Investor Takeaway and Outlook

Thomas Cook (India) Ltd’s technical indicators collectively paint a picture of cautious optimism tempered by persistent bearish pressures. The recent price momentum shift, highlighted by a strong intraday gain and weekly outperformance against the Sensex, is encouraging. Yet, the predominance of bearish signals in moving averages and MACD, coupled with neutral RSI readings, suggests that the stock remains vulnerable to volatility and may require confirmation of a sustained uptrend before attracting broader investor confidence.

Volume-based indicators such as OBV provide a silver lining, indicating potential accumulation that could precede a more definitive recovery. However, the downgrade in Mojo Grade to Sell reflects underlying concerns about the company’s near-term fundamentals and sector challenges. Investors should closely monitor key technical levels, particularly the 52-week low of ₹118.10 and the resistance near the 52-week high of ₹202.10, to gauge the stock’s directional bias.

Given the mixed signals, a prudent approach would be to await clearer confirmation from technical indicators, such as a bullish crossover in MACD or a sustained RSI move above 50, before committing to a long position. Meanwhile, the stock’s mid-tier market cap and sector dynamics warrant careful consideration of alternative investment opportunities within the travel and tourism space.

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