TIL Ltd Shares Plunge Amid Bearish Technical Momentum and Downgrade

Technical Trend Transition: From Mildly Bearish to Bearish

The technical trend for TIL Ltd has shifted from mildly bearish to outright bearish, reflecting increased selling pressure and weakening price momentum. The daily moving averages have turned decisively bearish, with the stock price now trading below key averages, signalling a downtrend. This shift is corroborated by the weekly and monthly Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicators, both firmly in bearish territory, indicating sustained negative momentum over short and medium terms.

Further, the Bollinger Bands on weekly and monthly charts have expanded downward, confirming increased volatility and a bearish bias. The stock’s price action hugging the lower band suggests persistent selling pressure. The Know Sure Thing (KST) oscillator also aligns with this view, showing a weekly bearish stance and a mildly bearish monthly outlook, signalling that momentum is weakening but not yet at extreme levels.

RSI and On-Balance Volume: Neutral Signals Amidst Bearish Momentum

Interestingly, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on both weekly and monthly timeframes currently shows no clear signal, hovering in neutral zones without indicating oversold or overbought conditions. This suggests that while the stock is under pressure, it has not yet reached an extreme that might prompt a technical rebound.

Similarly, the On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator remains trendless on weekly and monthly charts, implying that volume flows have not decisively favoured buyers or sellers recently. This lack of volume confirmation adds caution to the bearish technical signals, indicating that the downtrend may not be accompanied by strong conviction from market participants.

Price Action and Volatility: Key Levels and Recent Performance

On 17 Feb 2026, TIL Ltd’s intraday high was ₹254.95, with a low of ₹217.70, closing near the day’s low. This wide range and close near the bottom highlight strong selling interest. The stock is currently trading closer to its 52-week low of ₹167.00 than its 52-week high of ₹405.00, emphasising the significant correction it has undergone over the past year.

The sharp decline of 15.9% in a single session is a notable event, especially when compared to the broader market. The Sensex, by contrast, has shown relatively muted movements, with a 1-week return of -0.94% and a 1-month return of -0.35%, underscoring TIL Ltd’s underperformance.

Comparative Returns: Underperformance Against Sensex Benchmarks

Examining TIL Ltd’s returns relative to the Sensex reveals a pattern of underperformance in recent periods. Over the past week, the stock has declined by 14.96%, vastly exceeding the Sensex’s modest 0.94% drop. Similarly, the 1-month return for TIL Ltd is -14.09%, compared to the Sensex’s -0.35%. Year-to-date, the stock has fallen 20.08%, while the Sensex is down only 2.28%.

However, on a longer horizon, TIL Ltd has outperformed the Sensex over the past year with a 13.68% gain versus 9.66% for the benchmark. Over three years, the stock’s 34.09% return is slightly below the Sensex’s 35.81%, and over five years, the gap widens with TIL Ltd at 21.69% against the Sensex’s 59.83%. The 10-year return starkly contrasts, with TIL Ltd down 35.23% while the Sensex surged 259.08%, highlighting the stock’s long-term challenges.

Mojo Score and Grade: Downgrade to Strong Sell

Reflecting the deteriorating technical and fundamental outlook, TIL Ltd’s Mojo Score currently stands at 3.0, with a Mojo Grade of Strong Sell. This represents a downgrade from the previous Sell rating on 22 Sep 2025. The Market Cap Grade remains at 3, indicating a mid-tier market capitalisation but insufficient to offset the negative momentum and technical weakness.

The downgrade is consistent with the bearish signals from multiple technical indicators and the stock’s sharp recent price declines. Investors are advised to exercise caution, as the technical landscape suggests further downside risk in the near term.

Technical Indicator Summary

To summarise the key technical signals:

• MACD: Weekly and monthly charts both bearish, indicating sustained negative momentum.
• RSI: Neutral on weekly and monthly timeframes, no oversold or overbought extremes.
• Bollinger Bands: Weekly and monthly bearish, with price near lower bands signalling selling pressure.
• Moving Averages: Daily averages bearish, with price below key moving averages.
• KST: Weekly bearish, monthly mildly bearish, suggesting weakening momentum.
• Dow Theory: Mildly bearish on weekly and monthly charts, confirming downtrend.
• OBV: No clear trend on weekly and monthly charts, indicating lack of volume confirmation.

Outlook and Investor Considerations

The confluence of bearish technical indicators and the sharp price decline suggests that TIL Ltd is currently in a downtrend phase with limited near-term upside. The absence of strong volume support and neutral RSI readings imply that while the stock is under pressure, it has not yet reached capitulation levels that might prompt a technical rebound.

Investors should weigh the stock’s recent underperformance against the broader market and consider the downgrade to Strong Sell in their portfolio decisions. The long-term return profile also indicates challenges in regaining past highs, with the 10-year return significantly lagging the Sensex.

Conclusion

TIL Ltd’s recent technical parameter changes highlight a clear shift towards bearish momentum, with multiple indicators confirming a weakening trend. The stock’s sharp decline of nearly 16% in a single day, combined with a downgrade to Strong Sell, signals caution for investors. While the RSI and OBV do not yet indicate oversold conditions or strong volume-driven moves, the overall technical landscape suggests further downside risk.

Comparative returns against the Sensex reinforce the stock’s underperformance in the short term, despite some positive annual returns. Given these factors, investors should carefully evaluate their exposure to TIL Ltd and consider alternative opportunities within the automobile sector or broader market that offer stronger momentum and fundamental support.

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