Transport Corporation of India Ltd Faces Bearish Momentum Amid Technical Downgrade

Technical Trend Shift and Market Context

TCI’s technical trend has transitioned from mildly bearish to outright bearish, reflecting growing investor caution. The stock closed at ₹1,043.90 on 17 February 2026, down 0.85% from the previous close of ₹1,052.80. Despite a high of ₹1,064.50 during the day, the inability to sustain gains underscores selling pressure. The 52-week range remains wide, with a high of ₹1,299.05 and a low of ₹875.20, indicating significant volatility over the past year.

Comparatively, TCI’s recent returns have been mixed against the broader Sensex benchmark. Over the past week, the stock declined by 5.91%, sharply underperforming the Sensex’s modest 0.94% drop. However, over the one-month horizon, TCI posted a 2.44% gain, outperforming the Sensex’s 0.35% loss. Year-to-date, the stock is down 3.04%, slightly worse than the Sensex’s 2.28% decline. Longer-term returns remain robust, with a five-year gain of 316.64% versus Sensex’s 59.83%, and a ten-year gain of 370.23% compared to Sensex’s 259.08%, highlighting the company’s strong historical performance despite recent headwinds.

MACD and Momentum Indicators Signal Bearishness

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator presents a bearish outlook on the weekly chart, signalling that downward momentum is gaining traction. The monthly MACD remains mildly bearish, suggesting that while the longer-term trend is weakening, it has not yet fully capitulated. This divergence between weekly and monthly MACD readings often precedes further downside, as short-term momentum deteriorates faster than the broader trend.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently shows no definitive signal on both weekly and monthly timeframes, hovering in a neutral zone. This lack of oversold or overbought conditions implies that the stock has room to move in either direction, but given other bearish indicators, the bias remains negative.

Moving Averages and Bollinger Bands Confirm Downtrend

Daily moving averages have turned bearish, with the stock trading below its key short-term and medium-term averages. This alignment typically signals sustained selling pressure and a lack of buying interest at current levels. The Bollinger Bands reinforce this view, showing bearish patterns on both weekly and monthly charts. The stock price is near the lower band, indicating increased volatility and a potential continuation of the downward trend rather than a reversal.

Additional Technical Indicators Paint a Mixed Picture

The Know Sure Thing (KST) oscillator aligns with the bearish narrative on the weekly chart, signalling downward momentum, while the monthly KST remains mildly bearish. This suggests that while short-term momentum is weakening, the longer-term trend has not fully turned negative but is under pressure.

Dow Theory readings offer a nuanced view: weekly data is mildly bullish, indicating some underlying strength or potential for short-term rallies, but the monthly perspective is mildly bearish, consistent with the overall weakening trend. This divergence highlights the stock’s current technical uncertainty and the need for cautious monitoring.

On-Balance Volume (OBV) analysis shows no clear trend on the weekly chart, but a mildly bullish signal on the monthly timeframe. This suggests that while volume has not decisively confirmed the price decline in the short term, longer-term accumulation may be occurring, potentially providing some support to the stock price.

Market Capitalisation and Mojo Ratings Reflect Caution

MarketsMOJO assigns TCI a Mojo Score of 44.0, categorising it as a Sell with a recent downgrade from Hold on 10 February 2026. The Market Cap Grade stands at 3, indicating a mid-tier capitalisation relative to peers in the transport services sector. This downgrade reflects the deteriorating technical parameters and the cautious outlook from the analytical community.

Investors should note that the stock’s day-to-day price changes remain volatile, with a recent intraday low of ₹1,043.90 and a high of ₹1,064.50, underscoring the ongoing tussle between buyers and sellers. The technical deterioration suggests that downside risks may persist unless there is a significant shift in volume or momentum indicators.

Investment Implications and Outlook

Given the current technical landscape, Transport Corporation of India Ltd appears to be under pressure with bearish momentum dominating short-term charts. The downgrade to Sell by MarketsMOJO aligns with the technical deterioration, signalling that investors should exercise caution. The absence of strong RSI signals suggests that the stock is not yet oversold, implying further downside potential before a meaningful rebound.

Long-term investors may find comfort in the company’s strong historical returns, with a 10-year gain of 370.23% significantly outperforming the Sensex’s 259.08%. However, the recent technical weakness and the downgrade indicate that the stock may face headwinds in the near term, particularly if broader market conditions remain volatile.

Traders and technical analysts should monitor key support levels near the 52-week low of ₹875.20, as a breach could accelerate selling pressure. Conversely, a sustained move above daily moving averages and a reversal in MACD momentum would be required to signal a potential recovery.

In summary, while Transport Corporation of India Ltd retains strong long-term fundamentals, the current technical signals and momentum shifts warrant a cautious stance. Investors should weigh these factors carefully and consider alternative opportunities within the transport services sector or broader market.

Unlock special upgrade rates for a limited period. Start Saving Now →