Key Events This Week
28 Sep: Technical momentum shifts bullish despite market weakness
28 Sep: Valuation concerns arise as price attractiveness diminishes
29 Sep: Technical momentum softens to mildly bullish amid mixed indicators
30 Sep: MarketsMOJO upgrades rating to Hold on improved financial trends
30 Sep: Technical momentum strengthens to bullish despite price decline
1 Oct: Momentum shifts mildly bullish with cautious market sentiment
28 September: Bullish Technical Momentum Amid Market Weakness
On 28 September, TVS Srichakra’s technical momentum notably shifted to a bullish stance despite the broader market’s decline. The stock closed at ₹4,498.95, down 2.46% from the previous close but outperformed the Sensex’s 1.60% drop. Key momentum indicators such as the MACD and moving averages signalled strengthening upward trends on weekly and monthly timeframes, while the RSI remained neutral, suggesting consolidation.
However, valuation concerns surfaced as the company’s price-to-earnings ratio rose to 34.34, categorising the stock as expensive relative to peers like Apollo Tyres and CEAT. The price-to-book value of 2.98 and elevated EV multiples further underscored stretched valuations, raising questions about price attractiveness despite strong historical returns.
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29 September: Mixed Technical Signals and Softening Momentum
The following day, the stock’s technical momentum softened to mildly bullish as it closed at ₹4,425.40, down 1.63%. Despite the decline, the MACD and Know Sure Thing (KST) indicators remained bullish on weekly and monthly charts, signalling underlying strength. Conversely, the weekly RSI turned bearish, reflecting short-term selling pressure. The On-Balance Volume (OBV) showed no clear weekly trend but remained bullish monthly, suggesting longer-term accumulation.
TVS Srichakra marginally outperformed the Sensex’s 0.48% decline on this day, but the mixed technical signals and recent downgrade to a Sell grade by MarketsMOJO highlighted caution. The stock’s 52-week range between ₹3,013.05 and ₹5,758.80 indicated significant volatility, with the current price near the mid-range.
30 September: Upgrade to Hold on Improved Financial and Technical Trends
On 30 September, MarketsMOJO upgraded TVS Srichakra’s rating from Sell to Hold, reflecting improved technical momentum and positive financial trends. The stock closed at ₹4,476.60, down 3.04%, but technical indicators such as the MACD and KST turned bullish on weekly and monthly timeframes. Moving averages also supported a bullish outlook, while the RSI remained neutral.
Financially, the company reported strong earnings growth with net sales rising 21.49% year-on-year to ₹2,965.06 crores and profit after tax surging 506.96% to ₹90.45 crores for the latest nine-month period. Despite an expensive valuation with a PE ratio of 33.01 and EV/EBITDA of 13.31, the upgrade acknowledged the company’s operational turnaround and market-beating returns over recent years.
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1 October: Mildly Bullish Momentum Amid Cautious Sentiment
On the final trading day of the week, TVS Srichakra’s momentum shifted to mildly bullish, closing at ₹4,476.60, up 1.16%. The MACD and KST indicators remained bullish on weekly and monthly charts, while the RSI stayed neutral. Bollinger Bands suggested mild bullishness, indicating contained volatility with a slight upward bias.
However, the Dow Theory and OBV presented mixed signals, mildly bearish on weekly scales but bullish monthly, reflecting short-term caution against a longer-term positive trend. The stock underperformed the Sensex over the week and month but maintained strong year-to-date and longer-term returns, highlighting resilience amid sector volatility.
| Date | Stock Price | Day Change | Sensex | Day Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | Rs.4,498.95 | -2.46% | 34,788.97 | -1.60% |
| 2026-09-29 | Rs.4,425.40 | -1.63% | 34,621.52 | -0.48% |
| 2026-09-30 | Rs.4,476.60 | +1.16% | 34,564.37 | -0.17% |
| 2026-10-01 | Rs.4,340.45 | -3.04% | 34,221.41 | -0.99% |
Key Takeaways
TVS Srichakra’s week was characterised by a complex interplay of technical and fundamental factors. The stock’s technical momentum oscillated between bullish and mildly bullish stances, supported by strong MACD and KST indicators on longer timeframes but tempered by mixed RSI and volume signals. The MarketsMOJO upgrade to Hold on 30 September reflected improved financial performance, including robust earnings growth and operational turnaround.
Valuation remains a concern, with the stock trading at a premium relative to peers, reflected in elevated PE and EV multiples. This premium valuation, combined with modest profitability ratios, suggests caution for investors considering new positions. The stock’s underperformance relative to the Sensex over the week and month contrasts with its strong year-to-date and multi-year returns, highlighting resilience amid sector volatility.
Short-term traders should be mindful of the mixed technical signals and potential volatility, while longer-term investors may find the company’s improving fundamentals and market-beating returns encouraging, albeit with a need for ongoing monitoring of leverage and sector dynamics.
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