Price Momentum and Recent Trading Activity
On 31 Dec 2025, TVS Supply Chain Solutions Ltd closed at ₹111.05, up from the previous close of ₹107.30, marking a daily gain of 3.49%. The stock traded within a range of ₹107.00 to ₹111.75 during the session. Despite this short-term strength, the stock remains significantly below its 52-week high of ₹180.90, while hovering just above its 52-week low of ₹100.25. This wide trading band underscores the volatility and challenges faced by the company over the past year.
Comparatively, the stock has outperformed the Sensex in the short term, delivering a 1-week return of 2.78% against the Sensex’s decline of 0.99%, and a 1-month return of 1.93% versus the Sensex’s 1.20% fall. However, the year-to-date (YTD) and 1-year returns remain deeply negative at -37.73% and -35.3% respectively, contrasting sharply with the Sensex’s robust gains of over 8% in the same periods. This divergence highlights the stock’s underperformance amid broader market strength.
Technical Indicator Analysis: MACD and RSI
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains bearish on the weekly timeframe, signalling that downward momentum still dominates in the near term. The monthly MACD reading is inconclusive, suggesting a lack of clear directional momentum over the longer term. This disparity between weekly and monthly MACD readings indicates that while short-term selling pressure persists, the longer-term trend may be stabilising.
Relative Strength Index (RSI) readings further complicate the picture. The weekly RSI currently shows no definitive signal, hovering in a neutral zone that neither confirms overbought nor oversold conditions. Conversely, the monthly RSI is bullish, implying that the stock may be gaining strength over a longer horizon. This bullish monthly RSI could be an early indication of a potential recovery if supported by other technical factors.
Moving Averages and Bollinger Bands
Daily moving averages remain bearish, reflecting that the stock price is trading below key short-term averages such as the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. This suggests that the recent price gains may be corrective rather than indicative of a sustained uptrend. Meanwhile, Bollinger Bands on both weekly and monthly charts are mildly bearish, signalling that volatility remains elevated and the stock is closer to the lower band, which often acts as a support level but also indicates downward pressure.
Additional Technical Signals: KST, Dow Theory, and OBV
The Know Sure Thing (KST) oscillator is bearish on the weekly timeframe, reinforcing the short-term negative momentum. Monthly KST data is unavailable, limiting longer-term interpretation. Dow Theory readings present a nuanced view: weekly data is mildly bullish, suggesting some short-term optimism, while monthly data remains bearish, indicating that the broader trend has yet to confirm a reversal.
On-Balance Volume (OBV) shows no clear trend on either weekly or monthly charts, implying that volume flow is not decisively supporting either buying or selling pressure. This lack of volume confirmation often signals caution for traders relying on momentum-based strategies.
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Mojo Score and Market Capitalisation Insights
TVS Supply Chain Solutions Ltd currently holds a Mojo Score of 34.0, categorised as a 'Sell' grade, an improvement from its previous 'Strong Sell' rating as of 30 Dec 2025. This upgrade reflects a modest improvement in technical and fundamental parameters but still signals caution for investors. The company’s market capitalisation grade stands at 3, indicating a mid-tier valuation relative to its peers in the transport services sector.
Sector and Industry Context
Operating within the transport services industry, TVS Supply faces sectoral headwinds including fluctuating fuel costs, regulatory changes, and evolving logistics demands. The stock’s technical indicators suggest that while short-term momentum is attempting to stabilise, the broader sector challenges continue to weigh on investor sentiment. The stock’s underperformance relative to the Sensex over the past year further emphasises the need for cautious appraisal.
Investor Considerations and Outlook
For investors, the mixed technical signals warrant a balanced approach. The mildly bearish weekly trend and bearish daily moving averages caution against aggressive buying, while the bullish monthly RSI and mildly bullish Dow Theory weekly reading offer some hope for a turnaround. The absence of volume confirmation via OBV suggests that any rally may lack strong conviction unless supported by increased buying interest.
Given the stock’s significant YTD and 1-year losses exceeding 35%, value investors may find the current price levels attractive if accompanied by fundamental improvements. However, momentum traders should remain vigilant for confirmation of trend reversals before committing capital.
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Summary
TVS Supply Chain Solutions Ltd’s recent technical parameter changes reflect a tentative shift from a strongly bearish stance to a mildly bearish one, with some monthly indicators hinting at potential recovery. The stock’s daily and weekly momentum indicators remain cautious, underscoring the need for investors to monitor key levels and volume trends closely. While short-term gains have been recorded, the stock’s significant underperformance relative to the broader market and mixed technical signals suggest that a clear directional trend has yet to emerge.
Investors should weigh these technical insights alongside fundamental developments and sector dynamics before making investment decisions. The current environment favours a watchful stance, with opportunities likely to arise if the stock confirms a sustained uptrend supported by volume and positive sector catalysts.
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