Technical Trend Evolution and Price Movement
UltraTech Cement’s share price closed at ₹12,537.60 on 3 Feb 2026, marking a 2.05% increase from the previous close of ₹12,285.90. The stock traded within a range of ₹12,198.95 to ₹12,599.95 during the day, approaching its 52-week high of ₹13,101.80. This upward price movement reflects a positive short-term momentum, although the stock remains below its peak, indicating room for further gains or potential resistance.
The technical trend has shifted from mildly bearish to sideways, signalling a pause in the previous downtrend and a potential consolidation phase. This transition is critical as it may set the stage for either a sustained rally or a renewed correction depending on forthcoming market catalysts.
MACD Signals: Divergent Weekly and Monthly Perspectives
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator presents a nuanced picture. On a weekly basis, the MACD is bullish, suggesting that momentum is gaining strength in the near term. This is a positive sign for traders looking for upward price movement in the coming weeks.
Conversely, the monthly MACD remains mildly bearish, indicating that the longer-term momentum has yet to fully confirm a sustained uptrend. This divergence between weekly and monthly MACD readings highlights the importance of monitoring both short- and long-term trends before making investment decisions.
RSI and Bollinger Bands: Neutral to Mildly Bullish Signals
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on both weekly and monthly charts currently shows no definitive signal, hovering in neutral territory. This suggests that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold, providing a balanced backdrop for potential price moves without extreme volatility.
Bollinger Bands, however, indicate a mildly bullish stance on both weekly and monthly timeframes. The stock price is trending near the upper band, which often signals strength but also warns of possible short-term pullbacks if the price becomes extended.
Our latest monthly pick, this Small Cap from Oil Exploration/Refineries, is showing strong performance since announcement! See why our Investment Committee chose it after screening 50+ candidates.
- - Investment Committee approved
- - 50+ candidates screened
- - Strong post-announcement performance
Moving Averages and KST: Mixed Signals Reflecting Market Uncertainty
Daily moving averages for UltraTech Cement are mildly bearish, indicating that the short-term price trend is under some pressure. This contrasts with weekly KST (Know Sure Thing) readings, which are mildly bullish, suggesting improving momentum over the medium term. However, the monthly KST remains mildly bearish, reinforcing the cautious tone for longer-term investors.
This blend of signals points to a market in flux, where short-term corrections may occur even as medium-term momentum attempts to build. Investors should watch for confirmation of trend direction through subsequent price action and volume changes.
Volume and Dow Theory Insights
On-Balance Volume (OBV) analysis shows a mildly bullish trend on the weekly chart, indicating that buying pressure is gradually increasing. However, the monthly OBV does not show a clear trend, suggesting that volume support for a sustained rally is not yet firmly established.
Dow Theory assessments align with this mixed picture: weekly signals are mildly bullish, while monthly signals show no definitive trend. This reinforces the notion that while short-term optimism is present, the longer-term trend remains uncertain.
Comparative Returns Highlight Strong Relative Performance
UltraTech Cement has outperformed the Sensex across multiple time horizons. Over the past week, the stock returned 1.37% compared to the Sensex’s 0.16%. The one-month return stands at 5.40%, sharply contrasting with the Sensex’s decline of 4.78%. Year-to-date, UltraTech has gained 6.38% while the Sensex is down 4.17%.
Longer-term returns are even more impressive, with the stock delivering 11.25% over one year versus the Sensex’s 5.37%, 74.81% over three years compared to 36.26% for the benchmark, and a remarkable 104.63% over five years against the Sensex’s 64.00%. Over a decade, UltraTech Cement has surged 346.29%, significantly outpacing the Sensex’s 232.80% gain.
These figures underscore the company’s strong market position and resilience within the cement sector, making it a noteworthy contender for investors seeking growth with moderate risk.
UltraTech Cement Ltd or something better? Our SwitchER feature analyzes this large-cap Cement & Cement Products stock and recommends superior alternatives based on fundamentals, momentum, and value!
- - SwitchER analysis complete
- - Superior alternatives found
- - Multi-parameter evaluation
Mojo Score and Rating Upgrade Reflect Improving Outlook
MarketsMOJO’s proprietary scoring system has upgraded UltraTech Cement’s Mojo Grade from Sell to Hold as of 28 Jan 2026, with a current Mojo Score of 54.0. This upgrade reflects an improved technical and fundamental outlook, signalling that while the stock is not yet a strong buy, it has moved out of negative territory and may offer stable returns.
The Market Cap Grade remains at 1, indicating that despite its large market capitalisation, the stock’s valuation and momentum metrics warrant a cautious stance. Investors should consider this rating in conjunction with technical signals and broader market conditions.
Outlook and Investor Considerations
UltraTech Cement’s technical indicators suggest a stock in transition. The shift from mildly bearish to sideways trend, combined with bullish weekly MACD and Bollinger Bands, points to potential near-term strength. However, the absence of strong monthly momentum and mixed moving average signals counsel prudence.
Investors should monitor key support levels near ₹12,000 and resistance around the 52-week high of ₹13,101.80. A sustained break above this high could confirm a bullish breakout, while a failure to hold support may signal renewed weakness.
Given the stock’s strong relative performance versus the Sensex and the recent upgrade in Mojo Grade, UltraTech Cement remains a viable option for investors seeking exposure to the cement sector with a balanced risk profile. However, the mixed technical signals warrant a watchful approach, ideally complemented by fundamental analysis and sector outlook.
Summary
In summary, UltraTech Cement Ltd is exhibiting a cautious but improving technical momentum. The interplay of bullish weekly indicators and neutral to mildly bearish monthly signals suggests a consolidation phase with potential for upside. The recent Mojo Grade upgrade to Hold supports this view, although investors should remain vigilant for confirmation of trend direction through price and volume action.
As always, a comprehensive investment decision should integrate technical analysis with fundamental insights and market context to optimise portfolio outcomes.
Upgrade at special rates, valid only for the next few days. Claim Your Special Rate →
