Technical Trend Overview and Momentum Indicators
UltraTech Cement’s technical trend has shifted from a clear bearish stance to a mildly bearish one, signalling a potential easing of downward pressure but not yet a definitive recovery. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains bearish on the weekly chart, while the monthly MACD has improved slightly to mildly bearish. This suggests that while short-term momentum is still weak, longer-term momentum is showing tentative signs of stabilisation.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements, currently shows no clear signal on both weekly and monthly timeframes. This neutral RSI reading indicates that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold, implying a consolidation phase rather than a strong directional move.
Bollinger Bands, which measure volatility and potential price extremes, present a contrasting view: bearish on the weekly chart but bullish on the monthly. The weekly bearish signal suggests short-term price pressure, while the monthly bullish indication points to a longer-term potential for upward price movement or at least reduced volatility.
Moving Averages and Other Technical Signals
Daily moving averages for UltraTech Cement are mildly bearish, reflecting recent price action that has hovered just above the previous close of ₹11,709.25, with the current price at ₹11,785.45. The stock’s intraday range on the latest trading session was between ₹11,681.00 and ₹11,797.95, showing limited volatility but a slight upward bias.
The Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator, which aggregates multiple rate-of-change calculations, remains bearish on the weekly chart but has improved to mildly bearish on the monthly. This aligns with the MACD’s mixed signals and suggests that momentum is weakening on a short-term basis but could be stabilising over the longer term.
According to Dow Theory, there is no clear trend on the weekly timeframe, while the monthly trend remains mildly bearish. This lack of a definitive weekly trend highlights the stock’s current consolidation phase, with investors awaiting clearer directional cues.
On-Balance Volume (OBV), which measures buying and selling pressure based on volume flow, is mildly bullish on the weekly chart but mildly bearish on the monthly. This divergence indicates that while recent volume trends support some buying interest, the longer-term volume trend remains cautious.
Price Performance Relative to Benchmarks
UltraTech Cement’s price performance relative to the Sensex index reveals a nuanced picture. Over the past week, the stock gained 0.21%, outperforming the Sensex which declined by 0.22%. Over the past month, UltraTech Cement rose by 0.80%, while the Sensex fell by 0.49%. However, year-to-date and one-year returns show the stock lagging behind the Sensex, with UltraTech Cement up 3.20% compared to the Sensex’s 9.06% gain.
Longer-term returns are more favourable for UltraTech Cement. Over three years, the stock has delivered a robust 69.35% return, significantly outperforming the Sensex’s 40.07%. Over five years, the stock’s return of 123.01% also surpasses the Sensex’s 78.47%, and over a decade, UltraTech Cement has delivered an impressive 323.18% return compared to the Sensex’s 226.30%. These figures underscore the company’s strong fundamental positioning and growth potential despite recent technical caution.
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Mojo Score and Market Capitalisation Insights
UltraTech Cement currently holds a Mojo Score of 48.0, which corresponds to a Sell rating, downgraded from a previous Hold grade on 3 December 2025. This downgrade reflects the recent deterioration in technical momentum and the cautious outlook from MarketsMOJO’s proprietary scoring system. The company’s Market Cap Grade remains at 1, indicating a large-cap status but with limited positive momentum in market capitalisation metrics.
The downgrade to Sell signals that despite the stock’s strong long-term fundamentals and historical outperformance, near-term technical factors and momentum indicators warrant caution. Investors should be mindful of the mildly bearish technical trend and the mixed signals from volume and momentum oscillators.
Sector and Industry Context
Operating within the Cement & Cement Products sector, UltraTech Cement faces sector-specific challenges such as fluctuating input costs, regulatory changes, and demand variability linked to infrastructure and real estate cycles. The current technical signals may partly reflect these sector headwinds, as well as broader market volatility. The mixed technical indicators suggest that while the stock is not in a clear downtrend, it is also not positioned for a strong breakout in the immediate term.
Investors should consider these sector dynamics alongside the technical analysis when evaluating UltraTech Cement’s near-term prospects.
Summary and Outlook
In summary, UltraTech Cement Ltd’s technical parameters reveal a nuanced momentum shift. The transition from bearish to mildly bearish trends across multiple indicators such as MACD, KST, and moving averages suggests a tentative stabilisation but no clear bullish reversal. The neutral RSI and mixed Bollinger Bands readings further reinforce the view of consolidation rather than decisive directional movement.
Price action remains relatively stable, with the stock trading near ₹11,785, close to its recent close of ₹11,709.25. While short-term volume trends show mild buying interest, longer-term volume and momentum indicators counsel caution. The downgrade in Mojo Grade to Sell reflects these technical concerns despite the company’s strong long-term returns and market position.
Investors should monitor upcoming price and volume developments closely, particularly any shifts in MACD or RSI that could signal renewed momentum. Given the mixed signals, a wait-and-watch approach may be prudent until clearer technical confirmation emerges.
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Technical Indicators at a Glance:
MACD: Weekly - Bearish; Monthly - Mildly Bearish
RSI: Weekly & Monthly - No Signal
Bollinger Bands: Weekly - Bearish; Monthly - Bullish
Moving Averages: Daily - Mildly Bearish
KST: Weekly - Bearish; Monthly - Mildly Bearish
Dow Theory: Weekly - No Trend; Monthly - Mildly Bearish
OBV: Weekly - Mildly Bullish; Monthly - Mildly Bearish
Price Range and Returns:
Current Price: ₹11,785.45 | Previous Close: ₹11,709.25 | 52-Week High: ₹13,101.80 | 52-Week Low: ₹10,053.00
Returns vs Sensex:
1 Week: +0.21% vs -0.22%
1 Month: +0.80% vs -0.49%
Year-to-Date & 1 Year: +3.20% vs +9.06%
3 Years: +69.35% vs +40.07%
5 Years: +123.01% vs +78.47%
10 Years: +323.18% vs +226.30%
Conclusion
UltraTech Cement Ltd’s technical landscape as of January 2026 is characterised by a cautious but stabilising momentum profile. While the downgrade to a Sell rating by MarketsMOJO reflects near-term technical challenges, the company’s strong historical returns and sector positioning provide a foundation for potential recovery. Investors should weigh these technical signals alongside fundamental factors and broader market conditions before making investment decisions.
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