UltraTech Cement Ltd Technical Momentum Shifts Amid Mixed Indicator Signals

Current Price and Market Context

As of 17 Feb 2026, UltraTech Cement Ltd closed at ₹12,954.90, slightly down by 0.08% from the previous close of ₹12,964.65. The stock traded within a range of ₹12,861.00 to ₹12,997.55 during the day, remaining close to its 52-week high of ₹13,104.00. This proximity to the peak price level underscores the stock's sustained strength in the cement sector, despite recent technical adjustments.

Technical Trend Evolution

The technical trend for UltraTech Cement has shifted from bullish to mildly bullish, signalling a tempering of the previous strong upward momentum. This nuanced change reflects a consolidation phase where the stock is digesting gains before potentially embarking on the next leg of its price journey.

MACD Analysis

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator presents a mixed picture. On the weekly chart, MACD remains bullish, suggesting that short-term momentum is still positive. However, the monthly MACD has turned mildly bearish, indicating that longer-term momentum is weakening. This divergence between weekly and monthly MACD readings suggests that while near-term price action may hold up, investors should be cautious about the sustainability of the rally over the coming months.

RSI Signals

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the weekly timeframe has turned bearish, signalling that the stock may be entering an overbought or weakening momentum phase in the short term. Conversely, the monthly RSI does not currently provide a clear signal, reflecting a neutral stance on longer-term momentum. This disparity highlights the importance of monitoring RSI closely for potential shifts in buying or selling pressure.

Bollinger Bands and Moving Averages

Bollinger Bands indicate a mildly bullish stance on the weekly chart and a bullish outlook on the monthly chart. This suggests that price volatility remains contained within an upward trending channel, supporting the possibility of further gains. Meanwhile, daily moving averages continue to be bullish, reinforcing the short-term positive momentum and indicating that the stock price is trading above key average levels.

KST and Dow Theory Perspectives

The Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator aligns with the MACD, showing bullish momentum on the weekly scale but mildly bearish signals on the monthly chart. Dow Theory analysis reveals no clear trend on the weekly timeframe but confirms a bullish trend on the monthly scale. These mixed signals reinforce the notion of a stock in transition, with short-term strength counterbalanced by longer-term caution.

Volume and On-Balance Volume (OBV)

On-Balance Volume (OBV) readings show no definitive trend on either weekly or monthly charts, suggesting that volume is not currently confirming price movements. This lack of volume confirmation may imply that the recent price action is not strongly supported by trading activity, warranting careful observation for any volume spikes that could validate future directional moves.

Comparative Returns and Market Performance

UltraTech Cement Ltd has demonstrated robust returns relative to the Sensex benchmark across multiple periods. Over the past week, the stock declined by 0.70%, slightly outperforming the Sensex's 0.94% fall. Over one month, the stock surged 4.71%, contrasting with the Sensex's marginal 0.35% decline. Year-to-date, UltraTech has gained 9.92%, while the Sensex is down 2.28%. Over one year, the stock's return of 15.08% comfortably exceeds the Sensex's 9.66% gain.

Longer-term performance is even more impressive, with three-year returns of 80.68% versus 35.81% for the Sensex, five-year returns of 100.30% compared to 59.83%, and a remarkable ten-year return of 364.18% against the Sensex's 259.08%. These figures underscore UltraTech Cement's strong market position and consistent value creation over time.

Mojo Score and Rating Revision

MarketsMOJO has recently revised UltraTech Cement's Mojo Grade from Buy to Hold as of 16 Feb 2026, reflecting the evolving technical landscape. The current Mojo Score stands at 64.0, indicating moderate confidence in the stock's near-term prospects. The Market Cap Grade remains at 1, signalling a large-cap status with stable market capitalisation.

Investor Implications and Outlook

The shift from a bullish to a mildly bullish technical trend suggests that investors should adopt a more measured approach. While short-term indicators such as daily moving averages and weekly MACD remain positive, caution is warranted given the bearish weekly RSI and monthly MACD signals. The absence of volume confirmation further emphasises the need for vigilance.

Investors may consider monitoring key support levels near ₹12,800 and resistance around the 52-week high of ₹13,104. A sustained break above this high could reignite bullish momentum, while a drop below support may signal a deeper correction. Given the stock's strong historical outperformance relative to the Sensex, maintaining a Hold rating aligns with the current technical and fundamental outlook.

Sector and Industry Context

Operating within the Cement & Cement Products sector, UltraTech Cement continues to benefit from steady demand driven by infrastructure development and urbanisation trends in India. The sector has witnessed volatility due to fluctuating input costs and regulatory changes, but UltraTech's scale and operational efficiency have helped it maintain a competitive edge.

Technical indicators suggest that while the stock is consolidating, the underlying fundamentals remain intact. Investors should weigh sector dynamics alongside technical signals to make informed decisions.

Conclusion

UltraTech Cement Ltd's recent technical parameter changes reflect a nuanced shift in momentum. While short-term indicators remain supportive, longer-term signals advise caution. The stock's strong historical returns and relative outperformance versus the Sensex provide a solid foundation, but the downgrade from Buy to Hold by MarketsMOJO highlights the need for prudent monitoring.

Investors are advised to watch for confirmation of trend direction through volume and price action in the coming weeks. Maintaining a balanced perspective that integrates technical analysis with fundamental insights will be key to navigating UltraTech Cement's evolving market landscape.

Unlock special upgrade rates for a limited period. Start Saving Now →