Technical Trend Upgrade Signals Growing Confidence
Recent analysis reveals that UltraTech Cement’s technical trend has upgraded from mildly bullish to bullish, reflecting increased investor confidence in the stock’s near-term price trajectory. The daily moving averages have turned decisively bullish, signalling that short-term momentum is gaining traction. The stock’s current price stands at ₹12,972.00, virtually unchanged from the previous close of ₹12,971.60, but trading within a tight range between ₹12,841.35 and ₹13,002.15 today, indicating consolidation near its 52-week high of ₹13,104.00.
The weekly MACD indicator is firmly bullish, suggesting positive momentum over the past several weeks. However, the monthly MACD remains mildly bearish, indicating some caution among longer-term investors. This divergence between weekly and monthly MACD readings highlights a transitional phase where short-term strength is emerging but longer-term trends have yet to fully confirm a sustained uptrend.
RSI and Bollinger Bands Paint a Mixed Picture
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on both weekly and monthly timeframes currently shows no definitive signal, hovering in neutral zones. This lack of extreme RSI readings suggests the stock is neither overbought nor oversold, providing room for further price appreciation without immediate risk of a sharp reversal.
Bollinger Bands, however, are signalling bullish momentum on both weekly and monthly charts. The stock price is trading near the upper band, which often indicates strong buying pressure and potential continuation of the upward trend. This technical setup supports the notion that UltraTech Cement is poised for further gains, provided it can maintain support above key moving averages.
Moving Averages and KST Indicator Confirm Short-Term Strength
Daily moving averages have turned bullish, with the stock price comfortably above its short-term averages, reinforcing the positive momentum. The KST (Know Sure Thing) indicator, a momentum oscillator, is bullish on the weekly timeframe but mildly bearish on the monthly chart. This again reflects a scenario where short-term momentum is improving faster than the longer-term trend, a common pattern during early stages of a sustained rally.
Dow Theory analysis shows no clear trend on the weekly chart but a bullish trend on the monthly timeframe, suggesting that while weekly price action remains uncertain, the broader monthly trend favours upside potential.
Volume and On-Balance Volume (OBV) Remain Neutral
On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicators on both weekly and monthly charts show no clear trend, indicating that volume flow has not decisively confirmed the price moves. This neutrality in volume metrics suggests that while price momentum is improving, it is not yet fully supported by strong accumulation or distribution patterns.
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Comparative Returns Highlight Strong Outperformance
UltraTech Cement’s price momentum is further validated by its impressive returns relative to the Sensex benchmark. Over the past week, the stock declined marginally by 0.32%, outperforming the Sensex’s sharper fall of 0.98%. Over the last month, UltraTech surged 4.84% while the Sensex was down 0.14%, and year-to-date gains stand at 10.07% compared to the Sensex’s negative 2.08%.
Longer-term returns are even more compelling. Over one year, the stock has appreciated 13.18%, outpacing the Sensex’s 9.81%. Over three years, UltraTech Cement has delivered a stellar 77.71% return, more than double the Sensex’s 36.80%. The five-year and ten-year returns are equally impressive at 102.06% and 367.47%, respectively, compared to the Sensex’s 61.40% and 256.90%. These figures underscore the company’s consistent ability to generate superior shareholder value over multiple time horizons.
Mojo Score Downgrade Reflects Cautious Outlook
Despite the positive technical momentum, MarketsMOJO has downgraded UltraTech Cement’s Mojo Grade from Buy to Hold as of 16 Feb 2026, with a current Mojo Score of 64.0. This downgrade reflects a more cautious stance, likely influenced by mixed monthly technical signals and the company’s market cap grade of 1, indicating a very large-cap status with limited upside relative to smaller peers.
The Hold rating suggests investors should monitor the stock closely for confirmation of sustained bullish trends before committing additional capital, especially given the neutral volume indicators and the divergence between weekly and monthly momentum oscillators.
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Outlook and Investor Considerations
UltraTech Cement’s technical indicators suggest a stock in transition, with short-term momentum strengthening while longer-term signals remain mixed. Investors should weigh the bullish daily and weekly MACD and moving averages against the mildly bearish monthly MACD and KST indicators. The neutral RSI and OBV readings imply that the stock is not currently overextended, allowing room for further gains if buying interest intensifies.
Given the company’s strong historical returns and leadership position in the cement sector, the current technical momentum shift could mark the beginning of a sustained rally phase. However, the recent downgrade to a Hold rating by MarketsMOJO advises prudence, recommending that investors seek confirmation of trend continuation before increasing exposure.
In summary, UltraTech Cement Ltd presents a technically improving profile with solid relative performance versus the Sensex, but mixed signals on monthly charts and cautious analyst ratings suggest a balanced approach is warranted. Monitoring key support levels near ₹12,800 and resistance around the 52-week high of ₹13,104 will be critical for assessing the stock’s next directional move.
Summary of Key Technical Indicators:
- MACD: Weekly - Bullish; Monthly - Mildly Bearish
- RSI: Weekly & Monthly - Neutral (No Signal)
- Bollinger Bands: Weekly & Monthly - Bullish
- Moving Averages: Daily - Bullish
- KST: Weekly - Bullish; Monthly - Mildly Bearish
- Dow Theory: Weekly - No Trend; Monthly - Bullish
- OBV: Weekly & Monthly - No Trend
Price and Volume Snapshot:
- Current Price: ₹12,972.00
- Previous Close: ₹12,971.60
- 52-Week High: ₹13,104.00
- 52-Week Low: ₹10,053.00
- Today’s High: ₹13,002.15
- Today’s Low: ₹12,841.35
Returns Comparison with Sensex:
- 1 Week: -0.32% vs Sensex -0.98%
- 1 Month: +4.84% vs Sensex -0.14%
- Year-to-Date: +10.07% vs Sensex -2.08%
- 1 Year: +13.18% vs Sensex +9.81%
- 3 Years: +77.71% vs Sensex +36.80%
- 5 Years: +102.06% vs Sensex +61.40%
- 10 Years: +367.47% vs Sensex +256.90%
Mojo Score and Grade: 64.0 (Hold), downgraded from Buy on 16 Feb 2026
Industry and Sector: Cement & Cement Products
Market Capitalisation Grade: 1 (Large Cap)
Day Change: 0.00%
Conclusion
UltraTech Cement Ltd’s recent technical parameter changes reflect a strengthening price momentum with bullish signals dominating short-term charts. However, mixed monthly indicators and a cautious Mojo Grade downgrade suggest investors should adopt a measured approach. The stock’s strong relative performance against the Sensex and solid historical returns provide a compelling backdrop for potential upside, contingent on confirmation of sustained bullish trends.
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