Open Interest and Volume Dynamics
On 23 Jan 2026, UltraTech Cement’s open interest (OI) in futures contracts rose sharply by 10,554 contracts, a 13.24% increase from the previous day’s 79,713 to 90,267. This substantial rise in OI indicates fresh positions being established rather than existing ones being squared off, reflecting heightened interest in the stock’s near-term prospects.
Volume in futures contracts stood at 60,822, supporting the OI increase and confirming active trading. The futures market value was ₹1,10,393.15 lakhs, while the options segment exhibited an enormous notional value of ₹27,247.87 crores, underscoring the stock’s prominence in the derivatives space. The combined derivatives turnover reached ₹1,12,923.04 lakhs, signalling robust liquidity and investor engagement.
The underlying stock price closed at ₹12,451, marking a 0.82% gain on the day, outperforming the Cement & Cement Products sector which declined by 0.49%, and the broader Sensex which slipped 0.23%. This relative strength is further highlighted by the stock’s three-day consecutive gains, cumulatively rising 3.32%, and trading above all key moving averages – 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day – indicating a sustained uptrend.
Market Positioning and Investor Behaviour
The surge in open interest alongside rising prices and volumes suggests that market participants are increasingly bullish on UltraTech Cement. The fresh long positions being built in futures contracts imply expectations of further price appreciation. However, it is noteworthy that delivery volumes have declined by 17.19% compared to the five-day average, with 1.88 lakh shares delivered on 22 Jan. This drop in delivery volume may indicate that short-term traders and speculators are dominating activity rather than long-term investors.
Liquidity remains ample, with the stock’s average traded value supporting trade sizes of up to ₹8.09 crores based on 2% of the five-day average traded value. This liquidity facilitates smooth execution of large trades without significant price impact, attracting institutional and high-frequency traders.
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Technical and Fundamental Assessment
UltraTech Cement’s technical indicators reinforce the bullish narrative. The stock’s price comfortably trading above all major moving averages signals strong upward momentum and investor confidence. The three-day consecutive gains and outperformance relative to sector and benchmark indices further validate this trend.
From a fundamental perspective, the company remains a heavyweight in the Cement & Cement Products sector with a market capitalisation of ₹3,67,317.59 crores, categorised as a large-cap stock. Despite the recent downgrade in its Mojo Grade from Hold to Sell on 3 Dec 2025, with a current Mojo Score of 48.0, the market appears to be pricing in near-term positive catalysts or technical strength that may override the cautious fundamental outlook.
The Market Cap Grade of 1 indicates the company’s significant size and influence in the sector, but the Mojo Grade downgrade suggests some concerns around valuation or earnings momentum. Investors should weigh these factors carefully when interpreting the derivatives market activity.
Directional Bets and Potential Market Implications
The sharp increase in open interest combined with rising prices and volumes points to a predominantly bullish positioning by traders. This could be driven by expectations of improved demand in the cement sector, cost efficiencies, or positive macroeconomic developments supporting infrastructure growth.
However, the decline in delivery volumes hints at a cautious approach by long-term investors, possibly awaiting clearer fundamental triggers before committing fully. The derivatives market activity may thus be dominated by short-term traders capitalising on technical momentum and volatility.
Investors should monitor upcoming quarterly results, sectoral demand trends, and broader economic indicators to assess whether this bullish positioning is sustainable or a short-lived speculative move.
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Conclusion: Weighing the Risks and Opportunities
UltraTech Cement’s recent surge in open interest and volume in the derivatives market reflects a growing bullish sentiment among traders, supported by positive price action and technical strength. The stock’s outperformance relative to its sector and the Sensex, along with sustained gains over multiple sessions, suggests momentum is firmly in favour of the bulls.
Nevertheless, the downgrade in Mojo Grade to Sell and falling delivery volumes indicate caution among fundamental investors. This divergence between technical momentum and fundamental outlook warrants a balanced approach.
For investors and traders, the current market positioning offers opportunities to capitalise on short-term price appreciation, but it is prudent to remain vigilant for any shifts in sector dynamics or company fundamentals that could alter the trend.
Monitoring open interest trends, volume patterns, and delivery participation will be key to understanding the evolving market sentiment around UltraTech Cement in the coming weeks.
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