Open Interest and Volume Dynamics
On the last trading day of 2025, United Spirits recorded an open interest (OI) of 44,854 contracts, up from 40,171 the previous day, marking an absolute increase of 4,683 contracts or 11.66%. This rise in OI suggests fresh positions being established rather than existing ones being squared off, indicating increased conviction among traders. The day's volume stood at 29,718 contracts, reflecting robust participation in the derivatives market relative to the OI.
The futures segment contributed a value of approximately ₹22,040.63 lakhs, while the options segment's notional value was significantly higher at ₹14,837.32 crores, culminating in a total derivatives value of ₹24,404.03 lakhs. This substantial options activity underscores the growing interest in hedging or speculative strategies around United Spirits.
Price Performance and Moving Averages
Despite the surge in derivatives activity, United Spirits’ stock price underperformed the beverages sector by 1.66% on the day, closing near an intraday low of ₹1,390, down 3.72%. The weighted average price indicated that most volume traded closer to the day's low, signalling selling pressure. The stock’s 1-day return was -2.60%, contrasting with the sector’s modest decline of -0.79% and the Sensex’s slight gain of 0.12%.
Technically, the stock remains above its 100-day moving average but trades below the 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages. This mixed technical picture suggests short-term weakness amid longer-term support, which may be influencing the cautious stance of investors.
Investor Participation and Liquidity
Delivery volume on 31 Dec fell sharply by 30.07% to 4.75 lakh shares compared to the 5-day average, indicating reduced investor participation in the cash segment. However, liquidity remains adequate, with the stock’s traded value supporting a trade size of approximately ₹3.1 crore based on 2% of the 5-day average traded value. This liquidity profile facilitates active trading in both cash and derivatives markets.
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Market Positioning and Potential Directional Bets
The increase in open interest alongside a declining stock price and volume concentration near the lows suggests that market participants may be positioning for further downside or hedging existing long exposures. The elevated options value points to active put buying or call selling strategies, which typically reflect bearish or cautious sentiment.
However, the stock’s Mojo Score of 71.0 and an upgraded Mojo Grade from Hold to Buy as of 29 Dec 2025 indicate improving fundamentals and positive medium-term prospects. This upgrade, combined with the stock’s large-cap status and a market capitalisation of ₹1,04,444 crore, may attract institutional interest seeking to accumulate on dips.
Investors should note the divergence between derivatives activity and cash market performance. While derivatives suggest increased speculative or hedging activity, the underlying fundamentals and technical support at the 100-day moving average may limit downside risk.
Sector and Broader Market Context
Within the beverages sector, United Spirits’ underperformance relative to the sector’s 1-day return of -0.79% highlights stock-specific pressures. The broader market, represented by the Sensex, posted a marginal gain of 0.12%, indicating that the weakness in United Spirits is not reflective of overall market sentiment.
Given the sector’s sensitivity to consumer discretionary spending and regulatory factors, investors should monitor upcoming earnings, policy announcements, and macroeconomic indicators that could influence demand and pricing power for United Spirits.
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Outlook and Investor Considerations
United Spirits’ recent derivatives activity signals a market in flux, with increased open interest reflecting both speculative interest and hedging amid price weakness. The stock’s technical positioning above the 100-day moving average provides a key support level, while the Mojo Grade upgrade to Buy suggests improving company fundamentals and positive medium-term outlook.
Investors should weigh the short-term bearish signals from derivatives and price action against the longer-term fundamental improvements. Monitoring open interest trends, volume patterns, and price movements in the coming sessions will be crucial to gauge whether the current positioning translates into sustained directional moves.
Given the stock’s liquidity and large-cap status, United Spirits remains a viable candidate for strategic portfolio allocation, especially for investors seeking exposure to the beverages sector with a focus on quality and growth potential.
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