Vardhman Special Steels Ltd Sees Mixed Technical Signals Amid Sideways Momentum

Price Momentum and Recent Performance

On 28 January 2026, Vardhman Special Steels Ltd closed at ₹253.25, up from the previous close of ₹245.15, marking a daily gain of 3.3%. The intraday range saw a low of ₹245.90 and a high of ₹259.60, indicating some volatility but a positive bias. The stock remains well below its 52-week high of ₹322.35 but comfortably above its 52-week low of ₹178.30, suggesting a recovery phase after a period of weakness.

Comparing returns with the broader Sensex index reveals a nuanced performance. Over the past week and month, Vardhman Special Steels has underperformed, with returns of -3.85% and -9.62% respectively, against Sensex’s -0.39% and -3.74%. Year-to-date, the stock is down 11.03%, lagging the Sensex’s 3.95% decline. However, over longer horizons, the stock has significantly outpaced the benchmark, delivering 20.00% over one year, 64.98% over three years, 339.29% over five years, and an impressive 1215.57% over ten years, underscoring its strong long-term growth trajectory.

Technical Indicator Analysis: MACD and RSI

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains mildly bearish on both weekly and monthly charts. This suggests that the momentum is still somewhat subdued, with the MACD line below the signal line, indicating potential selling pressure or consolidation. However, the bearishness is mild, implying that a reversal or sideways movement is plausible in the near term.

In contrast, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the weekly timeframe has turned bullish, signalling improving momentum and potential upward price movement. The weekly RSI’s bullish stance suggests that the stock is gaining strength in the short term, possibly reflecting the recent price uptick. The monthly RSI, however, remains neutral with no clear signal, indicating that longer-term momentum has yet to decisively shift.

Moving Averages and Bollinger Bands

Daily moving averages have turned mildly bullish, with short-term averages crossing above longer-term ones, a classic sign of positive momentum. This crossover often attracts buyers and can lead to sustained upward trends if supported by volume and other indicators.

Bollinger Bands present a mixed picture. On the weekly chart, they remain mildly bearish, suggesting that price volatility is still skewed towards downside risk or consolidation. The monthly Bollinger Bands are outright bearish, indicating that the stock is trading near the lower band and may be under pressure over the longer term. This divergence between daily and monthly signals highlights the importance of timeframe in technical analysis.

Additional Technical Signals: KST, Dow Theory, and OBV

The Know Sure Thing (KST) oscillator remains mildly bearish on both weekly and monthly charts, reinforcing the cautious tone from MACD. This suggests that while short-term momentum may be improving, the broader trend is still under pressure.

Dow Theory readings provide a more optimistic outlook, with no clear trend on the weekly timeframe but a mildly bullish signal on the monthly chart. This indicates that the primary trend may be shifting towards a more positive phase, though confirmation is needed.

On-Balance Volume (OBV) analysis shows no trend on the weekly chart and a mildly bearish stance monthly, implying that volume is not strongly supporting price advances. This lack of volume confirmation could limit the sustainability of recent gains.

Market Capitalisation and Mojo Ratings

Vardhman Special Steels Ltd holds a market cap grade of 3, reflecting its mid-tier size within the Iron & Steel Products sector. The company’s Mojo Score currently stands at 47.0, with a Mojo Grade downgraded from Hold to Sell as of 23 January 2026. This downgrade reflects the mixed technical signals and recent underperformance relative to the broader market, signalling caution for investors.

Despite the downgrade, the stock’s long-term returns remain impressive, suggesting that investors with a longer horizon may still find value, provided they monitor technical developments closely.

Contextualising Vardhman Special Steels’ Technical Position

Within the Iron & Steel Products sector, Vardhman Special Steels’ technical indicators suggest a stock in transition. The shift from mildly bearish to sideways trend on the weekly charts indicates a potential pause in the downtrend, but the absence of strong bullish confirmation on monthly indicators tempers enthusiasm.

Investors should note the divergence between short-term bullish signals such as the daily moving averages and weekly RSI, and the more cautious monthly indicators like MACD, Bollinger Bands, and OBV. This divergence often precedes a decisive move, either a breakout or a further correction.

Given the stock’s recent underperformance relative to the Sensex over the past month and year-to-date, alongside the downgrade in Mojo Grade, a conservative approach is advisable. Monitoring volume trends and confirmation from monthly indicators will be key to identifying a sustainable trend reversal.

Investment Implications and Outlook

For traders, the mildly bullish daily moving averages and weekly RSI may offer short-term trading opportunities, especially if supported by volume and a break above recent highs near ₹260. However, the broader technical landscape suggests caution, with monthly indicators signalling potential resistance and volatility ahead.

Long-term investors should weigh the stock’s strong historical returns against current technical caution. The downgrade to a Sell grade by MarketsMOJO reflects the need for prudence, particularly given the stock’s recent relative weakness and mixed momentum signals.

Overall, Vardhman Special Steels Ltd is at a technical crossroads. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether the sideways momentum consolidates into a bullish trend or reverts to bearish pressure. Investors should remain vigilant and consider technical signals in conjunction with fundamental developments and sector dynamics.

Summary

Vardhman Special Steels Ltd’s technical parameters reveal a nuanced momentum shift. While short-term indicators such as daily moving averages and weekly RSI have improved, longer-term signals including MACD, Bollinger Bands, and OBV remain cautious or bearish. The stock’s recent price gains contrast with underperformance against the Sensex over recent weeks and months, leading to a downgrade in its Mojo Grade to Sell. Investors should approach with caution, balancing the stock’s impressive long-term returns against current mixed technical signals and sector headwinds.

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